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Bobby Witt Jr. made mirror-image highlight plays and Team USA is 3-0 in the World Baseball Classic. Plus: More information on the Olympic qualifying situation, Rates & Barrels asks if Kodai Senga’s velo jump is real and we check in on those run-it-back Phillies.
I’m Levi Weaver, welcome to The Windup!
World Baseball Classic: USA beats Mexico, takes control of Pool B
It all fell apart in the third inning for Team Mexico, over the course of six hitters. After a 95 mph comebacker from Bryce Harper smoked reliever Jesús Cruz in the right ankle, Mexico’s manager Benji Gil left his pitcher in to work through it. Here’s how it went after that:
- Aaron Judge home run (2-0 USA)
- Kyle Schwarber single
- Alex Bregman strikeout
- Cal Raleigh hit by pitch
- Roman Anthony home run (5-0 USA)
- Pitching change
Team Mexico made it interesting late — Jarren Duran hit two home runs, and the ninth inning started with a single by Joey Meneses. But three consecutive hitters, all representing the tying run, failed to reach base, ending the game.
It was USA’s first win against Mexico since 2006, when the teams went 1-1 in head-to-head action. Mexico has won twice (2009, 2023) in the years since.
With the win, Team USA improves to 3-0 and Team Mexico drops to 2-1.
But here was the highlight for me: Look at these two plays by Witt Jr.:
“Okay, sure,” the most callous and cynical of you might be saying. “But that’s Alejandro Kirk. I know how to use Baseball Savant and I can see that he’s only in the second percentile for sprint speed in the league.”
Very well. Here’s Witt one inning later, doing the same thing to Pirates infielder Nick Gonzales, who is in the league’s 87th percentile in sprint speed.
Sprint speed notwithstanding, I’m more impressed by the first one. It’s the higher bounce and the throw from one knee, for me. But both were beautiful and if I’ve ever seen better defensive plays in back-to-back innings, the memory eludes me for the time being.
In other WBC action, Puerto Rico beat Cuba 4-1, meaning it’ll move on to the tournament round. Cuba will have to beat Canada on Wednesday if it hopes to advance.
Meanwhile, Japan completed an undefeated pool play with a 9-0 win over Czechia, and Australia was eliminated in the most confusing and heartbreaking way. Because of tiebreaker rules, if Australia had lost 6-2 to Korea, it would have advanced. That was the score until a late error allowed a seventh run, eliminating Australia from tournament play. Korea now joins Japan as the two teams from Pool C to advance.
More WBC:
- Tarik Skubal is, in fact, returning to the Tigers, rather than pitching another game for Team USA.
- Julio Teheran was a late scratch for Colombia on Saturday. He has a shoulder impingement, and has announced his retirement.
- Former big-leaguer Jonathan Araúz of Panama had to be restrained while yelling at his manager in a 4-3 loss to Colombia.
🎙️ On the Pods: Senga’s velocity jump: News or noise?
Mets starter Kodai Senga averaged 96.7 mph on his four-seamer Saturday against the Cardinals. Is that a legit sign of Senga’s improvement from last season (when he averaged 94.7) or just a blip?
On the latest episode of “Rates & Barrels,” Eno Sarris says he thinks it’s real: “The velo alone sort of suggests that he’s healthy, and right now, he’s got above-average stuff on four pitches. He’s actually throwing a really wide arsenal of pitches, according to Statcast.”
“I’m interested. I want to know more about what’s going with Kodai Senga right now.”
Listen to the full episode for more from Eno and Derek VanRiper on Senga, as well as the World Baseball Classic, Twins pitcher Bailey Ober and plenty of other topics.
Oh What Fun: It is to … beef?
One fun (it’s fun, right? It’s fun) aspect of the WBC is MLB teammates facing each other on opposing tournament teams. Maybe the most iconic moment in WBC history was Shohei Ohtani striking out his then-Angels teammate Mike Trout to seal the win for Japan in 2023.
This … is not that. But if you like drama, then it’s definitely interesting.
Here’s a post from @Masterflip_ on Twitter (I will never call it X) interpreting a Randy Arozarena interview in Spanish. The context: Arozarena and Cal Raleigh are Seattle Mariners teammates. Last night, when Arozarena came to the plate, he offered a handshake greeting to Raleigh, and the catcher refused, apparently saying “Good to see you.”
The interpretation on the post is more or less accurate. You can read it yourself, but the short version is that Arozarena, in no uncertain terms, says that Raleigh can shove that “good to see you” … uh, how do we say this in a family-friendly newsletter? One “big dumper,” in particular, was referenced.
The first thing I thought of was Kobe Bryant knocking down his Lakers teammate Pau Gasol at the 2008 Olympics. And it turns out, maybe that was front of mind for Raleigh as well?
We’ll have to wait until the two get back to the team’s Peoria, Ariz., spring training facility to see if there’s any lingering hard feelings, but Arozarena certainly didn’t mince words last night. The Mariners, who missed the World Series by one run in Game 7 of last year’s ALCS, have to hope this blows over.
More Olympics: Q&A with Baggs about Olympics qualifiers
In yesterday’s Windup, we told you about Andrew Baggarly’s report that — unbeknownst to a lot of people — this WBC would be the last chance for teams from the Americas to qualify for the 2028 Olympics, while teams from Asia, Oceania, Europe and Africa will have other opportunities.
I had some follow-up questions, so I reached out to Baggs for the answers directly:
Hey Baggs, here’s my biggest question: The WBC already has some Byzantine tiebreaker rules. Do those translate 1-to-1 to Olympic qualifying?
Baggarly: They’re similar … Teams are first grouped according to the round in which they were eliminated. Teams eliminated in the semifinals are ranked against each other to determine third and fourth place. Teams eliminated in the quarterfinals are ranked against each other to determine positions fifth through eighth.
The first tiebreaker is overall winning percentage, taking into account all games played in the competition. The second tiebreaker is head-to-head result (if applicable). The third tiebreaker is runs allowed per recorded defensive out, considering all games played in the competition. The fourth tiebreaker is earned runs allowed per recorded defensive out, considering all games played in the competition. The fifth tiebreaker is team batting average.
I hadn’t seen this anywhere before you reported it — how did you learn about this process, and what caused you to chase down the details?
Baggarly: We journalists get these things emailed to us called press releases — a never-ending daily stream of them, actually — and 98 percent of them are easily dismissed. But I happened to take a second look at this one that arrived in my inbox on Friday because, well, the header was “World Baseball Classic starts Road to LA28; First Olympic Qualifier across all sports.”
I’m not sure how widespread the distribution list was, but I’m on the World Baseball Softball Confederation list because I happened to be in Japan when the 2019 Premier 12 tournament took place at the Tokyo Dome and I covered it for The Athletic. Once I realized what was at stake, particularly for teams from the Americas, I knew we needed to get this information out to people. I doubted that even the players from those teams fully realized what was at stake, and that this would be their only shot to qualify for the Olympics.
Whew … I know I’m asking for speculation, but do you think there will be any pushback from Latin American teams who are eliminated more than two years before the Olympics? Is there a chance they’ll increase the field from six to … I dunno … eight?
Baggarly: There’s going to be discussion, that’s for sure. Can you imagine if MLB lets its players compete in the Olympics for the first time and Venezuela or the Dominican Republic (or both) aren’t able to compete? But I’m not sure Rob Manfred can put a thumb on the scale here. The Olympic policies, procedures and governing bodies operate on another level entirely. This is the qualifying system that was put into place. It’s led to some weird outcomes in the past.
It’s worth pointing out that baseball had an eight-team field in the first five instances in which it was a medal sport. The field was only reduced to six for the first time with the 2020 Games in Tokyo (which were staged in 2021 because of the pandemic). This is just my speculation, but if there’s any amendments that can possibly be made at this stage, it would be to try to expand the field. I honestly don’t know how possible that might be, though.
Handshakes and High Fives
Stephen Nesbitt talked with Brewers manager Pat Murphy about his years managing Team Netherlands while Murphy was in his late 20s.
Jayson Stark provides some historical context on the run-it-back Phillies, and what history suggests is next.
Chad Jennings has more on Julio Teheran’s legacy, and what it meant to Colombia.
Dalton Rushing could be the next great Dodgers catcher. To do that, he’s learning from the current one.
Most-clicked in our last newsletter: Our WBC results/standings/schedule page, which — by the way — has been updated, so you can click it again if you want.
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