With the Houston Texans’ 30-6 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night, the NFL’s version of the Elite Eight is set. We now get to look forward to four heavyweight matchups in this weekend’s divisional round, featuring the playoff debuts of the top-seeded Denver Broncos in the AFC and Seattle Seahawks in the NFC.
Historically, it’s rare for the top seeds to meet in the Super Bowl, so we’ll be on upset watch for the next couple of weeks. With that in mind, Jeff Howe breaks down each of the four divisional-round matchups this weekend, while The Athletic’s NFL Playoff Simulator, powered by Austin Mock’s NFL Projection Model, reveals the odds each team has to advance to and win the Super Bowl.
AFC
No. 1 Denver Broncos (14-3) vs. No. 6 Buffalo Bills (12-5, 1-0 playoffs)
Bills quarterback Josh Allen’s presence continues to cast a formidable cloud over the AFC, and his clutch performance in the 27-24 victory against the Jaguars was the latest example of his ability to carry an entire team. Allen finished 28-of-35 passing for 273 yards and a touchdown to go along with two rushing scores in the first road playoff win of his career.
Allen was dominant with his accuracy, while the Jags neutralized Buffalo’s top-ranked rushing attack. And he overcame the defense surrendering the lead twice in the fourth quarter. Once again, the Bills needed Allen to play perfectly, and he delivered.
Meanwhile, the Broncos have won 13 of their last 14 games behind a defense that ranked second in yards allowed and third in points. Their 68 sacks were 11 more than any other team and 20 more than any team that made the playoffs, so they have the most dominant remaining pass rush, and it’s not close.
However, the Broncos only forced 14 turnovers, which was tied for the fourth fewest in the league. It may feel like a tall task for the Broncos offense to keep up with Allen if they can’t tilt the turnover margin to set up shorter fields.
Quarterback Bo Nix likely can’t match Allen in a shootout, but he has made strides in his second season, completing 63.4 percent of his passes for 3,941 yards, 25 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He also ran for 356 yards and five scores. And the Broncos ranked 16th in rushing for the second year in a row, so they’re not exactly carrying Nix with a powerful ground attack.
The Bills dominated the Broncos 31-7 last postseason, but they’re switching venues this time. And considering this will be the Broncos’ first home playoff game in 10 years, the Mile High advantage will be a factor.
No. 2 New England Patriots (14-3, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 4 Houston Texans (12-5, 1-0 playoffs)
Coaches Mike Vrabel and DeMeco Ryans, a pair of ex-linebackers who have taken over their former teams, are meeting for the first time in the postseason.
Vrabel, a three-time Super Bowl champion as a player, guided the Patriots to their first playoff win in seven years with their 16-3 knockout of the Chargers. Ryans has guided the Texans to a playoff victory for the third year in a row, the longest streak in franchise history. But they’ve never advanced to an AFC Championship Game.
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye took a beating in his playoff debut but still finished 17-of-29 passing for 268 yards, one touchdown and one interception along with a team-high 66 rushing yards. He was also sacked five times and fumbled twice, losing one.
Maye will have to eliminate the turnovers, but he was better with ball security during the season. That was just his second lost fumble in nine games, and he threw eight picks, cutting his interception ratio from 3 percent as a rookie to 1.6 percent this season. He hasn’t thrown more than one interception in a game since the fourth start of his rookie season.
The MVP candidate has understandably dominated the attention, but the Patriots defense has improved on a similar track this season. New England ranked fourth in points allowed and eighth in yards after finishing 22nd in each category in 2024.
However, its 35 sacks were tied for the seventh fewest, and its 19 takeaways were the 12th fewest. But the Patriots were far more disruptive against the Chargers, sacking QB Justin Herbert six times and forcing two fumbles (recovering one).
The Texans are the hottest team in the league with 10 straight victories, and that streak included wins against three playoff teams before they eliminated the Steelers on Monday. They’ve been surging on the strength of a defense that allowed the second fewest points in the league and was tied for seventh with 47 sacks and third with 29 takeaways. On Monday, they sacked Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers four times and took the ball away twice.
C.J. Stroud’s performance was less than inspiring Monday, as the young QB looked rattled behind his shaky offensive line, finishing 21-of-32 passing for 250 yards, with one touchdown and one interception to go along with five fumbles (two lost). No matter how good Houston’s defense is, he’ll likely need a better showing next week if the Texans are going to leave Foxboro with a win.
The Texans are 3-1 against the Patriots since 2019, tilting the series in their direction after New England’s early dominance. The Patriots won 10 of their first 11 meetings with the Texans, including a 2-0 mark in the playoffs.
NFC
No. 1 Seattle Seahawks (14-3) vs. No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (12-5, 1-0 playoffs)
The Seahawks will play their first home playoff game in five years, and because of the COVID-19 restrictions, it’ll be their first one in front of their fans since the 2016 postseason. They’re trying to win their first playoff game since Jan. 5, 2020, so it’s been a real dry spell for the NFC’s top seed.
However, the Seahawks believe they’ve built another roster to contend this season and into the future. Coach Mike Macdonald reestablished a dominant defensive culture, as they allowed the fewest points in the league for the first time since their historic run from 2012-15. The Seahawks also ranked third against the run, sixth in takeaways (25) and tied for seventh in sacks (47), so they don’t have a weak spot.
If you’d like to see their suffocating defense in action, look no further than their 13-3 victory against the 49ers in the regular-season finale. Niners quarterback Brock Purdy was held without a touchdown for the only time all season, and running back Christian McCaffrey tallied a season-low 57 yards from scrimmage.
The Seahawks have been strong against the league’s best all season, too. They were an NFL-best 6-2 against teams that qualified for the playoffs, while the Niners went 4-4.
The 49ers rebuilt their confidence Sunday when they eliminated the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles, 23-19, with an impressive fourth-quarter takeover. Purdy powered through two second-half interceptions to lead the rally as the QB and the Niners conquered a demon with that tough win in Philly.
The question is whether the 49ers are capable of playing markedly better than Week 18. They entered that game averaging 35.7 points during their six-game winning streak, but they were severely overmatched by the Seahawks with the No. 1 seed at stake.
That was a crucial win for Seattle’s confidence, too, because the Niners had won seven of their previous eight meetings, including a 2022 postseason showdown.
No. 2 Chicago Bears (11-6, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 5 Los Angeles Rams (12-5, 1-0 playoffs)
Quarterback Caleb Williams has arrived, and his rapid second-year ascension would hit a fever pitch if he can help the Bears take down the Rams, who were viewed as the NFL’s best team for an extended stretch this season.
Williams went 24-of-48 passing for 361 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in the Bears’ 31-27 victory against the Packers, and he made some eye-popping throws in huge moments. The 2024 No. 1 pick has 20 touchdowns against four interceptions over his last 11 games, and he’s tossed two scores in six straight. His education under first-year coach Ben Johnson has paid immediate dividends.
An UNREAL throw from Caleb Williams keeps the Bears’ hopes alive 🔥
Chicago would go on to score a TD on this drive.
🎥 @NFLpic.twitter.com/2HhUhFrN3d
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) January 11, 2026
Of course, MVP candidate Matthew Stafford awaits on the other side. The 37-year-old seemed to struggle with the Carolina Panthers’ defensive looks Saturday during the Rams’ 34-31 victory, and yet he still went 24-of-42 for 304 yards, three touchdowns and an interception to continue his phenomenal year. Stafford led the league with 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns during the regular season.
The Rams are still something of an unknown, as they looked like the NFL’s premier team with a 9-2 record after consecutive victories against the 49ers, Seahawks and Buccaneers. But they were 3-3 down the stretch and struggled to put away the Panthers over the weekend, so it’s fair to wonder whether they’re capable of recapturing that early stride or if they’ll continue to battle their own inconsistencies along with their opponents.
The Rams and Bears have split their two playoff matchups, though their last meeting was 40 years ago when the Bears were on their way to the Super Bowl.