Josh Allen was slumped in his locker stall. Again.
It was January 2025, and his Bills had just been eliminated by the Chiefs for the fourth time in five years. Maybe next year.
Well, this year, it won’t be the Chiefs. Or Ravens. Or Bengals. For the first postseason of Allen’s career, the Bills are guaranteed to avoid those teams and their typically elite rival quarterbacks. It’s one reason Buffalo is behind only No. 1 seed Denver in the AFC’s Super Bowl odds, with Seattle the favorite on the other side.
But it won’t be easy.
Inside: A game-by-game preview of every wild-card matchup, starting with the AFC.
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Bills (-1) at Jaguars
Sunday, Jan. 11 at 1 p.m. ET on CBS. Odds per BetMGM.
The Bills are missing some key contributors, and Jacksonville has better skill-position talent, a record-setting kicker and above-average defense, along with home-field advantage (Imagine thinking that in August!). But the most important matchup is strength on strength:
- Buffalo wins by running inside. A dominant interior line helped the Bills lead the league with 159.6 rushing yards per game and 30 rushing touchdowns, while James Cook claimed the rushing crown with 1,621 yards.
- Jacksonville wins by stopping the run. The Jags force plenty of takeaways and score in bunches, but its their No. 1 run defense that’s quietly helping them win games; Jacksonville allows the fewest rushing yards per game (85.6) and second-fewest yards per carry (3.9).
Advantage: Buffalo. The Jaguars’ defense ranks 15th in EPA against inside runs, meaning its closest thing to a weakness is exactly where the Bills love to attack. And while Buffalo’s own defense struggles to stop the run, Jacksonville has fielded the league’s second-weakest rushing attack since midseason (based on yards per carry and EPA per rush).
Chargers at Patriots (-3.5)
Sunday, Jan. 11 at 8 p.m. ET on NBC/Peacock
Jim Harbaugh inspires, and Justin Herbert wills the offense to points, but it’s the chess match between Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter and Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels that’ll decide this one.
- New England wins with explosive passes. The Patriots finished No. 1 in EPA per pass on short, medium and deep passes thanks to MVP candidate Drake Maye, who led the league by completing 18.4 percent of his passes for 16-plus yards.
- Los Angeles wins by limiting offense. The Chargers haven’t allowed over 20 points in any of their past six games, thanks in part to a secondary that gives up the fewest explosive passes among playoff teams.
Advantage: Chargers. Los Angeles is arguably the best team New England has faced (the Pats are 1-2 against teams above .500), and the league’s only team among the top five in success rate on third-down offense and defense. My colleague Austin Mock picked the Chargers as his Cinderella team, and I’m leaning toward them winning this one, at least.
Texans (-3) at Steelers
Monday at 8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN
The Texans have won nine straight, thanks to a smothering defense and an offense that rarely turns the ball over, while the Steelers needed a mix of holy water and vintage Aaron Rodgers just to make the postseason.
- Houston wins with its defense. The Texans are undefeated when scoring 20 or more points this season, thanks to a unit allowing the fewest points per game (16.6) prior to Week 18, when they rested starters. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. combined for 27 sacks and allow the Texans to constantly bring pressure despite rarely sending more than four pass rushers.
- Pittsburgh wins with quick passing. The Steelers offense seems built to counteract Houston’s pass rush, as Aaron Rodgers leads all quarterbacks in average time to throw (2.52 seconds). Expect him to lean on the returning DK Metcalf, whose yards per route run jump from a good 1.84 to an elite 2.4 whenever Rodgers gets the ball out quickly (2.3 seconds or less).
Advantage: Texans. Earlier this season, Houston sacked Josh Allen eight times, and its relentless four-man pressure will force the Steelers to rely on yards after the catch. Good luck; only five teams allowed fewer YAC than this imposing Houston secondary.
I’ll pass it to my colleague Ted Nguyen, who kicks off the NFC preview with a matchup that could decide the heavily favored Rams’ fate.
What Ted’s Seeing: Rams at Panthers (-10.5) prep
Saturday, Jan. 10 at 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX
Watch for Rams cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr.
The Panthers (8-9) targeted him whenever they needed a big play in their Week 13 upset over the Rams (12-5), and it worked. Forbes gave up two long touchdowns in man coverage on fourth down, including this one:
According to PFF, Forbes is allowing the eighth-highest yards per reception (15.3) among qualifying corners this season. However, the Rams benefit from the return of nickel Quentin Lake, who missed that prior matchup.
“He does so many things and wears so many hats for this defense,” defensive coordinator Chris Shula said of Lake. “Anytime you lose a great player like that, you definitely feel the absence.”
Lake’s physicality allows the Rams to stay in sub personnel (five or more defensive backs on the field), where they are much more effective at stopping explosive passes and can allocate more help to Forbes.
More on the NFC matchups to watch here. I also explained key AFC matchups here. Back to Jacob for the final two.
Packers (-1.5) at Bears
Saturday, Jan. 10 at 8 p.m. ET on Prime Video
It’s the biggest game in Chicago since January 2011’s NFC Championship Game. They split the season series, but the Bears are again home underdogs to a Packers’ team that’s winless since Micah Parsons’ mid-December injury.
- Green Bay wins by avoiding turnovers. The Bears are the best in the NFL at takeaways both forced (33) and given (11). But if Green Bay limits mistakes, it can exploit Chicago’s otherwise average defense; the Bears are 9-0 when forcing multiple turnovers, but 2-6 otherwise.
- Chicago (11-6) wins by running the ball. Green Bay’s defense has been bludgeoned by running backs since losing Parsons. During the three full games without him, the Packers allowed the most rushing yards in the entire NFL and had the league’s lowest defensive success rate vs. the run.
Advantage: Bears. Sine Chicago’s strengths keep its vulnerable defense off the field, Jordan Love needs to be excellent to stop the Bears from getting their first playoff win since … earlier in January 2011.
49ers at Eagles (-5)
Sunday, January 11 at 4:30 p.m. ET on FOX
Each team’s best offensive player — Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson and 49ers left tackle Trent Williams — is thankfully trending toward playing Sunday. Both are invaluable, as demonstrated by their splits since 2020, which include playoff games:
- Philly wins by creating holes for Saquon Barkley. The 49ers defense is ravaged by injuries, particularly at linebacker, and average against the rush. If Barkley wins on the ground, it’ll unlock one-on-one coverage for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith against a beatable Niners’ secondary.
- SF wins by scoring over 20. The Eagles offense has been unreliable, to put it mildly, averaging just 19 points per game since midseason. Johnson’s return will help, but the Niners would surely outscore Philly in any track meet; the Niners’ offense is averaging 29.5 points per game since midseason, fifth-best in the league.
Advantage: Eagles. Jalen Hurts is fully healthy, as is most of Philly’s starting lineup, and their defense has been among the league’s best since acquiring edge rusher Jaelen Phillips at the trade deadline. It’s hard to bet against the reigning champs, who are at home against a depleted 49ers’ defense. So I won’t.
Extra Points
👔 Dolphins hire GM. Longtime Packers executive Jon-Eric Sullivan joins Miami, with obvious connections to current Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley and former coach Mike McCarthy.
🧰 Got a fix? Our beat reporters explained how the Chiefs, Ravens and Bengals can reopen their Super Bowl windows. It’s unlocked for you to read here.
💼 Jason Witten was hired as a tight end coach at Oklahoma, where his son Cooper — a five-star linebacker prospect — has an offer to play in 2027.
🎙 MVP? OPOY? While listening to their 2025 award show, “The Athletic Football Show” convinced me of Puka Nacua as the Offensive Player of the Year. Click here to listen.
▶️ Yesterday’s most-clicked: Despite the best efforts of my colleagues and I, watching the Colts in punt formation on first down was AGAIN this newsletter’s most-clicked link for a record four straight days.
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