Welcome to the throwback year. The AFC Championship Game features two teams that were dominant seven and 10 years ago. The 2016 trend is alive and well in the NFL.
After clinching a win in Sunday’s divisional round, the New England Patriots opened as 4.5-point favorites on the road against the Denver Broncos, and the line quickly shifted to 5.5 on BetMGM.
Though the Broncos are at home, the spread of over a field goal indicates oddsmakers don’t feel good about Denver’s chances without starting quarterback Bo Nix, who was injured during one of the final plays of the divisional-round win against the Buffalo Bills. But the odds of less than a touchdown also imply that oddsmakers are confident the Broncos will put up a good fight.
The teams have yet to meet this season. Neither has been to the AFC Championship Game in the past six seasons. The Patriots were last there in January 2019, when they beat the Kansas City Chiefs on their way to winning the Super Bowl with Tom Brady. The Broncos were last there in January 2016 … when they beat the Patriots on their way to a Super Bowl win with Peyton Manning.
Throwback indeed.
Broncos +5.5
The good news for the underdog Broncos? They play at home and are 8-1 with that Mile High advantage. The bad news? As mentioned, no Nix. It feels like a Greek theater-level twist of fate: Nix fractured a bone in his ankle on the fourth-to-last play of overtime.
As 1.5-point favorites over the Bills in the divisional-round game Saturday, the Broncos had a tough road to victory, even with home-field advantage, and needed overtime to clinch a game in which Josh Allen lost two fumbles and threw two interceptions. Denver’s defense is what often gets most of the shine, because it really is exceptional, but Nix reminded us in the come-from-behind win that he, too, can shine.
The Broncos are vowing to “rise up” and win the conference championship without Nix and with Jarrett Stidham under center. Stidham has appeared in 20 games with four starts over his seven NFL seasons but has never appeared in a postseason game. He competed with Nix for the starting job in 2024, and Nix ultimately won the spot. Stidham played in one game this season, when he entered for the final snap versus the Dallas Cowboys in October (the Broncos were ahead by 20). In his career, Stidham has completed 117 of 197 passes (59.4 percent) for 1,422 yards with eight touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Patriots -5.5
The Patriots are favored by just under a touchdown and with -275 moneyline odds, which implies about a 73 percent likelihood that they’ll win. New England forced five Houston Texans turnovers in a messy, snowy game Sunday, overcoming three turnovers of its own to advance. Except for one blip when the Texans pulled ahead in the second quarter, the Patriots had control of the game despite the sloppy, turnover-laden play.
Drake Maye had a mixed night, going 16-of-27 for 179 passing yards, three passing touchdowns, one interception and two lost fumbles.
But it was New England’s defense that again made perhaps the biggest impact, especially considering it was being compared to Houston’s celebrated defensive unit. The Pats sacked C.J. Stroud three times, forcing five turnovers and getting a defensive touchdown on a second-quarter pick six.
It’s tough to imagine a backup QB against that group.
The AFC Championship Game is Sunday, Jan. 25, at 3 p.m. ET.