Joe Espada has been upfront about wanting to start the season with a six-man rotation. Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, Mike Burrows and Tatsuya Imai appear to have four of those spots locked up, but what about the other two?
Here’s a list of contenders to watch with the start of spring training just a week away.
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Spencer Arrighetti
Arrighetti was limited to just seven starts and 35.1 innings last season. He missed four months after suffering a fractured thumb when he was struck by an errant ball during batting practice. He made five starts in August, but was shut down in September due to elbow inflammation.
The good news is that Arrighetti didn’t need elbow surgery, and told reporters at FanFest on Saturday that he’s thrown seven bullpens, which would seem to mean he’s on track to hit the ground running when spring training begins.
The 26-year old has an 87 ERA+ through his first two Major League seasons, but the Astros would be over the moon if he could find a way to come close to replicating the 3.18 ERA he posted in the second half of 2024 with a 29 percent strikeout rate and a 7.9 percent walk rate.
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Lance McCullers Jr
It’s now or never for McCullers, who is in the final year of the five-year, $85 million extension he signed before the 2021 season. McCullers returned after missing more than two seasons due to flexor tendon surgery and posted a 6.51 ERA over 55.1 innings in between three separate IL stints, though none were arm-related.
If you’re looking for signs of optimism for the 32-year old in 2026, you can point to a few starts early in his return. He struck out 12 while allowing three runs over six innings against the A’s on May 28, tossed six shutout innings against the Pirates six days later, and limited the Dodgers to one run over six innings on July 4, but compiled an 8.10 ERA over his final seven games.
Despite the IL time, McCullers was healthy when the season ended, which should’ve given him a normal offseason ramp-up for the first time in a long time, but it’s hard to think he recaptures the form that earned him a top-10 Cy Young finish, the season before his extension kicked in.
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Jason Alexander
Claimed off waivers from the A’s in May, Alexander saved an Astros rotation ravaged by injuries. The 32-year old journeyman put up a 3.66 ERA and the Astros won 10 of his first 11 before losing his last two.
Whether or not Alexander can repeat that success remains to be determined. His FIP with the Astros was a run higher than his ERA, and there is a lot of blue in his Baseball Savant profile, and a good portion of that blue is dark. His 22 percent chase rate was in the bottom 1 percent in all of baseball. That’s a tough way to make a living.
Ryan Weiss
The Astros thought enough of Weiss that they gave him $2.6 million after compiling a 2.87 ERA with a 28.6 percent strikeout rate in 178.2 innings last season in the KBO. Last season marked a major improvement for the former fourth-round pick, who posted a 3.77 ERA in the second half of 2024 after beginning the year in the Atlantic League.
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Weiss shows average fastball velocity, though Astros GM Dana Brown said he was able to touch 97 mph in Korea, and his command and control, which were strengths for him during his first stateside stint, improved in the KBO.
Whether or not Weiss’ improvements last season carry over is still to be determined. He pitched parts of three seasons in Triple-A for the Diamondbacks and Royals, posting a 6.72 ERA over 89.2 innings, and his numbers in Double-A were not much better.
AJ Blubaugh
Blubaugh made his Major League debut April 30, allowing two runs over four innings against the Tigers, and did not return to the big leagues until August, when he pitched well every time Joe Espada gave him the ball. Blubaugh finished last season with a 1.69 ERA over 32 innings, mostly working out of the bullpen as a long reliever.
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The 26-year old showed average fastball velocity and relied on a sweeper against right-handers, but opponents went 0-for-29 against his changeup, which he could throw effectively to both lefties and righties. While the sample size was small, Blubaugh’s FIP was almost three runs higher than his ERA, indicating some good fortune, though his strikeout numbers suggest his low ERA wasn’t entirely a mirage.
Possibly the biggest question moving forward is whether the Astros view Blubaugh as a starter. He made only three starts, and he was never asked to turn a lineup over twice, topping out at 19 batters faced in his first two Major League outings.
Colton Gordon
Gordon compiled a 5.34 ERA over 86 innings in his first taste of Major League action last season. The 27-year old had one of baseball’s lowest walk rates, but he did not miss bats and allowed too much hard contact. Opponents batted .298 against his four-seam fastball with a .645 slugging percentage. That pitch posted a -10 run value, per Baseball Savant, and his sweeper—against which opponents slugged .515—carried a -7 run value.
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Unless he improves his fastball velocity, which is well below average, or develops another weapon, it’s hard to see Gordon surviving as a Major League starter.
Nate Pearson
The Astros signed Pearson to a one-year, $1.35 million contract in October, a month after he was released by the Cubs. Once one of baseball’s top prospects, the 29-year old has a 5.17 ERA in 123 major league games, almost entirely out of the bullpen, but represents an intriguing reclamation project for a team with a strong track record of fixing pitchers.
While major league success has eluded Pearson, elite velocity has not. The right-hander’s four-seam fastball averaged 97.6 mph last season, and he has a slider that generated a 37.5 percent whiff rate in 2024. He probably profiles more as a reliever, but a starter with elite velocity is a hot commodity, and Pearson reunites with Brown, who was part of the Blue Jays’ front office when he was drafted in the first round nine years ago.
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Miguel Ullola
Rated as the Astros’ best pitching prospect by MLB.com, Ullola finished 2025 with a 3.88 ERA while appearing in 28 games (23 starts) and logging 113.2 innings for Triple-A Sugar Land. He posted a 26.6% strikeout rate, but also walked nearly 16% of the hitters he faced. It’s hard to see him finding consistent success at the major league level if he doesn’t throw more strikes.
The good news is that his ERA dropped to 3.00 in Sugar Land, where conditions more closely resemble big league parks, but that did nothing to rein in his walk rate, which actually ticked up slightly.