The NBA trade deadline has passed. The rosters, more or less, are set (we’ll see what happens in the buyout market). The All-Star break is nearing, and after that we’ll be into the stretch run of the regular season. These playoff races are tight beyond the top spot of each conference.
So how do we see it shaking out? Factoring in remaining schedules, roster upgrades, recent play, tanking incentives, tiebreakers and everything else pertinent to positioning, let’s take a shot at predicting the final standings in each conference with almost exactly two months to go.
West playoff teams
OKC has a 3 ½-game lead over San Antonio. The Spurs in turn has a 3 ½-game lead over Houston. Those two seeds should hold. From No. 3 down it’s a free-for-all. Nothing about the Nuggets’ case on paper says they should end up at No. 3. Aaron Gordon is out perhaps until mid-March and they’ve been a break-even team without him. They have the hardest remaining schedule. They’ve lost four of six since Nikola Jokić’s return. This last factor only tells me they’re about to go on a run. That’s how much I, and you, should, believe in the world’s best player.
Houston is the team that has the easiest remaining schedule on paper, but the Rockets are also the only team among the West’s current top 11 teams that has double-digit losses against sub-.500 teams. They just haven’t been consistent enough for me to trust them in games they should win, and I’m especially concerned now with the Steven Adams offensive rebounding advantage removed.
Minnesota hasn’t been great against plus-.500 teams so far and has the league’s fourth-toughest remaining schedule, but I love the Ayo Dosunmu addition and I think Anthony Edwards, who has been awesome in the clutch this season, wins them enough tight games down the stretch to land a top-four seed.
West play-in teams
Phoenix is tied in the loss column with No. 6 Minnesota entering play on Wednesday and is just two games back of a top-four seed. The Suns have the league’s fifth-toughest remaining schedule, which includes two more dates vs. OKC, San Antonio and Boston, and one more each against Denver and Houston.
At the moment the Suns have a 2-1 advantage over the Lakers in head-to-head with one matchup remaining. If the Suns, who are currently just one game back of the Lakers, win that game on Feb. 26 and secure the tiebreaker, I will give Phoenix the edge for the No. 6 seed. But until then, the Lakers have a big chance to increase their lead to two over Phoenix and catch them in division wins (the next tiebreaker) with games against Sacramento and two more against Golden State remaining, and they have the same number of remaining games vs. tanking teams (11) as Phoenix.
Even after the Harden and Ivica Zubac trades, I’ll say the Clippers hold onto a play-in spot because they have every incentive to do so. They don’t own their 2026 first-round pick. Darius Garland will likely come back. This remains a talented team.
West lottery teams
The Kings have a three-loss “lead” on the league’s worst record. The Jazz are seasoned tankers and already putting on a fourth-quarter-concession clinic. New Orleans is the only team here with no reason to tank; the Pelicans don’t own their 2026 pick. For that reason I think the Jazz do what it takes to fall below the Pelicans, but the Mavericks and Grizzlies have too much distance to cover with six- and eight-game advantages, respectively.
NBA Tank Watch: Ranking nine teams gunning for No. 1 pick after trade deadline
John Gonzalez
East playoff teams
No team has more remaining games against tanking teams than the Cavs, who have added James Harden as a short-term upgrade over the injured Darius Garland and were finding their stride even before the trade. They are too far back to catch Detroit, but I like them jumping New York and Boston for the No. 2 seed and then we will see if Harden can shake his shaky playoff reputation.
In reality, 2-7 is a crapshoot in the East. Boston has been the most consistent team outside of Detroit, but I like the way the Knicks are playing of late (as long as Jose Alvarado can reasonably cover for the troubling loss of Deuce McBride for at least the remainder of the regular season) and Karl-Anthony Towns has to start making 3s at some point.
Philly and Toronto are tied 2-2 in head-to-head, but right now Philadelphia has a four-game edge in Atlantic Division record, which would be the next tiebreaker. In a race this close, the tiebreaker matters. Paul George being out for 19 more games is a problem, but the Sixers have fared well enough without post-suspension.
I really believe in Tyrese Maxey, and with the Raptors having the sixth-toughest remaining schedule and the Magic having 13 remaining games against taking teams, I’ll say Orlando jumps Toronto for the No. 6 seed.
East play-in teams
The Hornets the best story in the NBA right now. They’ve won nine of their last 10 and took Detroit to the wire on Monday. The starting lineup rules. They’re too far back of Orlando (five games in the loss column) to realistically catch the Magic or the Raptors, but they’re only two back of No. 8 Miami. Plenty of time to catch the Heat and give themselves two play-in games to win one and secure a playoff spot.
East lottery teams
The Bulls are one back of Charlotte and Atlanta so a play-in spot is right there. Losing Nikola Vučević hurts and all their point guards are an experiment for the future more than a win-now blueprint. Milwaukee is tied with Chicago in the loss column but is highly motivated to secure as a high a lottery pick as possible to try, however foolish it would probably be, to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo by dangling that pick in a trade.
The Wizards traded for Anthony Davis and Trae Young, but do not expect to be seeing much of them as Washington has a top-eight protected pick it owes to the Knicks. Any team with a protected pick is going throttle down to make sure they keep it in a draft class like this one, but I’ll still give the edge to Indiana to secure the East’s worst record with a two-loss head start as of the writing.