Zucker, Orlov and more power play sleepers to add to your fantasy hockey lineup

Trying to figure out which NHL power plays might have untapped fantasy potential gets tricky once you start factoring in time on ice. The ultimate goal for a power-play unit is to score quickly, so rate stats can be misleading. A unit taking lots of shots per minute might look impressive – or it might just mean they aren’t finishing and need more opportunities. Either way, there’s something to learn if we break the numbers down carefully.

There have been 8,432 different power-play units this season, but most barely see the ice. Over half have played five seconds or less together, and nearly 90 percent have played under a minute. These are just on-the-fly line changes, and tiny sample units can generate a goal or two, but they don’t tell us much. To find units worth analyzing, we need a minimum ice-time cutoff – and that’s where the concept of leaderboard churn comes in.

By looking at the top 25 units ranked by shot attempts per two minutes at increasing thresholds, we can see how stable the leaderboard becomes. Early on, at 15 seconds to a minute, it’s almost musical chairs: a unit might appear at the top one day and vanish the next. But once a unit has logged about eight minutes together, turnover drops dramatically, and the leaderboard starts to stabilize. That’s when the rate stats become meaningful and repeatable – these are the units that consistently generate shots and goals, and the ones worth watching for fantasy purposes.

Using that eight-minute cutoff leaves us with 166 power-play units to consider for the leaderboards.

Consider the following chart of the power-play units with the most ice time this season.

While there is a lot of variance in the amount of success these units have, you can see a pretty solid average of around 3.7 shot attempts for every two minutes they are on the ice together. But you can also see that pushing over that average doesn’t necessarily help with converting goals. While ice time shows opportunity, it doesn’t always reflect efficiency – that’s why we also look at shot attempts per two minutes and other rate metrics to spot true fantasy potential.

Consider the table of leaders for shot attempts per two minutes on the power play, with a minimum of eight minutes of total ice time this season.

There is some noise here, as eight minutes is not a lot of ice time. But the key is to take the knowledge from the ice time leaderboard and look for units that, while they may not have a ton of ice time yet, have the potential to stabilize and keep producing because of their rates.

Take the new Vancouver Canucks unit, for example. Brock Boeser, Jake DeBrusk, Elias Pettersson, Kiefer Sherwood and Tom Willander have come together in recent games once the Canucks stopped using Zeev Buium on the point following the Quinn Hughes trade. This group is firing 5.21 shot attempts per two minutes, which is well over the top units from the ice time leaderboard. They only have 15:45 together so far, but with three goals and tons of chances, you can bet they will stay together. While the shooting and scoring rates might come down, Willander (available in 99.7%) is an option in your fantasy league that could pay dividends for the second half of the season.

Some others to highlight:

Jason Zucker, LW, Buffalo Sabres (available in 83.1% of ESPN leagues): The Sabres have two units on the list with the top shot attempt rates, and Zucker, who has missed 19 games this season, is on both of them. He’s a play-driver on the advantage and has maintained a strong rate of fantasy points per game (FPPG) this season. When healthy, he is a solid start in leagues of 12 teams or deeper.

Luke Hughes, D, New Jersey Devils (available in 38.6%): Defensive miscues aside, the Devils are going to solve the Dougie Hamilton dilemma that has made headlines this week. Assuming they find a new home for their veteran, the path would become clear for Hughes to take the top power play all to himself. The Devils have two units in the top 10 for shot attempts per two minutes (SAP2), so imagine the boost to Hughes’ production when he gets to anchor both of them?

James van Riemsdyk, LW, Detroit Red Wings (available in 98.1%): Coming in hot since taking over a specialist role on the Red Wings top unit, van Riemsdyk has become a must-add with this new role. He has three goals and five helpers across his past seven games, fueled largely by his new home on the advantage.

Dmitry Orlov, D, San Jose Sharks (available in 81.7%): The Sharks have a few units peppered among the top for SAP2 on the advantage, but the key difference among them is that the units with Orlov as the anchor score, while the ones with John Klingberg don’t. It seems the Sharks are recognizing this trend themselves, shifting strongly toward Orlov as the quarterback lately.

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Dmitry Orlov nets goal for Sharks

Dmitry Orlov nets goal for Sharks

Vladislav Gavrikov, D, New York Rangers (available in 88.5%): One of the best units in the league for both scoring and SAP2 rates, the Rangers are without Adam Fox for what will likely be a while. Having Gavrikov on the point certainly brings overall expectations down, since being a power-play quarterback isn’t exactly his forte, but the rest of the unit remains a threat. In theory, this should lift Gavrikov’s potential for fantasy for as long as Fox is out.

Artturi Lehkonen, LW, Colorado Avalanche (available in 28.0%): And the Avalanche are an interesting case on the SAP2 ranking, as they have three units all with about the same shot attempts rate. All of them have Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Martin Necas. This suggests that it doesn’t really matter who else is on the ice with them, from Lehkonen to Valeri Nichushkin, to Brock Nelson, to Victor Olofsson. Lehkonen has been there of late, though the Avs switch this up a lot.

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Goalie notes

Here’s this week’s selection of goaltending snapshots, showing crease shares, fantasy production, and key notes where relevant.

Detroit Red Wings in 47 games (four last week):

• John Gibson (crease share season/week: 57.6%/100.0%, fantasy points season/week: 67.4/28.2, 58.8% available, 2.47 FPP60)

• Cam Talbot (crease share season/week: 42.4%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 21.2/DNP, 88.6% available, 1.06 FPP60)

The ascension of Gibson continues. Despite his excruciatingly slow start to the season, he’s now pushed into the top 10 goaltenders for total fantasy points. In the past month, he has 56.8 fantasy points. The next closest goaltender (Philipp Grubauer?!) has 39.2.

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John Gibson robs Canadiens with save

John Gibson robs Canadiens with save

Edmonton Oilers in 46 games (four last week):

• Calvin Pickard (crease share season/week: 31.3%/24.5%, fantasy points season/week: -12.8/0.6, 97.8% available, -0.89 FPP60)

• Tristan Jarry (crease share season/week: 18.9%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 8.6/DNP, 58.5% available, 3.31 FPP60)

• Connor Ingram (crease share season/week: 15.3%/75.5%, fantasy points season/week: 14.6/13.0, 95.5% available, 2.07 FPP60)

Jarry is back at practice, and there’s talk he could return to action this week. In his absence, Pickard has looked improved and Ingram has been solid, raising the question of whether Edmonton will carry all three goalies. Ultimately, it may not matter: Jarry has workhorse potential and should easily reclaim 60% crease share once he’s back in net.

Montreal Canadiens in 46 games (four last week):

• Jakub Dobes (crease share season/week: 45.1%/25.4%, fantasy points season/week: 33.4/2.0, 75.7% available, 1.59 FPP60)

• Sam Montembeault (crease share season/week: 35.6%/25.4%, fantasy points season/week: -4.8/5.0, 57.8% available, -0.29 FPP60)

• Jacob Fowler (crease share season/week: 19.3%/49.3%, fantasy points season/week: 20.2/5.6, 91.5% available, 2.26 FPP60)

Fowler is carving out a bigger role for the Canadiens. He’s recently logged a larger crease share than Dobes or Montembeault and is holding his own. If Montreal gets pulled into a tight playoff race, his workload could rise even further. Assuming he stays up and remains the team’s top option, Fowler has sneaky late-season upside. It just might be a slow burn to get there given the logjam at the moment.

New York Rangers in 47 games (four last week):

• Igor Shesterkin (crease share season/week: 71.0%/5.5%, fantasy points season/week: 83.6/1.8, 3.3% available, 2.5 FPP60)

• Jonathan Quick (crease share season/week: 28.0%/82.5%, fantasy points season/week: 8.4/-17.2, 92.4% available, 0.64 FPP60)

• Spencer Martin (crease share season/week: 1.0%/12.0%, fantasy points season/week: -6.0/-6.0, 100.0% available, -12.6 FPP60)

The very idea that Quick was a decent bet while Shesterkin was sidelined is preposterous. Who would suggest such a thing? (Don’t check last week’s column.) Here’s hoping it didn’t come to that… what a mess. Shesterkin is the Rangers’ backbone for wins, and the backups have shown why he’s irreplaceable.

Ottawa Senators in 44 games (four last week):

• Linus Ullmark (crease share season/week: 63.3%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 20.8/DNP, 64.8% available, 0.75 FPP60)

• Leevi Merilainen (crease share season/week: 34.7%/77.0%, fantasy points season/week: -13.8/-12.8, 99.0% available, -0.91 FPP60)

• Hunter Shepard (crease share season/week: 1.4%/15.5%, fantasy points season/week: -2.0/-2.0, 100.0% available, -3.35 FPP60)

• Mads Sogaard (crease share season/week: 0.7%/7.5%, fantasy points season/week: -7.8/-7.8, 100.0% available, -26.87 FPP60)

• James Reimer (crease share season/week: DNP/DNP, fantasy points season/week: DNP/DNP, 99.8% available)

If you were hoping to patch your fantasy crease with Reimer, think again. He gave up six goals in his first AHL game of the season. That said, there are two quirks worth noting: 1) Over the past three seasons, Reimer ranks seventh in save percentage on the power play — the Senators’ biggest weakness this season. 2) Ullmark is actually fifth in that same category.

Toronto Maple Leafs in 45 games (four last week):

• Joseph Woll (crease share season/week: 37.4%/74.5%, fantasy points season/week: 62.4/25.2, 58.7% available, 3.69 FPP60)

• Dennis Hildeby (crease share season/week: 29.8%/25.5%, fantasy points season/week: 28.0/6.4, 97.3% available, 2.08 FPP60)

• Anthony Stolarz (crease share season/week: 25.8%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 5.4/DNP, 53.5% available, 0.46 FPP60)

• Cayden Primeau (crease share season/week: 6.7%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -4.6/DNP, 99.9% available, -1.52 FPP60)

• Artur Akhtyamov (crease share season/week: 0.4%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 1.0/DNP, 100.0% available, 5.7 FPP60)

Shutting out the Canucks is one thing but Woll didn’t stop there, he also blanked the defending Stanley Cup champs Florida Panthers and the powerhouse Colorado Avalanche. That’s the kind of turnaround that’s worth getting excited about. Woll and the Leafs have climbed out of their slump, and he’s showing the upside to justify roster-lock status in fantasy leagues.

Power-play notes

Uvis Balinskis, D, Florida Panthers (available 99.8%): The Panthers have leaned on Balinskis instead of Aaron Ekblad as the power-play quarterback lately. With Seth Jones not back yet, there’s upside here.

Corey Perry, RW, Los Angeles Kings (available 94.0%): Perry cooled off after a hot start, but with Anze Kopitar out, he’s back on the advantage. Two power-play points this past week show he can still contribute.

Matty Beniers, C, Seattle Kraken (available 77.5%): Beniers is trending upward, with points in five straight games, seven in the past seven, three on the power play. He’s becoming a fantasy weapon on the man advantage.

Matias Maccelli, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs (available 92.6%): Even with a healthy core, it’s Maccelli running out on the top power-play unit, not John Tavares. Production hasn’t exploded yet, but the Leafs’ recent big wins suggest this unit is turning the corner.