Who benefits from the Trae Young trade? Fantasy hoops player impact and bets to watch

On Wednesday, the Atlanta Hawks traded star PG Trae Young to the Washington Wizards for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert, bringing an end to Young’s run as the team’s franchise player. The Hawks went to the Eastern Conference finals in 2021 with Young as their centerpiece, but have missed the playoffs the past two seasons.

Conversely, the Wizards have not made the playoffs since 2021 and currently sit last in their division. Young, who has missed time with leg injuries this season, joins a rebuilding Wizards squad that has multiple emerging players. It is not yet known how often Young will suit up for the Wizards this season.

We asked fantasy basketball and sports betting insiders Andre Snellings and Eric Moody for their insights on who benefits from new opportunities on the Hawks and Wizards, how will Young’s performance change, and what this means in the betting odds.

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Let’s look at the fantasy hoops ramifications of the blockbuster deal that sent Trae Young to the Wizards in exchange for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert.

Wizards: Willing to build offense around Young?

Young is a very ball-dominant offensive player who traditionally makes a large, positive impact on offenses. But to get that positive impact, Young needs to be featured. But there are some rumblings that the Wizards may bring Young back from injury slowly, so it isn’t clear how much he will play this season. The following analysis assumes that Young does play in a significant manner this season. The Wizards are in a unique position to bring in a high-usage creator because much of the young talent they have been amassing can play off ball… for the most part. Franchise big man Alex Sarr, starting wings Kyshawn George and Bilal Coulibaly and rookie lottery shooting guard Tre Johnson all fit with Young’s skill set. The one exception could be sophomore combo guard Bub Carrington, who has shown flashes of potential this season but could see his potential capped on a Young-led offense.

If the Wizards give Young the keys to the offense to fully utilize his talents, Young could be in for a big fantasy boost. The Hawks brought in a lot of talent this offseason and also had several home-grown players develop, so they had a glut of offense creators. This had led Young to career lows in field goal attempts from both inside and outside the arc, and to his lowest assist numbers (8.9 APG) since his rookie season.

The Wizards had a scarcity of true offensive creators with George leading the team with 5.1 APG, and McCollum was averaging more field goal attempts all over the court than Young this season. Between his second and seventh NBA seasons, Young averaged 26.5 PPG, 2.8 3PG and 10.2 APG. If the Wizards feature him, those are reasonable benchmarks for what he could produce for the remainder of this season. And if so, he could return to borderline top-10 fantasy value.

Among the existing Wizards, Sarr has the biggest scoring upside playing next to Young. Young is excellent at running the pick-and-roll with big men that can finish in the paint and/or pop out and knock down a jumper, and Sarr can do both. Sarr has made tremendous strides as a sophomore at both ends of the court, and the Young pick-and-roll game could be a key to him unlocking more scoring potential. He has already moved into the top-50 in points rankings, and if he and Young find true synergy then Sarr has top-25 upside.

George, Coulibaly and Johnson could also benefit from getting higher percentage looks that Young sets up. Johnson and George, in particular, are strong spot-up shooters from downtown that could benefit from Young’s presence. That added efficiency could help keep their scoring volume steady even if Young cuts into their shot volume. George was borderline top-50 in the fantasy rankings, and he likely holds steady. Coulibaly and Johnson were both fringe rosterable/streamable in fantasy leagues, and both have the upside to flirt with top-100 value if they mesh well with Young.

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Shams: Trae Young is being traded to the Wizards

Shams Charania details the trade sending Trae Young to the Wizards and what’s next for the Hawks.

Hawks: Will McCollum feature or support?

McCollum is the most fantasy relevant of the players the Hawks received in the trade. He had averaged more than 20 PPG as a shooter-scorer for a solid decade leading into this season and was still averaging 18.8 PPG in 30.9 MPG as a starter for the Wizards this season. McCollum will join a three-guard rotation with Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker in Atlanta, and it isn’t clear whether McCollum will start.

Daniels has been a full-time starter, and Alexander-Walker has had a breakout season and become a primary scorer in the starting lineup when Young was hurt. Alexander-Walker still averaged 30.7 MPG when he came off the bench this season, while Young was starting, so regardless of what the new rotation is it seems likely that all three of Daniels, Alexander-Walker and McCollum will get near starter minutes.

While Young needed to be the offensive focal point, McCollum can play as more of a finishing piece. He is more of a combo-guard that has the ability to create off the dribble, but can be featured as more of an off-ball shooter. This would be more of his role in Atlanta, where Jalen Johnson plays point-power-forward and is a walking triple-double. McCollum should be able to get high-quality looks playing off Johnson, particularly with the defensive attention demanded by Alexander-Walker, Kristaps Porzingis and even Onyeka Okongwu.

It might be difficult for McCollum to average 20 PPG for the Hawks, but he still has upper-midteens scoring and two-plus 3-pointer per game expectation in Atlanta. McCollum ranked No. 64 in the most recent fantasy points rankings pre-trade, and his value as a potential sixth man in Atlanta might fall slightly, but remains in the top-75 to top-100 range. — Snellings

Betting impact

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Trae Young appears to say some goodbyes after being traded

With news of Trae Young’s departure to Washington, the longtime Hawks guard appears to say some goodbyes.

NBA odds by DraftKings sportsbook, subject to change.

On the Wizards’ end, they’re finally getting a real offensive engine, as Young has scored or assisted on 48.1 points per game for his career, second-most in league history behind only Luka Doncic (48.9). Washington has been starved for that level of creation and has been the league’s only team without an All-Star over the past four seasons, a reality Young instantly changes by raising both their ceiling and their nightly relevance.

For Atlanta, this is the end of an era. Young leaves as the Hawks’ all-time leader in assists and three-pointers, and as the owner of the highest scoring average in Hawks playoff history (26.4 PPG), highlighted by the 2021 run to the Eastern Conference finals. But the Hawks are also betting they can live with less volatility, as no player has more total turnovers since 2018-19 than Young (2,077).

The risks are clear. Young’s defensive limitations and turnover history might be exposed in Washington, while Atlanta gives up a franchise cornerstone who powered its deepest postseason run in decades. Still, for both teams, clarity might be worth the cost.

From a betting perspective, keep an eye on overs in Wizards games, as Young’s arrival — depending on when he is able to take the court — should boost a Washington offense that ranks 27th in offensive rating. This is a team that will often be playing from behind, given its bottom-tier defensive rating, which should create high-possession, high-scoring environments. Young’s assist and turnover props are also worth monitoring in this new setup. He’ll face the Hawks on Feb. 24 and Feb. 26, providing additional angles for player props.

The Hawks themselves remain an intriguing bet to reach the Eastern Conference play-in tournament at -250. — Moody