If the Milwaukee Brewers are going to trade All-Star right-hander Freddy Peralta, they ideally will want the return to include a young, major-league ready replacement.
Interested teams might resist, knowing they would get only one year of club control with Peralta. But any team that acquires him also would gain the inside track on signing him to an extension — the kind that is beyond the Brewers’ comfort level. Peralta’s agency, ACES, has been open to such deals in the past.
Of the clubs in the mix for Peralta, the New York Mets might be in the best position to part with a prized young arm – and they can do it without offering top prospect Nolan McLean.
Two of the Mets’ other youngsters, Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong, reached the majors last season. Christian Scott, another with major-league experience, is nearing the end of his rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery.
The Atlanta Braves (JR Ritchie), New York Yankees (Carlos Lagrange, Elmer RodrÃguez), Boston Red Sox (Payton Tolle, Connelly Early) and Los Angeles Dodgers (River Ryan, Emmett Sheehan, Gavin Stone) are among the other clubs with the ability to entice the Brewers — again, assuming they are willing to make that type of move.
The Braves, with age and injury questions in their rotation, might be reluctant. Ditto for the Red Sox, who already have parted with young pitching in trades for first baseman Willson Contreras and pitchers Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo.
Peralta’s $8 million salary for 2026 is also affordable for small-market clubs, though it’s unlikely a team such as the Miami Marlins would make a win-now type of trade.
The Brewers, by keeping shortstop Willy Adames through his final year of club control in 2024, have demonstrated they are willing to hold onto a player until he becomes a free agent. If they make Peralta a qualifying offer, they would receive a Competitive Balance Round A pick in the low 30s, and that will factor into their trade calculus.
To get Peralta, a team will need to meet their price.
Blue Jays vs. Lauer
The Toronto Blue Jays have committed $337 million to four free agents: Dylan Cease, Kazuma Okamoto, Tyler Rogers and Cody Ponce. Yet, they appear headed to an arbitration hearing over a $1.35 million difference with left-hander Eric Lauer.
Lauer, 30, performed in a variety of roles over 104 2/3 innings during the regular season, produced an adjusted ERA 34 percent above league average and worked a combined 6 2/3 scoreless innings in the ALCS and World Series. Major League Baseball’s labor relations department, which offers recommendations to clubs in arbitration, might be trying to make a point with his case.
The Athletic compiled a list of 42 players since 2014 who, like Lauer, re-entered the arbitration system after leaving it for whatever reason. All of those players received increases over their last arb salary. The Blue Jays, by submitting a $4.4 million figure for Lauer, offered him a pay cut. Lauer, in his final shot at arbitration before free agency, asked for $5.75 million.
The midpoint is $5.075 million, precisely what Lauer earned in 2023 with the Milwaukee Brewers in his second year of arbitration. The Brewers outrighted him at the end of that season, removing him from their 40-man roster and thus the arbitration system. Lauer elected free agency, then bounced to the Pittsburgh and Houston organizations before heading to Korea. He returned in December 2024, signing a minor-league deal with the Jays.
A three-person arbitration panel will effectively decide whether Lauer deserves a raise from his previous arb salary. The Jays generally are a file-and-trial team, going straight to hearings after the exchange of numbers. They generally make exceptions only for core players, which Lauer is not.
It doesn’t seem logical for the league to take this kind of stand with former major leaguers returning from Asia. Those players in the future can avoid arbitration by negotiating language allowing them to become free agents at the end of their contracts. The Jays, meanwhile, could have avoided this matter entirely by signing Lauer for a small raise above his previous $5.075 million before the non-tender deadline. That way, his deal would not have been considered an arbitration contract.
Lauer helped rescue the Jays’ rotation when Max Scherzer was injured and Bowden Francis struggled last season, producing a 3.05 ERA in 14 starts from June 11 until Aug. 16. He then returned to the bullpen and pitched well in that role.
The Jays settled with their other three arbitration-eligible players — infielder Ernie Clement, outfielder Daulton Varsho and catcher Tyler Heineman — at numbers above the estimates at MLB Trade Rumors. Lauer’s number was right at the estimate. But he seems an odd choice to attempt to break precedent with.
Orioles and Mountcastle: Why they remain together
It was something of a surprise when the Baltimore Orioles tendered a contract to first baseman Ryan Mountcastle. Their subsequent signing of free agent Pete Alonso left Mountcastle without a clear role. So, how is it that the O’s avoided arbitration with Mountcastle by signing him for $6.787 million and adding a $7.5 million club option for 2027?
The option should only enhance Mountcastle’s trade value, and comes with no downside for the club. The better question, perhaps, is why the Orioles signed Mountcastle at all. If they had refused to negotiate and taken him to a hearing, his salary would have been non-guaranteed, regardless of which side won or lost. Just last spring, the San Francisco Giants released J.D. Davis after he beat them in a hearing, and owed him only 30 days’ termination pay.
Orioles president of baseball operations Mike Elias declined to comment on the decision. Mountcastle accepted the same salary he earned last season, but the club option will help prevent his example from being used against other players in future arbitration hearings. His contract will not be comparable to others negotiating one-year deals.
Orioles and Valdez: What might have been
As the Orioles continue their quest to land another starting pitcher, one of their targets is a free-agent left-hander they could have landed at the 2017 deadline, when he was in Double-A.
That’s right, Framber Valdez was part of a four-player package the Orioles agreed to acquire from the Houston Astros for reliever Zack Britton, according to people briefed on the discussions.
The Orioles backed out over medical concerns with another pitcher in the deal, right-hander Rogelio Armenteros. Late owner Peter Angelos was a stickler for clean medicals. Davis and outfielder Jason Martin were the other players slated to go from Houston to Baltimore.
The Orioles’ GM at the time, Dan Duquette, said Friday that he was intrigued by Valdez’s sinker-curveball repertoire, likening it to that of right-hander Derek Lowe. Duquette, while GM of the Red Sox, acquired Lowe and catcher Jason Varitek from the Seattle Mariners for reliever Heathcliff Slocumb at the 1997 deadline. It proved to be one of the best trades of his career.
Framber Valdez ranks fifth on The Athletic’s Top 50 Free Agents list this offseason and is the top overall pitcher. (Dale Zanine-Imagn Images)
As it turned out, the Orioles should have moved Britton. A sub-.500 team at the deadline, they finished 75-87, hardly needing a closer. The following year at the deadline, they were major sellers, parting with Britton, third baseman Manny Machado and pitcher Kevin Gausman, among others.
Britton brought three young pitchers back from the New York Yankees: Dillon Tate, Josh Rogers and Cody Carroll. None of them turned out to be nearly as good as Valdez, a two-time All-Star and 2022 World Series champion.
Elias, the Orioles’ current top executive, was part of the Astros’ front office that tried to trade Valdez to the Orioles. Perhaps Elias will bring the matter full circle and deliver Valdez to Baltimore once and for all.
Marlins on the rise
The Miami Marlins believe they might not be worse off after trading right-hander Edward Cabrera, according to people familiar with their thinking. Club officials view the deal as a potential bonanza, perhaps even starting next season.
Outfielder Owen Caissie, previously the Chicago Cubs’ No. 1 prospect, fits the Marlins’ lineup well and offers massive upside. The Marlins acquired two other young players in the trade. And their starting-pitching depth might allow them to absorb the loss of Cabrera without a significant dropoff.
The Marlins remain open to further dealing from their rotation for the right return, though the chances of Miami trading ace right-hander Sandy Alcántara remain unlikely, league sources said.
Behind Alcántara, there’s Eury Perez, Ryan Weathers, Braxton Garrett and Max Meyer. The next wave includes prospect Robby Snelling and Thomas White. With another trade, the Marlins still might like their group.
Caissie’s presence among the Marlins’ position players raises the bar for any potential lineup additions. Miami likes a lot of its young players, and won’t block them for the sake of a veteran presence.
For that reason, someone like free agent Eugenio Suárez, 34, might not be an ideal fit, though he offers power as a corner infielder. A handful of players are in contention for action at third base and first base, including 25-year-old Graham Pauley, who impressed with his defense and .840 OPS (90 plate appearances) in the second half (.529 OPS in the first half, 94 plate appearances).
Around the horn
• The Detroit Tigers continue to explore the starting-pitching market, talking to free-agent right-handers Lucas Giolito and Chris Bassitt, among others, according to a person briefed on their conversations. The potential for an addition might be less likely if they lose their arbitration case with left-hander Tarik Skubal and end up paying him $32 million instead of $19 million.
If Giolito goes to Detroit, he would reunite with one of his former teammates at Harvard-Westlake High in Los Angeles, right-hander Jack Flaherty. If he signs with the New York Yankees, another team in need of starting pitching, he would reunite with another, lefty Max Fried.
• The Padres also want to add a starter, but are telling the representatives for several free agents that they are not yet ready to move, according to people familiar with those discussions.
The holdup might be the Padres wanting to clear money, perhaps with a trade of right-hander Nick Pivetta, an idea they have entertained this offseason.
• Now that the Arizona Diamondbacks intend to keep second baseman Ketel Marte, their most likely position-player addition is not free-agent third baseman Alex Bregman, but a right-handed hitting first baseman/DH.
A number of free agents fit that description, including Paul Goldschmidt, who spent his first eight seasons in Arizona before getting traded to St. Louis in December 2018. The other free-agent possibilities include Suárez, Rhys Hoskins and Marcell Ozuna. The Orioles’ Mountcastle is among the available trade candidates.
• The Rockies and free-agent right-hander Michael Lorenzen did not discuss the possibility of him hitting before reaching agreement on a one-year, $8 million free-agent contract with a $9 million club option, according to people familiar with the conversations.
The Rockies have kicked around the idea internally, and might talk to Lorenzen about it once his deal is finalized. While Lorenzen, 34, surely is intrigued by the idea of hitting at Coors Field, a return to hitting might not be realistic. His last plate appearance was in 2021.
• Free-agent right-hander Max Kranick is set to begin throwing on Monday. Kranick, 28, is believed to be fully healed and healthy after he had flexor tendon repair surgery last summer. He expects to be available to pitch in games during the second half of the 2026 season.
In 37 innings (all in relief) last season with the Mets, Kranick had a 3.65 ERA.