Don’t be surprised if … Jayson Tatum returns this season, Kawhi Leonard remains hot

Each week in the NBA is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy basketball managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!

Don’t be surprised if … LA Clippers SF/PF Kawhi Leonard remains a top-10 player all season

Let’s be optimistic, shall we? The version of Leonard we saw last season, ever so briefly over 37 games, averaged 39.4 fantasy points per game, which wasn’t what we were accustomed to with his talent, but it was among the top 50 averages in the sport. It is what Philadelphia 76ers C Joel Embiid averaged in his 19 games, ironically enough. It bested some solid players (Jaren Jackson Jr., Dejounte Murray, Desmond Bane, Pascal Siakam).

For those who paid attention, however, Leonard looked even better in the playoffs against the Denver Nuggets. He still had it. The reason I didn’t invest in fantasy leagues — and this goes for Embiid and others, too — are the missed games. It became difficult to count on Leonard.

Perhaps Leonard, 34, tweaks something this week and misses a month without warning, but few can argue that his play has turned the season around for the Clippers and fantasy managers. Leonard entered Wednesday averaging 59.3 fantasy points over the past 30 days. Only Nuggets C Nikola Jokic, currently out with a knee injury, has been better. Leonard scored 55 points against the Detroit Pistons (that was 108 fantasy points OMG!) and added 44 points (and 75 fantasy points against the Utah Jazz. After playing in the first six games of the season and then missing 10, he hasn’t missed a game since Thanksgiving.

No, I do not believe in jinxes. I do believe in awesome fantasy numbers. In a normal league, would I trade for Leonard as if he is one of the top five or 10 fantasy options this season? No, I would not. His track record precedes him. Leonard has reached 60 games in just one of the past six seasons. However, for those trying to make up ground in the standings, including the suddenly streaking Clippers, this is where you do believe. If someone is offering Leonard on the cheap, or for a future draft pick, act.

Leonard has never averaged his current 28.8 PPG for a full season before. He is rebounding and stealing more than recently. He has missed only six of 154 free throws (96.1%! Take that, Mark Price!).

When people use the term risk versus reward, it can mean many things, even in fantasy. I don’t know if Leonard suits up 40 more times this season, but man, what if he does? Does anyone fit the risk/reward criteria better for the next four months?

Don’t be surprised if … Boston Celtics PF/SF Jayson Tatum makes a triumphant return in March and carries the team to the NBA Finals

This probably will not be the last time I mention Tatum, because he is rostered in only 20.2% of ESPN leagues and even in redraft formats, as the season approaches the halfway mark, there is opportunity. Sure, Tatum could miss the entire season recovering from his Achilles tear, but I don’t see that happening. All the reports are positive. The Celtics, even without a fellow who averaged 26.8 PPG and 48.4 fantasy points last season, are serious title contenders. They can win this thing with Tatum.

For fantasy managers, I could see a scenario in which the Celtics, currently the East’s No. 3 seed, bring back Tatum slowly in limited minutes, much to our collective chagrin. Still, Tatum may average 18.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG and 2.0 3PG in something like 25 MPG in April, and that should be better than several players in your fantasy rotation. Who would bet against Tatum? The East is open. Whether one has an IR spot in their fantasy league or not, don’t wait until the Celtics have a date picked out for Tatum to return before you add him. He’s playing.

Coward, the No. 11 pick in the 2025 NBA draft, isn’t likely to earn much attention for Rookie of the Year honors, as Cooper Flagg, Kon Knueppel and VJ Edgecombe are the clear betting favorites there. Coward has arguably been just as efficient, and he is the one still available in more than 65% of ESPN standard leagues. Total win shares and on a per-minute basis aren’t fantasy stats, but we use them to evaluate just the same, and Coward is right there with the rookie leaders, while not truly breaking out yet.

The Grizzlies sure look like they are or need to transition away from their controversial point guard who misses so many games and, when he does dare suit up, produces ordinary statistics. I haven’t been kind to C/PF Jaren Jackson Jr. this season, but he has performed much better recently (more consistent scoring, plenty more blocks). Coward and SG/PG Cam Spencer have become fantasy relevant to keep the Grizzlies in playoff contention.

I just wonder when Coward becomes their top scorer. Too bold? When Draymond Green recently compared him to a young Kawhi Leonard, I admit I didn’t take the remark too seriously. Then Coward dropped 28 points and 16 rebounds on the 76ers, making good use of a season-best 37 minutes by scoring in myriad ways, inside and out. Nobody could cover this energetic athlete cutting and jumping everywhere, and he is a dogged defender with upside there, too. Kawhi Leonard … hmmm. That would work!

Coward, currently dealing with an ankle injury not expected to cost him significant time, is a natural scorer who isn’t getting enough chances to average 20 PPG, but it is coming. Soon, the Grizzlies will up his minutes and his outside shooting will improve. For now, Coward averages 13.7 PPG in only 26.7 MPG. That’s a strong rate. I won’t be surprised when he averages 18 PPG and 8 RPG regularly, and perhaps next season this is a legitimate star.

Other thoughts

• Indiana Pacers C Jay Huff is testing my fantasy patience. OK, so you couldn’t care less about Huff, who is rostered in 8.1% of ESPN leagues, but I play in deeper formats and roto/categories formats, and Huff entered Wednesday with 80 blocked shots, 12 more than anyone else. That is a big deal. Huff could be a far bigger deal. He is a legit 7-foot-1, and the Pacers have nobody else to handle center duties. How can Huff not average even a modest 12 PPG and 6 RPG to go with the blocks and 3-pointers? On Tuesday, Huff tied a season-high with 20 points against the twin towers of the Cleveland Cavaliers. He hit four 3-pointers. C’mon, man, keep doing this!

• Meanwhile, Oklahoma City Thunder SG Cason Wallace is no less frustrating. The defensive whiz leads the league in total steals, but he just cannot do much else for a fantasy team. Hawks SG/PG Dyson Daniels is second in steals, and more than one steal per game down from last season, when he averaged 3 SPG. Daniels, however, can score and rebound and we love 6 APG. Daniels is so much better when Young isn’t playing. Hint, hint.

• Back to big names: Anyone else notice New York Knicks PG Jalen Brunson ended Monday’s loss to the Pistons with nary an assist? I did! Brunson averaged 7.3 APG last season. He is at 6.3 APG this season, but with little consistency, which is a problem in head-to-head weekly formats. OK, it seems petty to complain about a player averaging 29.2 PPG, but of the 11 players averaging 28 PPG, Brunson averages the least total fantasy points per game. It’s not really a problem, but it matters in roto formats.

• Everyone must be pleased that Sacramento Kings SG/SF Zach LaVine is back from his latest malady, and he scored 20 points in each of his first two games back. Solid. Could we get a bit more for our fantasy teams? LaVine has never been a notable rebounder or assist fellow, but he averaged 4.3 RPG and 4.2 APG last season. Today, he is at 3 RPG and 2.4 APG. Ugh. Nikola Jokic could do this playing with his torn knee. LaVine is what he is, I guess, but it doesn’t seem that hard to produce more than a measly 5.4 rebounds-plus-assists.

• Yes, I fell hard for that one-game Brook Lopez game at Portland on Dec. 26, and I am embarrassed. Lopez, getting minutes because Ivica Zubac (ankle) out, nailed nine 3-pointers that day. He was about as underrated as can be, compared to investment cost, over a three-year span in Milwaukee, as he combined myriad 3-pointers with blocked shots. I thought he would thrive for a few weeks with Zubac out! He didn’t thrive. Lopez hit six 3-pointers in the five games since then. Zubac is back. Carry on with our lives, without Lopez.

• This week’s Philadelphia 76ers thought: What if Joel Embiid, like Leonard, stays healthy, too? Embiid has looked markedly better recently in just about every way; scoring, rebounding, passing, gesticulating. For some reason, the 76ers are risking it all by sending him out there for big minutes, tempting fate. Regardless, Embiid is playing great. The wise fantasy analyst would say it is far past the time to trade him for a more secure, consistent, durable player because the next series of missed games are coming. Would you trade Embiid for Cooper Flagg? Trey Murphy III? Nikola Vucevic? Evan Mobley? Um, don’t you have to?