Buffalo Bills v Denver Broncos (Saturday, 4.30pm ET/9.30pm GMT)
What the Bills need to do to win: Keep winning short-yardage situations. The tush push on fourth down that propelled Josh Allen 10 yards and helped secure Buffalo’s win over Jacksonville last weekend epitomised how the Bills dominated the game’s crucial moments. The Bills converted four of their five third downs with four yards or to go last Sunday, and they finished fifth in third-down rate in the regular season in the same situations. Denver were eighth this season in third-and-short defensive efficiency (50.6%). Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady will have to find ways to create leverage for Allen and the Bills in those vital moments to keep the scoreboard moving.
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Related: Brilliant, battered and unkillable: Josh Allen lurches towards the Super Bowl
What the Broncos need to do to win: Copy the Jaguars (except the losing part). If James Cook, this season’s best running back, had been allowed to take off last Sunday, Jacksonville wouldn’t have kept the game so close. Cook’s meagre 46 yards on 15 carries meant the Jags almost pulled off the victory. Buffalo may struggle to establish the ground game even more against the Broncos: they lost their two best run-blocking receivers toACL tears against the Jags, Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers. Not that the Broncos’ rock-solid front needs too much help: they gave away the second-fewest rushing yards per game this season (91). If Allen is forced to throw, Sean Payton’s defense can feast. They have the most sacks and the highest rate of QB takedowns (68 at 9.7%) and allow the second-lowest pass completion rate (57.8%). Former Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib, who won a Super Bowl with Denver, is confident: “They sending Superman home,” he said this week.
Key player: Nik Bonitto, edge, Broncos. Bonitto has cemented his status as an elite pass rusher with two brilliant seasons in Denver, earning 13.5 sacks in 2024 and 14 in 2025. He has the power to hustle, harass and help show Allen the door.
Prediction: Bills over Broncos.
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San Francisco 49ers v Seattle Seahawks (Saturday 8pm ET/Sunday 1am GMT)
What the 49ers need to do to win: Show no fear. San Francisco rolled into Philadelphia with a litany of injuries and proved that this team are so much more than the sum of their parts. You no longer feel that a key figure such as George Kittle landing on injured reserve with a torn achilles will slow them down. Adversity just keeps knitting them tighter together, so much so that, against the Eagles, journeyman receiver Demarcus Robinson produced his first 100+ receiving yard-game since November 2022. A large part of the 49ers’ fight comes from the ultimate underdog quarterback, Brock Purdy. His never-say-die attitude was crucial as he shook off two interceptions and backed his deep ball over a fierce Eagles secondary. If they bring the same fearless attitude to Seattle they can handle Sam Darnold, who says he will play despite being listed as questionable with an oblique injury.
What the Seahawks need to do to win: With Trent Williams back in at left tackle for the 49ers, the Seahawks will have a fight on their hands after a fairly straightforward 13-3 win over San Francisco in Week 18 of the regular season. A clear path to victory though lies behind punishing the 49ers’ weak run defense. In the Week 18 win, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet’s combined 171 yards rushing yards were essential to keeping the Seahawks’ offense on the field as they chewed up the clock. The pressure told on Purdy, who had limited time to score while facing Seattle’s formidable defense.
Key player: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Seahawks. Witherspoon does everything brilliantly, though you may not always know it as quarterbacks often avoid throwing in his direction. Behind Witherspoon, the Legion of Boom 2.0 conceded the fewest points per game in the regular season (17.2).
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Prediction: Seahawks over 49ers (all bets are off if Darnold doesn’t play though).
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Houston Texans v New England Patriots (Sunday 3pm ET/8pm GMT)
What the Texans need to do to win: The Texans will expect their defense to make the Patriots suffer. Their offense is less of an asset and lost its best receiver, Nico Collins, to a concussion against Pittsburgh on Monday. Surprisingly, veteran receiver Christian Kirk stepped to lead the Texans to victory after doing next to nothing all season. Kirk made eight grabs for 144 yards and a touchdown and rapidly became Houston’s lone star on offense. In a perfect world, Collins makes it through concussion protocol – although that looks unlikely – if not Kirk needs to continue to do the heavy lifting.
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What the Patriots need to do to win: Attack Houston’s offensive line. The Patriots knew they had a huge advantage over the Chargers’ wafer-thin pass protection, and they subjected Justin Herbert to six sacks, 16 pressures and 11 hits. The Patriots need to blitz CJ Stroud as much as possible to force the quarterback into mistakes. The Texans’ offensive line had the 22nd-ranked pass block grade from Pro Football Focus this season. After dominating the Chargers, defensive end Milton Williams needs to be relied on once more to make sure the Patriots punch their ticket to the AFC championship game.
Key player: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots. Stevenson may not own the top spot in New England’s backfield for much longer but he showed how vital his versatility as a runner and receiver is in the win over the Chargers. He had 75 yards on three receptions while accounting for 30% of New England’s total offensive output. He is a workhorse whose all-round abilities will be crucial in trying to outfox Houston’s brutal defense.
Prediction: Patriots over Texans.
Los Angeles Rams v Chicago Bears (Sunday 6.30pm ET/11.30pm GMT)
What the Rams need to do to win: The Bears love a comeback, so Sean McVay needs to use every play he has secreted away while leaning on his vast array of offensive weapons. Wringing every last drop of production from Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua is the first step to blowing the Bears out of the water. Stafford targeted Nacua 18 times against the Panthers last weekend, so he should at least be aiming for more than 20 on Sunday. When the Panthers didn’t show Nacua special attention he pulled off a string of chunk plays. He was also deployed as a runner, and bulldozed through three defenders for a touchdown. The Bears will always believe they can dig out a victory so the Rams should give them no hope whatsoever by spamming Nacua’s involvement until Chicago break.
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What the Bears need to do to win: Ben Johnson needs to be prepared for the Rams’ pass rush. Los Angeles have a key member of their secondary back: Quentin Lake, who freezes quarterbacks into holding the ball so that McVay’s heavy hitters, Jared Verse, Byron Young and Kobie Turner, can make a decisive sack. Johnson needs to scheme up the offense so they don’t get that chance. He should spotlight the out-of-structure playmaking of Caleb Williams – whose sack rate has dropped from 10.8% as a rookie to 4% this season – to stay one step ahead while using large doses of play action to draw the sting from blitzes. Williams needs to stay on his feet to get the ball out to his receivers who excel in yards after the catch. Rookie tight end Colston Loveland could be a huge headache for the Rams if he gets the targets.
Key player: Montez Sweat, DE, Bears. The defensive lineman is surging at just the right time for Chicago. His three hits on Jordan Love earned him the game ball in the win over the Packers. The Bears need all of that and a few sacks to mitigate the danger of Stafford’s incredible array of receiving weapons.
Prediction: Bears over Rams.