The end of the football season is upon us. Zac Jackson still has a chance to have a winning campaign. Jon Greenberg … not so much. But they’ll keep firing off losers and occasional winners until the Super Bowl.
JON GREENBERG (1-4 last week, 42-61-1 overall): I’m freezing, tired and I can feel a cold coming on. But at least I’m not covering a coaching search. Another tough week for me. If I go 2-0 this Sunday, I’m going to be talking to the camera and making prayer hands like Fernando Mendoza. Certainly, I need to make some money to cover the Indiana gear I bought for my wife and kids.
How cold is it in Cleveland? I’m writing this on Friday, and I haven’t left my house yet. I’m expecting to see a Wampa on my driveway.
ZAC JACKSON (1-3, 45-48-1): One-and-three to fall back into the ranks of losers.
It’s -23 degrees, we’re getting 17 inches of snow, I’m covering a coaching search that’s about to enter its fourth week … yep, all checks out here. Very normal stuff.
I like the Broncos +4. I feel obligated to take more than a field goal.
Per Pro Football Reference, home playoff underdogs of four or more points are 10-0 vs. the spread over the last 50 years.
The Patriots aren’t playing against history, obviously, but I do think the Broncos’ defense can keep it close. And Stidham will be rusty, obviously, but he can’t be worse than C.J. Stroud was last week.
Nice pick by me, by the way.
GREENBERG: I was just about to take a stockpile of cash to the sportsbook to throw it on New England going against Jarrett Stidham. Your research is making me reconsider. My season record is also making me second-guess my razor-sharp intuition.
I’ll roll with Denver +4 as long as you don’t call it your “play of the year.” I think you’re about 1-20 on those picks. A lot of people seem to be taking your advice as the line has gone down a half-point recently. Hopefully, it goes up again.
I will also take the Seahawks -2.5 at home. I wasn’t super impressed with the Rams last week at Soldier Field, and it feels like this is Seattle’s year.
Do you have any prop bets for the people?
JACKSON: You never get good numbers on these in big games with name-brand players, but Kenneth Walker III anytime touchdown -150 feels like a winner to me. He’s obviously going to play most of the snaps, and he ran wild over the Rams in Week 16. Seattle’s path to winning feels like it includes letting the defense and the run game do most of the heavy lifting, and I just think in big moments the Seahawks will trust their running back more than their quarterback.
I don’t play crazy prop ladders very often (or very well), and I don’t usually dive into correlated parlays on player props. But I see Walker getting ample opportunity to really post a big game here.
Same for Puka Nacua. Only one stage is bigger than this one, and Nacua just produces. He’ll catch screen passes. He’ll help in the run game. He’ll get upward of 15 targets if that’s what it takes, and I do think Seattle wins the game. That means the Rams in scramble mode, and that means even more opportunity for Nacua. He’s +115 to score, and his reception line is over/under 7.5. Give me the over 7.5 at -110. The juice is +105 to amass over 100 yards.
GREENBERG: It was pretty shocking that Matthew Stafford didn’t throw a touchdown pass last week, even though it was really cold in Chicago. I assume he’ll get at least one in Seattle. So that makes sense. I’ll take Nacua +115 to score. And I might just put that “New England is a lock” bounty on that Walker touchdown -150 bet. For the purposes of this column, let’s do it.
I’ll add a Seattle defense/special teams to score bet at +525. Going back to the New England-Denver game, I’ll add Courtland Sutton over 4.5 receptions +120 and Drake Maye +280 to score a touchdown. Anything else?
JACKSON: I think I’ll play a bunch of Seattle to win the Super Bowl futures paired with Horizon League basketball games and maybe Alabama basketball Saturday night since it’s bringing in a 7-foot pro player. That usually helps.
Speaking of help, my wife needs some help shoveling the driveway. I can’t wait for the Super Bowl props!