The New York Jets’ most painful loss of the 2025 season didn’t come on a Sunday. It came on a Wednesday afternoon, when Dante Moore announced he was returning to Oregon — erasing New York’s cleanest path to a franchise quarterback.
Ultimately, the Jets were done in by their strength of schedule. Because like the Raiders and Cardinals, they finished the 2025 season at 3-14. But Las Vegas played the weaker slate and that, it turns out, is the first tiebreaker after overall record. The Raiders get the first pick, the Jets get the second.
If New York had the No. 1 overall pick, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza would have been the no-brainer selection. Instead, it looks like Mendoza will be headed to Vegas, and the Jets find themselves the familiar position of not having a quarterback to save them from all the losing that has plagued this franchise; the team last had a winning record in 2015 and they haven’t made the playoffs since 2010, when Rex Ryan, Mark Sanchez, a power run game and an elite defense dragged them to back-to-back AFC Championship games.
Since 2016, New York has never won more than seven games. To understand the scale of the dysfunction, consider this: 10 different quarterbacks have started at least seven games during that stretch.
The “saviors” who didn’t quite work out: Sam Darnold (38 starts) and Zach Wilson (33 starts) were the high-draft-pick “franchise” cornerstones who crumbled under the weight of the instability.
The “grizzled vets” looking for redemption: Aaron Rodgers (18 starts) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (27 starts) brought veteran hope that evaporated into injury and regression. Even the Justin Fields (nine starts) era felt like a desperate attempt to catch lightning in a bottle. It was never particularly close to being realized.
The “everybody loves the backups until they have to play” brigade: A dizzying array of bridge-starters and emergency backups, including Josh McCown (16), Joe Flacco (9), Brady Cook (8), Mike White (7), and Bryce Petty (7).
Now that Moore is headed back to Eugene, the Jets are staring down one of the bleakest quarterback landscapes this franchise has faced since well, they signed Justin Fields to a two-year deal and, before that, pinned their hopes on Aaron Rodgers and, before that, drafted Zach Wilson with the No. 2 overall pick.
The organization is familiar with lackluster quarterback play, but it doesn’t lessen the blow of losing out on Moore.
For what it’s worth, I think Moore’s decision was less about the Jets and more about wanting to run it back with his Oregon teammates. Moore has also started just 20 games in college, and he’s only 20 years old. He will get better — possibly a lot better — the more he plays. Those improvements feel much more likely in college than in the Big Apple pressure cooker looking for its next savior.
Which QB could the Jets get via free agency or trade?
The good news is hard to come by, so let’s start with this: the team has 12 draft picks, including two first-rounders (No. 2, No. 16), two second-rounders, and eight Day 3 picks. They also have three 2027 first-rounders, so I suppose we can go ahead and fire up the “Tank for Arch” talking points. (I’m joking. Mostly.)
The other good news: New York currently ranks No. 4 in available salary-cap space with $89.7 million, according to Spotrac.
Now for the hard truths. If the Jets again turn to free agency to find a starting quarterback, here are some of the available names: Daniel Jones (though he’s likely to re-sign with the Colts), Marcus Mariota, Kenny Pickett, Jimmy Garoppolo, Mitchell Trubisky and Malik Willis.
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Willis is the most intriguing choice on this list, but he’s started just six games in four seasons. He was impressive in a late-season start for the Packers, but he also left the game with an injury. Moreover, are his 35 attempts in 2025 enough of a sample size to give him a Justin Fields-type $20 million-a-year deal? Because I think you and I already know the answer to that question.
Put another way: none of these QBs change your trajectory. At best, they buy you time. At worst, they buy you another top-five pick. And the Jets have been living in that space for a decade.
Another option would be to package some of those draft picks to trade for a QB currently under contract elsewhere. Kyler Murray has probably played his last game for the Cardinals, and that might be the case for Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins, too. Both players have warts, and it’s not clear that a change of scenery will change the on-field production, especially in the case of Tagovailoa, who has been historically bad in cold weather.
These are the kinds of moves desperate teams make, which is what the Jets are trying to get away from.
Other possibilities include cheaper options, but who also haven’t been consistent starters in recent years for various reasons: Anthony Richardson, Jameis Winston and Mac Jones are the usual suspects who come up in these conversations. But then there is Davis Mills, Tyson Bagent and Spencer Rattler — young players who have shined in limited duty, all still on their rookie deals who won’t cost you what Willis will command on the open market.
Mills, Bagent or Rattler may not be long-term answers, but they could be above-replacement-level bridge QB options to whoever the Jets targets in the 2027 draft with all that draft capital.
Should the Jets wait on 2027 for their arm of the future?
I know we say it every single year, but the quarterback class 12 months from now does look stacked: Arch Manning, Dante Moore, Jayden Maiava, Brendan Sorsby, LaNorris Sellers, Darian Mensah and Josh Hoover will all be names to know.
History tells us that maybe 2-3 of them actually end up as first-round picks, but in 2024 we saw six quarterbacks go in the first 12 picks, and of those, four have been really good early in their NFL careers: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Bo Nix. The point: things could get worse (somehow) for the Jets before they get better … but they are well positioned with draft picks and cap space to turn things around, it just won’t be a one-year deal.
For all the resources that go into scouting these quarterbacks, there’s also a good amount of luck involved. Back in 2023, the Texans reportedly had Bryce Young as their QB1 but had to “settle” for CJ Stroud with the No. 2 pick. In 2024, the Commanders took Jayden Daniels second overall and the Patriots snatched up Drake Maye a pick later; Houston and Washington were able to turn things around in the very first year with rookie quarterbacks, and New England is one of the best teams in the NFL in Year 2 with Maye.
These are also three examples of “fit matters,” and a big part of that is having the infrastructure in place to support a young quarterback. That means getting the coach and the general manager right, as well as a capable, competitive roster.
At the other end of the spectrum, things haven’t yet come together for the Falcons and Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta hasn’t had a winning season since 2017), and the Vikings and JJ McCarthy remain a work in progress.
If Jets want to take a QB swing in 2026, who are the options?
This all brings us to Ty Simpson, the Alabama quarterback who has declared for the draft after a single season as Alabama’s starter. Two months ago, he was in the race for QB1. But he struggled down the stretch and he’s now considered a bottom-half-of-the-first-round option, at least for the moment.
The top concern with Simpson may be that he’s only started 15 games in his career. That’s an absurdly low number for a first-round pick.
Since 2010, 51 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round. Of those, only Mitch Trubisky, Dwayne Haskins, Anthony Richardson and Cam Newton made fewer than 15 career Division I starts. And Newton, who won the Heisman Trophy and led Auburn to the national title in his only season with the Tigers, had started 12 games the season before at Blinn Community College.
Simpson, however, is different from Trubisky, Haskins and Richardson in that he’s already a high-level processor, both before and after the snap. He’s also one of the most accurate passers on short and intermediate attempts, throwing with timing, touch and anticipation.
Where he struggled was on deep balls, completing just 13.3% of his throws of more than 30 yards downfield. By comparison, over that same span, Mendoza was completing 53.3% and Moore was completing 46.7%. But Simpson was also battling an injury that affected his ability to push the ball down the field. And if NFL teams — and, in particular, the Jets — are comfortable with Simpson’s deep ball during the pre-draft process, that will undoubtedly boost his draft stock.
I don’t think the Jets would use the No. 2 pick on him (if they keep it, I have them going defense), but I wouldn’t be surprised if they took him at No. 16 with the pick they acquired from the Colts as part of the Sauce Gardner trade. Then the task becomes building around your franchise QB to give him the best chance for success.
But if the Jets decide that a mid-first-rounder is too rich for Simpson, what are some other options in a decidedly weak class?
Only one other name seems likely: Miami’s Carson Beck.
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Remember, 18 months ago, he was the consensus QB1 heading into the 2024 season at Georgia. Beck had a forgettable year, transferred to Miami and has helped lead the Hurricanes to the national title game. He’s the walking embodiment of “game manager,” and I mean that as a compliment — not a concession; he can make every throw, he’s a good athlete who can win with his legs when he needs to, and he’s made some big throws with the game on the line this season, all while leaning on a solid run game and a fantastic defense.
In the right system, Beck can have early success in the NFL. He likely won’t be a first-round pick, but it’s conceivable the Jets could target him as early as Round 2.
There is a path forward. The Jets have picks. They have cap space. They have flexibility.
What they don’t have — and haven’t had in 15 years — is margin for error. If they get the quarterback evaluation wrong again, none of the other stuff will matter. If they get it right, everything changes. That’s the razor’s edge they’re walking, and it’s somehow the thinnest it’s been in a long time.