Rams vs. Seahawks: These X factors in AFC Championship could determine who advances to Super Bowl

This season’s NFC Championship game features the most exciting division rivalry grudge match in recent memory with the fifth-seeded Los Angeles Rams traveling to face the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. 

With the Rams prevailing 21-19 at home in Week 11 and the Seahawks surviving 38-37 in overtime at home in Week 16, Sunday’s NFC Championship game will be the first interdivisional playoff matchup in NFL history where both regular season meetings were decided by two or fewer points, according to CBS Sports Research. Los Angeles outscored Seattle by one point (58-57) and outgained them by a single yard (830-829) in the 2025 regular season. These two teams have basically played to a draw this season. This game is also a matchup of the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense, the Seahawks unit that allowed an NFL-best 17.2 points per game, versus the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offense, the Rams’ attack that averaged an NFL-best 30.5 points per game. 

So what or who will be the key to tilting the third and final matchup of the season between these two NFC heavyweights? Obviously 2025 first team All-Pro Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and 2025 first team All-Pro Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua will play crucial roles as will the Seahawks’ three 2025 second team All-Pro defenders: defensive tackle Leonard Williams, linebacker Ernest Jones and cornerback Devon Witherspoon. 

However, let’s take a look at X-factors for each team beyond their respective top-ranked NFL units that will possess a critical impact in deciding which NFC West powerhouse will represent the NFC in Super Bowl LX. 

Rams — Defensive front

The Los Angeles Rams have one of the best pass rushes in football: their 41.7% quarterback pressure rate is the fourth-best in the NFL in 2025, and their 47 sacks are tied for the seventh-best in the league this season. 

The unit had three players with at least seven sacks in 2025 between edge rusher Byron Young (12.0, tied for the eighth-most in the league), edge rusher Jared Verse (7.5, tied for 29th in the league) and edge rusher Kobie Turner (7.0 tied for the 35th-most in the league). Only the AFC’s top-seeded Denver Broncos (four players) had more such players this season. That’s why the Rams defensive front is difficult to game plan against because offenses can’t slide their protection to a single player. 

Current Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold has found that out the hard way in the playoffs. Last year with the Minnesota Vikings, he absorbed an NFL playoff record nine sacks in a 27-9 wild card round defeat that served as his postseason debut. Darnold also struggled with ball security in both regular season matchups with the Rams as the Seahawks quarterback in 2025. He threw for a career-high four interceptions in a 21-19 road defeat against Los Angeles in Week 11, and he was pressured on a season-high 46.2% of his dropbacks while throwing two interceptions and being sacked a season-high four times in a 38-37 overtime home win against the Rams in Week 16. Darnold also threw for 270 yards and two touchdowns that day. 

Across Darnold’s last three games against defensive coordinator Chris Shula and his Rams defense, he committed at least one turnover — on a sack or a strip-sack fumble — when pressured by this Los Angeles Rams defensive front. 

That’s why Los Angeles’ defensive front is the Rams’ X-factor this Sunday in Seattle with a trip to a Super Bowl LX on the line. Being able to generate consistent pressure and create more Darnold turnovers will be a massive key in a Rams victory should they emerge victorious. Darnold is also dealing with an oblique issue that clearly hampered his mobility in the Seahawks’ divisional round win over the San Francisco 49ers, so the Rams getting home against Seattle’s offensive line once again could have an even more outsized impact in the third and final matchup of the season between these NFC West rivals. 

* Includes nine sacks in 2024 wild card round loss with Vikings, tied for the most in a playoff game in NFL history

Seahawks — RB Kenneth Walker III and the offensive line

Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold led the 2025 regular season with 20 turnovers, and he is clearly being impacted by an oblique injury right now after watching him try to move around in the pocket in the NFC divisional round win against the San Francisco 49ers. 

That’s why running back Kenneth Walker III’s and the Seahawks offensive line’s collective ability to get the run game going to take some literal and metaphorical pressure off of Darnold will be one of the biggest keys to a Seattle victory on Sunday.

Defense (three takeaways, an interception and two fumble recoveries) and special teams (Rashid Shaheed’s 95-yard game-opening kickoff return touchdown) played a huge role in the Seahawks operating in cruise control in their 41-6 divisional round win over the 49ers, but so did Walker and the offensive line. He exploded for 145 yards from scrimmage (119 rushing on 19 carries for a 6.1 yards per carry average and 29 receiving) and three rushing touchdowns in a winning effort. That effort put Walker in a club with 2005 NFL MVP running back Shaun Alexander as the only players in Seattle Seahawks history with at least three rushing touchdowns in a playoff game.

Darnold will likely need another repeat performance from Walker, especially with fellow Seattle running back Zach Charbonnet ruled out for the season with what appears to be a torn ACL. The Seahawks’ ability to get Walker in a strong rhythm will certainly make the difference in their quarterback committing two or fewer turnovers or more than two turnovers against the Rams. In the Week 16 home win in which Darnold had just two interceptions, Walker registered 100 yards rushing on the dot on 11 carries for an eye-popping 9.1 yards per carry and a rushing touchdown, which came from 55 yards out. In Darnold’s four-interception meltdown in Seattle’s 21-19 Week 11 road loss against the Rams, Walker had under 70 yards rushing, 67, and a touchdown, from a yard out, on 16 carries for a 4.2 yards per carry average. Walker, who did so twice, and Atlanta Falcons 2025 first team All-Pro Bijan Robinson are the only running backs with 100-plus scrimmage yards and at least one rushing touchdown against the Rams this season. 

How Walker performs on Sunday will have an outsized impact on Darnold’s ability to hold on to the football.