On to the Divisional Round!
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics and stacks to consider for tournaments.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For the Divisional Round, I’ve sorted the remaining eight team implied totals while focusing on seconds per play and pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Expected Points Added per play (EPA) ranks.
For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download the Divisional Round Pace of Play CSV.
This line has flipped a few times with the Broncos now favored by 1.5 points. The Broncos quietly have not won a playoff game since their Super Bowl 50 victory over the Panthers in 2015. Both teams have conflicting play styles on a number of levels with Buffalo ranking dead last in seconds per play and 28th in PROE on the season. Denver, on the other hand, is 6th in seconds per play and over the final six weeks of the regular season, Bo Nix and the boys were #1 in PROE surpassing even the Cardinals. They ranked 5th in offensive plays per game (64.6) but their effectiveness is the biggest question ranking 15th in EPA per play on the season. This game does not have weather concerns but the elite defenses do lend itself towards a game where scoring is at a premium.
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