Shohei Ohtani for Cy Young? Why it’s a long shot for Dodgers superstar in 2026

Dodgers two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani is going to finish his career having won pretty much everything a player can. He’s already done most of it. Ohtani is a four-time MVP, a four-time Silver Slugger, the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year, a two-time World Series champ and the NLCS MVP. One item that remains absent in Ohtani’s trophy case is the Cy Young award. His best finish was fourth in AL Cy Young voting in 2022. 

Heading into the 2026 season, Ohtani was asked in Dodgers camp about winning the Cy Young. He was diplomatic, as usual. 

“If at the end, the result is getting a Cy Young, that’s great,” Ohtani said, according to an interpreter (via ESPN). “Getting a Cy Young means being able to throw more innings and being able to pitch throughout the whole season, so if that’s the end result, that’s a good sign for me. What I’m more focused on is just being healthy the whole year.”

Could Ohtani pull that off this season? It seems highly unlikely. To be clear, Ohtani was basically saying he just hopes to have the type of workload that could get a pitcher in consideration, not that he definitely thinks he can take it this year. We’re going to head down that path on our own, though. 

First off, here are the betting favorites for NL Cy Young, per DraftKings

2026 NL Cy Young favorites

Ohtani sits at +3000, trailing three others and having the same odds as five fellow starters — so he’s more in “dark horse” range than “longshot,” but he’s not toward the top of the field. 

There’s a reason for that and it’s something we already mentioned. It’s the workload. Ohtani returned to the mound last season after having undergone major elbow surgery late in the 2023 season. He made 14 starts in the regular season, but it was such a slow build that this only yielded 47 innings. He was basically a normal starter in the playoffs, working 20 ⅓ innings in four starts. He went six innings each in his first three starts, respectively, before getting pulled due to being hit hard in his World Series outing.

The Dodgers plan the season out in advance, all the way through the World Series. That’s how good they are and where their expectations should remain. The Cy Young is a regular-season award. The lowest innings output we’ve seen from a Cy Young-winning starter in the last several decades is 167 from Corbin Burnes in 2021. Last season, both Cy Young winners were over 185 innings. In 2024, both topped 175. In 2023, both topped 180. 

This is to say that even in this era, it would be pretty surprising to see a starter win a Cy Young with less than 165 innings. 

Are the Dodgers really going to push Ohtani from 67 ⅓ innings in his first season post-surgery recovery to 150-plus in the regular season, before we even discuss the playoffs? Keep in mind, he’s an everyday designated hitter. 

I’m just not seeing it. 

Ohtani is a special case, of course, and he’s likely capable of grabbing subconscious — or even conscious — “bonus points” with voters due to him being a two-way player. Then again, in looking at this fourth-place finish in 2022, he was probably slotted just about right and maybe even could have finished in third there. 

He worked 166 innings that year. I’m very dubious that the Dodgers will use him that many regular-season innings this season, but let’s put his 2022 season next to the 2025 season of NL Cy Young winner Skenes, just to see what they look like: 

• Skenes 2025: 10-10, 1.97 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 216 K, 42 BB, 187 ⅔ IP, 7.7 WAR
• Ohtani 2022: 15-9, 2.33 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 219 K, 44 BB, 166 IP, 6.2 WAR

If they both post those numbers in 2026, Skenes is going to beat Ohtani. 

And, again, I think Ohtani’s innings are capped much lower than that. Let’s say he works 150 innings (I’d take the under, by the way). Ohtani would, in that case, probably need to strikeout at least 200 while posting a sub-2.00 ERA in order to gain serious consideration.

It could happen, absolutely. I’m just not betting on it. Not this year. He needs to work back up into the 150 innings range this season before hoping to get up closer to 175 the following season.