The postseason begins without the Ravens for just the second time since 2018. Might Tyler Loop’s missed 44-yard field goal cost John Harbaugh his job?
Former Houston Oilers coach Jerry Glanville said the NFL acronym stands for “Not For Long,” and there’s always a chance Baltimore moves on from its long-tenured, remarkably successful coach despite just three losing seasons in 18 years.
I’d expect Harbaugh to be safe, given he signed a three-year extension last March. But any firing would likely happen today, an annual fixture the Associated Press nicknamed “Black Monday” in 1998.
Inside: The final playoff picture and draft order.
Plus, Atlanta’s Raheem Morris was the first coach fired this week (along with GM Terry Fontenot), Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski was second, and moments ago, the Raiders announced Pete Carroll is out after one year. Others could join today. Zac Taylor’s staying put in Cincinnati, though.
For the latest coaching updates, check out our live tracker. Let’s roll.
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Coaches to watch on Black Monday
In addition to the news above, we’ve seen the Colts retain general manager Chris Ballard and coach Shane Steichen, while the Falcons’ house-cleaning could make way for Matt Ryan atop the org chart 👀. Teams I was watching:
Browns: GM Andrew Berry’s future might’ve been saved by the success of the 2025 draft class. For other teams, the 45-56 Stefanski is now among the top coaching candidates after Cleveland moved on from the two-time Coach of the Year (earned by taking the Browns to their only two playoff trips since 2002).
Cardinals: Jonathan Gannon has failed to replicate the defensive success he had in Philadelphia, fielding a below-average unit in each of his three seasons in Arizona. After yesterday’s loss to the Rams, his 15-35 record is the worst among all active coaches. Gannon was fired earlier today.
Raiders: The Carroll experiment was an immediate dud. But Las Vegas holds the No. 1 pick, making this the rare moment when the Raiders job is particularly attractive. More on this below.
Dolphins: After yesterday’s blowout loss to the Patriots, Mike McDaniel is 35-33 with zero playoff wins through four seasons. He survived Miami’s first round of firings (which took general manager Chris Grier), and there’s a case for keeping him.
Elsewhere, remember the Giants and Titans, who must now decide what to do with interim coaches Mike Kafka (2-5) and Mike McCoy (2-9) after the in-season firings of Brian Daboll and Brian Callahan. Also remember you can click here to find the latest updates. Let’s talk playoffs.
2026 Playoff Picture: Seattle remains team to beat
An unstoppable force met an immovable object on Saturday night.
- Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers entered the matchup against Seattle averaging a ridiculous 42.3 points and 455.3 yards per game since their Week 14 bye.
- Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks had been suffocating offenses since a Week 8 bye, leading the league in defensive EPA while allowing just 15.6 points and 271.9 yards per game.
The Seahawks defense won, and it wasn’t close. They stomped the Niners 13-3, allowing 173 yards of offense and just nine first downs. It was the worst offensive performance of Shanahan’s tenure, which spans nearly 150 regular-season games.
My colleague Michael-Shawn Dugar explained the Seahawks’ secret sauce: connectedness. Said Seahawks defensive tackle Leonard Williams:
💬 “This is the closest team I’ve ever been on. In big games, critical moments, doubt leaves the room because we know each other so well.”
Atop the NFC for the first time since 2014, Seattle is 14-3, the best record in franchise history. Its AFC counterpart, Denver, also finished 14-3 after a win against the Chargers’ backups. Those seeds are invaluable: Of the past eight Super Bowl teams, half had first-round byes, and from 2020 onward, only two teams get them per year. Here’s the full postseason picture:
As someone who considered the Seahawks a quiet Super Bowl contender this offseason, I was skeptical about their chances with Sam Darnold at quarterback. Not anymore. After the dominant win in SF, the Seahawks enter the postseason as Super Bowl favorites (full odds are here), with plenty of reason for optimism after Darnold finally held up in a big game.
We’ll dive into each playoff team and matchup over the next few days. As for what else was finalized yesterday:
2026 NFL Draft Order
Thanks to the Giants’ victory over the Cowboys yesterday, Las Vegas clinched the No. 1 pick prior to playing the Chiefs. The Raiders thus got to beat rival Kansas City 14-12 (in what might’ve been Travis Kelce’s last game) without anyone worrying about draft positioning.
Over in New York, the Jets took the second pick, but the Giants’ win dropped them to No. 5 — two weeks after they’d been in line for No. 1. Here’s the full draft order for all 18 non-playoff teams, plus three pressing needs for each:
As my colleague Charlotte Carroll writes in her story on the Giants’ draft plans, “The prospect of wheeling and dealing the pick has gone down significantly with the fall in the draft order.”
New York would’ve been in especially good position to trade down to a QB-needy team, as the top two quarterbacks seem clear — Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore, if he declares. The Raiders and Jets are now positioned to get them. (These two QBs play each other in a college semifinal on Friday.)
Today, Nick Baumgardner shared an updated mock draft that had the Giants selecting Ohio State receiver Carnell Tate at No. 5. In prior mocks, they had traded down before making that same pick.
Extra Points
👀 Playoff madness … is covered in Mike Sando’s Pick Six column, which also explores the Jets becoming the first team to record zero interceptions since INTs became a stat in 1940.
📓 Sam Darnold joins Tom Brady … as the only quarterbacks in league history to record back-to-back 14-win seasons, as Zak Keefer explained in his Week 18 takeaways.
🔮 Uncertain future for J.J. McCarthy … who struggled in what was essentially his rookie season, and can’t take much credit for the Vikings’ 6-4 record in games he started. Minnesota plans to explore quarterback options this offseason.
📊 Historic year for Myles Garrett … who gave Cleveland something to celebrate by setting the single-season sack record with his 23rd during yesterday’s win in Cincinnati. We’ll cover Garrett and his fellow league-leaders in tomorrow’s newsletter.
🎤 Jerry Jones said … the Cowboys can “do some things to maybe make as dramatic a difference as we could have in a long time,” the same type of claim he seems to make each year. Jon Machota explored what could move the needle in Dallas.
▶️ Friday’s most-clicked: The full list of 15 Hall of Fame finalists for the 2026 class.
Before we go, have you ever seen an NFL team in punt formation on first down? The Colts ran a fake punt on fourth down (they converted). Then they lined up for another fake punt on first down before the Texans were flagged for 12 men. You’ve never seen anything like it.
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