Oscars Odds 2026 – Oscars Betting Odds, Lines & Predictions

Now we wait. Many of the precursors are in the books, and we’re less than a month away from the 98th Academy Awards.

The 98th edition of the Academy Awards will take place at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood on Sunday, March 15, with Conan O’Brien hosting for the second consecutive year.

Below, you can find the latest 2026 Oscars odds and predictions for every category from Best Picture to Best Editing to Best Short Animated Film.

2026 Oscars predictions

Predictions made on February 16, 2026.

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Odds to win Best Picture

Best Picture Nominees

• Bugonia
• F1
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners
• Train Dreams

“Sinners” may lead the way with nominations, but it is not the frontrunner when it comes to Best Picture odds. That honor still belongs to “One Battle After Another,” which received 13 nominations and has been earmarked for the show’s top honor since its release in August.

If any movie is in a position to usurp the action/comedy/thriller, it is “Sinners,” which currently boasts a 11% chance at emerging victorious. The Shakespeare drama “Hamnet” is a distant third at 4% and lagging in odds to win Best Picture.

Prediction: “One Battle After Another”

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Odds to win Best Director

Best Director Nominees

• Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”)
• Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”)
• Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”)
• Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”)
• Chloe Zhao (“Hamnet”)

Paul Thomas Anderson won at the Directors Guild Awards, which may have wrapped this category up entirely. Since 1948, when the DGA first handed out the award, only eight winners have failed to subsequently capture the Best Director Oscar, with the most recent instance being when Sam Mendes lost to Bong Joon-ho in 2019. 

Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson

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Odds to win Best Actor

Best Actor Nominees

• Timothee Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”)
• Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”)
• Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”)
• Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”)
• Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”)

Best Actor looked mostly chalk based on where we were trending ahead of the nominations, with Timothee Chalamet on track to win his first Oscar. It’s a strong field, though, and Leonardo DiCaprio – who has often been used as a comp for Chalamet – waited a long time before the Oscars called his name for “The Revenant.”

This race has tightened, though, with Michael B. Jordan now running in second at 20% and DiCaprio behind him at 11%. Moreover, Ethan Hawke could easily be given the “career-acknowledgement” Oscar, and Wagner Moura is highly celebrated for “The Secret Agent.” I’m sticking with Chalamet, but I am far from certain.

Prediction: Timothee Chalamet

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Odds to win Best Actress

Best Actress Nominees

• Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”)
• Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”)
• Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”)
• Renate Reinsve (“Sentimental Value”)
• Emma Stone (“Bugonia”)

Kate Hudson is a bit of a surprise as the fifth Best Actress nominee, and her Academy Award odds reflect it, considering Chase Infiniti was considered a strong possibility for a nomination. Still, Jessie Buckley was more or less announced as the frontrunner when “Hamnet” debuted at festivals, and she hasn’t relinquished any ground.

Rose Byrne appeared to have momentum, jumping to 30.6% probability in late December, but that has since cratered to 6% with Buckley in firm command of the category.

Prediction: Jessie Buckley

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Odds to win Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor Nominees

• Benicio del Toro (“One Battle After Another”)
• Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”)
• Delroy Lindo (“Sinners”)
• Sean Penn (“One Battle After Another”)
• Stellan Skarsgard (“Sentimental Value”)

Delroy Lindo receiving a Best Supporting Actor nomination is a pleasant surprise, even if he probably won’t win. However, this category is way up in the air. Stellan Skarsgard won the Golden Globe, but Sean Penn won the BAFTA.

In what appears to be a “what have you done for me lately?” case, Penn has rocketed to 58% probability while Skarsgard has dropped to 23%. I like the dark horse in Benicio del Toro getting the surprise win due to uncertainty in the market.

Prediction: Benicio del Toro

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Odds to win Best Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actress Nominees

• Elle Fanning (“Sentimental Value”)
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (“Sentimental Value”)
• Amy Madigan (“Weapons”)
• Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”)
• Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”)

I liked Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in my predictions, and she has seemingly fallen off the board after Wunmi Mosaku won at the BAFTAs. 

Since winning at the Golden Globes, Teyana Taylor has steadily dropped in the odds. She’s still the favorite, but at 42%, that feels far less likely.

Prediction: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

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Odds to win Best Original Screenplay

Best Original Screenplay Nominees

• Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”)
• Robert Kaplow (“Blue Moon”)
• Jafar Panahi (“It Was Just an Accident”)
• Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein (“Marty Supreme”)
• Joachim Trier, Eskil Vogt (“Sentimental Value”)

Ryan Coogler seems positioned to be rewarded here instead of in Best Director, with an 93% chance of winning. Jafar Panahi is a fun alternative option, but “It Was Just An Accident” being left out of the Best Picture race, combined with his absence in Best Director, makes that unlikely. However, this would be an opportunity to get a global icon on the stage that might not otherwise present itself.

Prediction: “Sinners”

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Odds to win Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay Nominees

• Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”)
• Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar (“Train Dreams”)
• Guillermo del Toro (“Frankenstein”)
• Will Tracy (“Bugonia”)
• Chloe Zhao, Maggie O’Farrell (“Hamnet”)

If you’ve ever read any Thomas Pynchon, the idea that one of his novels could be adapted at all, let alone be nominated for an Academy Award, is absurd. And yet, Paul Thomas Anderson’s VERY LOOSE interpretation of “Vineland” is the frontrunner in the Best Adapted Screenplay category. 

And while it won’t win, Will Tracy’s “Bugonia” script reinterprets the 2003 Korean film, “Save the Green Planet!”, and is an inspired choice.

Prediction: “One Battle After Another”

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Odds to win Best Documentary Feature

Best Documentary Feature Nominees

• The Alabama Solution
• Come See Me in the Good Light
• Cutting Through Rocks
• Mr. Nobody Against Putin
• The Perfect Neighbor

While it’s somewhat surprising that Laura Poitras’ Seymour Hersh documentary, “Cover-Up,” was left behind, this has seemed like “The Perfect Neighbor’s” category. But, at 51%, its odds have declined steadily, as “Mr. Nobody against Putin” has gained traction.

Prediction: “The Perfect Neighbor”

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Odds to win Best International Feature

Best International Feature Nominees

• It Was Just an Accident
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sirat
• The Voice of Hind Rajab

Even though both “The Secret Agent” and “Sentimental Value” are present in the Best Picture race, it wouldn’t be wise to write “It Was Just an Accident” off entirely. “Sentimental Value” is being treated like the frontrunner at 65% probability, and that makes sense, but Jafar Panahi’s film being represented in Best Original Screenplay at least shows it’s not getting lost in the shuffle.

By that same logic, Wagner Moura’s Best Actor nomination and “The Secret Agent” getting a somewhat surprising Best Picture nod keep it alive here. This is an exciting category, and all five films are critically lauded. I’ll go with “The Secret Agent” as a slight upset.

Prediction: “The Secret Agent”

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Odds to win Best Animated Feature

Best Animated Feature Nominees

• Arco
• Elio
• KPop Demon Hunters
• Little Amelie or the Character of Rain
• Zootopia 2

“KPop Demon Hunters” is winning. 

Prediction: “KPop Demon Hunters”

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Odds to win Best Film Editing

Best Film Editing Nominees

• Olivier Bugge Coutte (“Sentimental Value”)
• Andy Jugensen (“One Battle After Another”)
• Stephen Mirrione (“F1”)
• Josh Safdie, Ronald Bronstein (“Marty Supreme”)
• Michael P. Shawver (“Sinners”)

Here’s another category that seems to belong to “One Battle After Another,” but it could also be one of the only spots that “F1” has a shot to break into. 

Prediction: “One Battle After Another”

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Odds to win Best Cinematography

Best Cinematography Nominees

• Michael Bauman (“One Battle After Another”)
• Autumn Durald (“Sinners”)
• Darius Khondji (“Marty Supreme”)
• Dan Laustsen (“Frankenstein”)
• Adolpho Veloso (“Train Dreams”)

Michael Bauman and Autumn Durald have swapped spots after the former won at the BAFTAs.

However, there was a brief time when Adolpho Veloso was neck-and-neck in the Kalshi prediction market. Cinematography is one of “Train Dreams'” only nominations, but it is a visually arresting film, especially for a Netflix release. If it is going to win anything, this is it, and I like the upset.

Prediction: “Train Dreams”

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Odds to win Best Visual Effects

Best Visual Effects Nominees

• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• F1
• Jurassic World Rebirth
• The Lost Bus
• Sinners

Both “Avatar” and “Avatar: The Way of Water” won Best Visual Effects. Even if the third installment isn’t represented in many other categories, it likely won’t be denied here.

Prediction: “Avatar: Fire and Ash”

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Odds to win Best Casting

Best Casting Nominees

• Gabriel Domingues (“The Secret Agent”)
• Nina Gold (“Hamnet”)
• Cassandra Kulukundis (“One Battle After Another”)
• Francine Maisler (“Sinners”)
• Jennifer Venditti (“Marty Supreme”)

The newest Oscars category has held firm as an expected win for “Sinners,” currently sitting at 64%, but “One Battle After Another” jumped from 13% to 39% in early February before dropping back to 24%.

Prediction: “Sinners”

Odds to win Best Costume Design

Best Costume Design Nominees

• Miyako Bellizzi (“Marty Supreme”)
• Ruth E. Carter (“Sinners”)
• Kate Hawley (“Frankenstein”)
• Deborah L. Scott (“Avatar: Fire and Ash”)
• Malgosia Turzanska (“Hamnet”)

Guillermo del Toro’s movies do well at the Academy Awards, and “Frankenstein” is no different. It won’t win many awards, but it is likely to be recognized for Kate Hawley’s costume work.

Prediction: “Frankenstein”

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Odds to win Best Production Design

Best Production Design Nominees

• Hannah Beachler, Monique Champagne (“Sinners”)
• Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton (“Hamnet”)
• Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau (“Frankenstein”)
• Jack Fisk, Adam Willis (“Marty Supreme”)
• Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlinmo (“One Battle After Another”)

See above. “Frankenstein” is expected to crush these categories.

Prediction: “Frankenstein”

Odds to win Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Best Makeup and Hairstyling Nominees

• Frankenstein
• Kokuho
• Sinners
• The Smashing Machine
• The Ugly Stepsister

Once again, the team behind “Frankenstein” (Cliona Furey, Jordan Samuel, Mike Hill) is poised to be recognized for craft work, as reflected in the Academy Award odds. This is a more interesting category, though, as it features “Kokuho,” “The Smashing Machine,” and “The Ugly Stepsister,” none of which are present anywhere else. It’s a bit of a surprising fall for “The Smashing Machine,” which was once seen as a possible opportunity for Dwayne Johnson to get a Best Actor nod.

Prediction: “Frankenstein”

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Odds to win Best Original Song

Best Original Song Nominees

• “Dear Me”(“Diane Warren: Relentless”)
• “Golden” (“KPop Demon Hunters”)
• “I Lied to You” (“Sinners”)
• “Sweet Dreams of Joy” (“Viva Verdi!”)
• “Train Dreams” (“Train Dreams”)

Just like in the Best Animated Feature category, “KPop Demon Hunters” will not be denied. If anything, it’s a surprise more songs from the film weren’t nominated.

Prediction: “Golden”

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Odds to win Best Original Score

Best Original Score Nominees

• Alexandre Desplat (“Frankenstein”)
• Jerskin Fendrix (“Bugonia”)
• Ludwig Goransson (“Sinners”)
• Jonny Greeenwood (“One Battle After Another”)
• Max Richter (“Hamnet”)

Ludwig Goransson is 2-for-2 in this category, previously winning for “Black Panther” and “Oppenheimer.” He’s probably getting the hat trick with “Sinners” if his Oscar odds are any indication.

Prediction: “Sinners”

Odds to win Best Sound

Best Sound Nominees

• F1
• Frankenstein
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Sirat

“F1” looks like the easy choice here, according to Oscar odds, though the inclusion of “Sirat” is a fun nod to a lesser-seen (and heard) movie that is built largely around a sonic experience. 

Prediction: “F1”

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Odds to win Best Documentary Short

Best Documentary Short Nominees

• All the Empty Rooms
• Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
• Children No More: Were and are Gone
• The Devil is Busy
• Perfectly a Strangeness

The shorts categories are always a crapshoot except in the odd year when a Wes Anderson releases something in one of these. “All the Empty Rooms” is a favorite at 64%, while both “Armed Only with a Camera” and “The Devil is Busy” are at 11%.

Prediction: “All the Empty Rooms”

Odds to win Best Live Action Short

Best Live Action Short Nominees

• Butcher’s Stain
• A Friend of Dorothy
• Jane Austen’s Period Drama
• The Singers
• Two People Exchanging Saliva

Even more than in Documentary Short, the Live Action edition is anyone’s guess, with “Two People Exchanging Saliva” leading the way at 43%. 

Prediction: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”

Odds to win Best Animated Short

Best Animated Short Nominees

• Butterfly
• Forevergreen
• The Girl Who Cried Pearls
• Retirement Plan
• The Three Sisters

Finally, “Butterfly” is a favorite here at 50%, a stark increase from its 40% position a little over a month ago. That probably doesn’t mean a lot. When making your predictions, either avoid these categories or go with the favorite in your Oscars pools.

Prediction: “Butterfly”

Best Picture odds in Canada

Film	Studio/Distributor
One Battle After Another	Warner Bros.	-275
Sinners	Warner Bros.	+275
Hamnet	Focus Features	+1400
Marty Supreme	A24	+2250
Sentimental Value	Neon	+5000
Bugonia	Focus Features/Universal Pictures	+7500
Frankenstein	Netflix	+7500
Train Dreams	Netflix	+7500
F1	Apple	+10000
The Secret Agent	Neon	+10000

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Academy Awards Odds FAQ

What movie is the betting favorite for Best Picture at the 2026 Oscars?

Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is the current betting favorite.

Who is the betting favorite to win Best Director in 2026?

Paul Thomas Anderson has the shortest odds to win Best Director.

Who are the betting favorites for Best Actor and Best Actress?

Timothee Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) are the current favorites.

When are the 2026 Academy Awards?

The 2026 Oscars are scheduled for March 15, 2026 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.

What won Best Picture in 2025?

Sean Baker’s Anora won Best Picture in 2025 after emerging as a surprise frontrunner during the fall festival season.

Who won Best Director at the 2025 Oscars?

Celebrated indie auteur Sean Baker, whose film Anora won Best Picture, took home the honors.

What lead actors won at the 2025 Oscars?

Mikey Madison won Best Actress for her titular role in Anora while Adrien Brody won for The Brutalist. It was Madison’s first nomination while Brody previously won for The Pianist in 2003.

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