2026 NFL Draft Rookie Profile: Fernando Mendoza (Fantasy Football)

For Fernando Mendoza, we know the landing spot and we just watched a magical season unfold before our eyes. In other words, it would be easy for us to move forward without many questions for the 1.01.

But apologies, it is just not in my nature to not question and not dig deeper. (Yes, I used the word not three times in that sentence to hopefully triple down what I hope to accomplish in this article.)

“What am I not seeing?” is a question I ask often when evaluating prospects on film. It is easy to splice together highlight reel takes and forget that we are looking at college football players; in other words, the majority of players the prospect faced will never be playing on an NFL field and likely will be vying to sell you life insurance or go to high school coaching.

I think the hardest part of evaluating a college QB is trying to determine if they don’t do something because they can’t or they weren’t asked to.

— Quincy Avery (@QuincyAvery) January 10, 2026

The goal in this article is to lay out everything on the table including his college production profile, his measurables, and then reveal what I saw on film and what I didn’t see.

We recently highlighted the QB & TE prospects on the Dynasty Podcast giving our high-level thoughts and how they translate for fantasy.

Editors Note: This article is part of our Rookie Profile series going on until the 2026 NFL Draft. For more on each rookie, check out Andy, Mike, and Jason’s exclusive rookie rankings and production profiles found only in the Dynasty Pass, part of the UDK+ for 2026.

College Production Profile

Mendoza’s storybook college career is one of the most compelling parts of the future No. 1 overall pick. From his humble beginnings as a lightly recruited 3-star QB from Miami, he was overlooked despite his size ranked as the 140th QB nationally. Initially, Mendoza committed to Yale but was convinced to flip to California when Bill Musgrave (then the OC/QB coach of Cal and now currently the Jets QB coach) laid out the path for Mendoza to grow as a QB. He redshirted as a freshman and then slowly worked his way into being the team’s starter in 2023.

Mendoza lost his first four games as a starter (not something you usually say about a future No. 1 overall pick) with a penchant for turning the ball over with a 5% turn-worthy play rate per PFF, tied for 102nd among 112 QBs with 250+ drop backs. He progressed as a passer in his sophomore year with a solid 75.5% adjusted completion percentage (22nd) although his pressure-to-sack rate (25.6%) ranked 105th in the nation. He missed two games with an illness but nevertheless proved himself to be a worthy college signal-caller under HC Justin Wilcox despite the team’s lack of major success.

In the 2025 transfer portal, Mendoza was a sought-after commodity ranking as the #4 QB by many recruiting services. Among many offers including his hometown Miami (FL), the clinching scenario for the Indiana Hoosiers was his younger brother Alberto being on the roster as part of HC Curt Cignetti’s first recruiting class.

The 2025 season was one for the ages as Indiana went from ranked 23rd in the preseason to an undefeated national championship. Mendoza jumped in every single meaningful statistical category including adjusted completion percentage (79%), which ranked 3rd in the nation. If you are searching for accolades, Mendoza has them becoming Indiana’s first-ever Heisman Trophy winner and the first in the Big Ten since 2006.  He is the only FBS QB ever with six games of 4+ TD passes and zero interceptions. His 10.8% TD Rate was over two % points higher than the next closest passer (Julian Sayin, Ohio State; 8.7%).

Aided by 16 games played in this CFB playoff format, he became 1 of 9 college QBs over the last decade to post 40+ Passing TDs and a 70+ % completion percentage:

There is so much more to Mendoza’s story including his mother’s battle with MS (which was detailed in this Player’s Tribune piece), his appearance on late night talk shows after their championship, and

Measurables

Let’s discuss Mendoza in the context of his physical attributes compared to the other top prospects using our Production Profiles in the Dynasty Pass.

Looking at the athletic build of what traditionally has produced a QB1 fantasy season, Mendoza’s height obviously differentiates him. I will add that the evolution of “what an NFL passer should look like” has also changed drastically over the years. Physical traits were often valued above the mental processing while pint-sized passers like Drew Brees and Russell Wilson recalibrated what success could look like at the NFL level.

For me personally, measurables with QBs are secondary to me and don’t get me started on QBs and their Pro Days… We have “buckets” to group players into because it is helpful for our brains to process. We crave order, meaning, and love connecting the dots, even when it is irresponsible (statistically speaking) to do so.

Historical data gives us some boundaries to work with… but it is not perfect, especially at QB. Part of my research process often is finding the historical significance of certain positions. This is one of the areas I feel most informed when researching for the Dynasty podcast, DFS & Betting Podcast, and especially for the Fantasy Footballers main podcast. Heck, I feel like I’m looking something up in my spreadsheets or on certain websites (thanks Stathead!) almost daily to find out how often something occurred in recent history.

Dear lord, we love playing connect-the-dots as fake football managers for our fake teams. But every player has hundreds of buckets.

For example, here are a couple of different buckets you could sort Mendoza into:

Here are all the 6’5″ or taller QBs drafted in the 1st round since 1998: Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf, Byron Leftwich, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jason Campbell, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell, Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, Cam Newton, Blake Bortles, Paxton Lynch, Carson Wentz, Josh Allen, Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert, and Trevor Lawrence

Here are all the QBs drafted in the 1st round, who won a National Championship, and a Heisman trophy since 2000:

Here are the only QBs drafted by the Raiders in the 1st round:

• Roman Gabriel (1962)
• Marc Wilson (1980)
• Todd Marinovich (1992)
• Jamarcus Russell (2009)

Ok, that last one was just to realize it’s been 15+ years since the Raiders spent a 1st round pick on a QB!

You’ll see stats like “x% of QBs have busted over the last decade” and often that data is used to support what will happen in the future just because that player happens to be a QB fitting that same criteria. However, stats like these are orthogonal to someone’s performance in 2026. In other words, it is statistically independent and does not influence their actual performance. There is ZERO correlation between the two points. These are fun data points and yet they do not carry the weight and significance to Mendoza’s future outcomes like we think it does.

Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza (15) looks downfield as Roman Hemby (1) fakes the handoff during the College Football Playoff National Championship college football game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Monday, Jan. 19, 2026.

What’s On Tape

What do we see on the actual football field from Mendoza? While perusing the California film is tempting, we’re going to focus mostly on this past season’s title run at Indiana.

My method for watching film is simple: get out a pen and pad of paper. Watch each pass attempt taking note of the down and distance and simply write down what I see. For a QB, I focus on accuracy, aDOT (specifically intermediate area throws), footwork, locating 2nd reads, and how they stand in the pocket under pressure. For Mendoza, I took ten of his highest-profile games including two from 2024 and all of the college football playoff games.

Games Viewed: Iowa, Michigan State, Penn State, Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon (x2), Miami (FL), Pittsburgh (2024), Stanford (2024)

1. Sees & Spins It

You are going to hear the words “elite processor” over and over again as people describe Mendoza.

Perhaps a better way to describe what shows up on film is that he “sees the field” and “spins the ball”, a rare combination in my opinion. It is one thing to able to read defenses and know where to go with the football. The NFL is a cat-and-mouse game of defenses responding to offenses and trying to differentiate their approach as well as their pre-snap coverage looks. That part of being an NFL signal caller is paramount and everything I’ve read and seen regarding Mendoza is that he is an intellectual giant. This clip of him describing a game-winning TD and the intricacies of Penn State’s defensive coverages is one of my favorite stopping Urban Meyer in his tracks.

However, Mendoza’s ability to “spin the ball” is more-so related to how the ball pops up out of his hand. His arm strength is fine but not necessarily elite; yet, it is the velocity he generates from his three quarters throwing motion is pretty impressive. This type of delivery is ideal for quicker releases in the screen game and intermediate area throws in a West Coast-style of offense. This outside the numbers bomb in the Iowa game showcases the type of anticipation, timing, and rhythm that makes him intriguing at the next level.

A lot of times you watch a college QB try to “heave” the ball down field while Mendoza’s deep ball has enough zip to make it 35-40+ yard down the field. The seam route and back-shoulder throws are already part of his arsenal which Raiders fans have to love thinking about a possible connection with TE Brock Bowers.

Mendoza’s 126.3 passer rating in the short area of the field (0-9 yards) was #1 in the nation while he was 19th in the intermediate (10-19 yards) area of the field. The Hoosiers’ top WRs and future NFL draft picks Elijah Sarratt & Omar Cooper Jr. certainly offered plenty of opportunities for big plays throughout the course of the season but it is Mendoza’s patience and ability to see and spin it that will serve him well at the next level.

2. Absolute Gamer & Competitor

I almost thought about not including this but you can’t walk away from watching a year’s worth of Mendoza film and not appreciate the clutch moments that showed up on film. The big plays happened when they were needed most as Jim Sannes shared recently: averaging over 11 yards per play on 3rd or 4th downs with 6+ yards to go in 2025. That’s second best among drafted FBS QBs since 2010 trailing only Tua Tagovailoa.

This iconic run in the college football final will forever be part of his lore.

However, I kept a list of plays in my notes I watched that were just as timely just to share a few:

Stanford (2024)– Took over in 4th quarter with a pair of TD passes but I counted multiple 3rd down runs and a key 4th down conversion to TE Jack Endries (yes, the Texas TE was with him in Cal) that helped keep their hopes alive in the Big Game.

Iowa– Following up two incompletions, his 49-yard TD pass to Elijah Sarratt with 1:28 remaining TD was fortunate as Iowa came with Cover-0 look and an all-out blitz.

Oregon (1st game)– Recovered from throwing a Pick-6 to leading go-ahead 75-yard drive ending in a beautiful back shoulder throw to Sarratt. Multiple false start penalties backed them up in the drive but Mendoza responded.

Penn State– Game-winning drive of 87 yards culminating in a 7-yard TD pass in the back of the end zone to Omar Cooper Jr. There were multiple plays down the stretch worth highlighting (including some insane Charlie Becker catches) as FOX game announcer Gus Johnson lost it.

There is unending commentary about his leadership abilities and words like “poise” get used over and over again on broadcasts, almost to the point of cheapening it. If I could boil this down to one key point, it is this: there is a huge difference between statistics being descriptive (here’s what happened last year in this situation) and prescriptive (here’s what could happen with Fernando Mendoza). I share that all the time with our podcast listeners and yet, I am just as guilty as anyone trying to say this means that for the future. Regardless, the clutch/big time moments trait tells us what happened within the context of Indiana’s magical season but the context of the NFL might be a different story…

3. Stepping Into Sacks

Of all the games I watched, the Iowa game might’ve been one of the toughest games for Indiana to grind out. Mendoza had trouble navigating the pocket against the Hawkeye pass rush completing just 13 total passes on the day. At the end of the 3rd quarter, with the score tied 10-10, Mendoza took a hit while running down the sidelines that ignited the Hoosier sidelines and eventually the team came away with a victory despite his subpar performance.

If we ended the profile there, you’d probably walk away asking what is the issue? Despite being a precision passer and elite processor, the one area of concern on the tape was “stepping into sacks”. It is one thing to see pressure and avoid it; however, another layer for QBs who routinely make plays outside the pocket or live off hero ball moments are the sacks of no fault but their own.

Mendoza’s 19.2% pressure-to-sack ratio is somewhat of a warning sign as he transitions to the NFL. Here are the highest 1st round QBs since 2018 with Justin Fields sitting at a whopping 25% of pressures that resulted in sacks his final year at Ohio State.

If we take this a step further, QB-responsible sacks might be even more indicative of Mendoza’s bugaboo heading to the next level.

26% of his pressures were deemed “QB-responsible” per PFF, an alarmingly high number when you stack it up against other 1st round QB prospects. In fact, the only 1st round QBs with a P2S% of 19+ % and 25+% QB responsibility include Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Kenny Pickett. Remember those are adjacent players in this stat only but as you saw throughout the NFL playoffs, Drake Maye routinely stepped into sacks against LAC, HOU, DEN, and SEA that exposed some of the young QB’s play. If you want a deeper dive on the subject, Rotoworld’s Zachary Krueger did a great job highlighting Mendoza’s negative play rate and elevated pressure-to-sack ratio in the CFB playoffs as a potential red flag.

You can look at this takeaway from a couple of different viewpoints:

• Mendoza is a smart player who will take lumps in the NFL but can grow like Caleb Williams did from Year 1 to Year 2.
• Mendoza’s offensive line was elite and he received as good as protection as anyone in the NCAA.
• He avoided “big hits” this past year. However, they will come in the NFL.

If you’re asking yourself which one is most true, the answer is likely… YES. All of them need to be taken into account especially for a QB with underrated escapability and a hero mentality of taking off and not always getting “down”. There were a couple of scrambles (against future NFL draft picks) where Mendoza tries to make a play outside the pocket where he doesn’t throw the ball away but sticks in a bit longer than I would’ve liked especially against Penn State. There were designed draw plays where, once he got past the first line of defense, he tried to spin and avoid tacklers more than I would want than my NFL franchise QB.

In summation, Mendoza was not pressured a ton but when he was, the results were middling at best in terms of counting stats. He stepped into sacks at a higher rate than we’d like while often displaying less than stellar footwork inside the pocket when pressured. I have to use several caveats because there were times he looked like a magician and obviously a Heisman season is not without a plethora Heisman/Houdini moments.

What’s Not on Tape

Here are a couple of takeaways from what didn’t show up:

1. Play-Action Success Under Center

If you are searching for play-action highlights, they might be few and far between. Only 10 of Mendoza’s 41 passing TDs utilized play-action and the difference in his yards per attempt (-2.0) was the largest of any QB in the FBS in 2025. It was not a staple of the Indiana passing game as Mendoza took 2(!) total snaps under center running exclusively in shotgun formations. There is not enough film to say he can or cannot excel in this area. Expect a lot of training camp talk about installing play-action to “give him easy looks”, which is just coach speak for “this dude is a rookie”.

The reason I bring up this as a relative “yellow flag” is the play-caller (Kubiak) we are connecting with Mendoza had so much success last year with Sam Darnold under center and the Seahawks utilizing multiple TE looks to disguise the run/pass option. On average, a quarter of NFL drop backs utilize play-action and the QB was under center on 58% of those plays. Darnold’s 11.9 yards per attempt on play-action passes under center led the NFL. The RPO-style from shotgun that Mendoza is used to can translate as evidenced by Jaxson Dart and his early success. Consider that a ridiculous 50+ percent of his drop backs were play-action-based his final year at Ole Miss. He leaned more into shotgun-based play-action (64%) as a rookie than Darnold (14%) with admirable results considering his weapons.

2. Taking Over Games as a Runner

Ok, technically Mendoza won a Natty on that gutsy run I highlighted earlier and sealed that victory. However, we do need to temper any expectations you might have about Mendoza being a fantasy difference maker on the ground. There are moments when you can see him escape the pocket and take off with more than adequate speed for rushing to be a bonus at the next level:

With a 7.7% scramble rate in 2025, he profiles as someone with rushing as a bonus, not necessarily a primary weapon. Think of how we look at QBs like Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy or even Bryce Young adding 10-15 yards a game on the ground for fantasy. Maybe you put Mendoza more in the category of a tall runner like Justin Herbert who gets designed looks and just came off a season where he led the entire NFL in scramble yards (439) thanks to his beaten up offensive line! Before you simply connect the dots (tall guy = tall guy), we do have some numbers to compare what worked in college and what worked in the NFL.

First, keep in mind that total rushing yards in college differ than how they are calculated in the pros. Yards lost from sacks are taken into account in college which certainly makes this process not exactly apples to apples. However, it does highlight the negative plays aspect and “stepping into sacks” argument I made earlier.

I looked at every 1st round QB drafted since 1995 (75+ different guys) and then narrowed that list to every QB that saw at least a 5 percent rush share in their best rushing season, a total of 40. That was the threshold I found where college rushing production dictated that they were likely to carry over into the NFL. You can also see the emphasis on dual-threat QBs over the last two decades where the “pro-style” drop-back passer of yesteryear slowly faded as a 1st round must at the position. However, the true fantasy difference-makers needed to see 18+ % of their team’s rushing yardage in their best season.

As a runner, he certainly projects on the lower end of recent 1st round prospects:

Fantasy Outlook

When you mix in a relatively weak draft class with Mendoza’s winning mentality, production, and precision passing, it is not hard to see why the Raiders would envision him as their heir apparent at QB. On the Dynasty Podcast, we discussed his floor but raised concerns of his fantasy ceiling due to the lack of rushing. In our first rookie mock draft in the Dynasty Pass, Mendoza went at the 1.10 in a 1QB league. In SuperFlex, he likely slides up to being the next player off the board behind Jeremiyah Love.Depending on your strategy and team needs, Mendoza is not a must-target if you are looking for fantasy upside at the QB position and would prefer selecting the next best RB/WR on your board. As of this publishing, I feel more comfortable in the 1.05-1.06 range which means I probably wouldn’t be getting him.

Klint Kubiak’s system just produced a Super Bowl-winning season so it is not hard to be bullish on the prospects of the Raiders and Mendoza’s future. Think of the ingredients that made Sam Darnold successful in Year 7 of his career: