It’s still March, but the NBA could be giving us an early June preview when the Detroit Pistons visit the Oklahoma City Thunder (9:30 p.m. ET, Peacock). ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives OKC a 57.4% chance of reaching the Finals, and Detroit a 32.3% chance. The two teams have an 18.8% chance of meeting in the Finals, the highest of any potential matchup between the 20 postseason teams. However, Pistons star Cade Cunningham, who played his college basketball at Oklahoma State, remains out for Monday’s showdown.
Monday also brings a pair of critical games in the Eastern Conference seeding games, when the Philadelphia 76ers visit the Miami Heat, and the Atlanta Hawks play host to the Boston Celtics. Sixers-Heat ranks as the second-most-important remaining regular-season game per BPI, and Celtics-Hawks ranks in the top 10.
In the nightcap, the Los Angeles Lakers will be without the suspended Luka Doncic as they try and solidify their position at No. 3 in the West. They’ll welcome the tanking Washington Wizards to town. Washington is 6-31 on the road this season.
Here’s a look at the current and projected NBA playoff picture, the most important games left in the regular season and how the race for the No. 1 pick in June’s draft is shaping up:
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Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule | Friday’s scores
Clinching scenarios | Critical remaining games
Projected standings | Race for No. 1 pick
Current NBA playoff matchups
Eastern Conference playoffs
1. Detroit Pistons vs. 8. Play-in winner TBD
2. Boston Celtics vs. 7. Play-in winner TBD
3. New York Knicks vs. 6. Atlanta Hawks
4. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5. Toronto Raptors
Eastern Conference play-in
7. Philadelphia 76ers vs. 8. Orlando Magic
9. Miami Heat vs. 10. Charlotte Hornets
Loser 7/8 vs. Winner 9/10
Western Conference playoffs
1. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8. Play-in winner TBD
2. San Antonio Spurs vs. 7. Play-in winner TBD
3. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 6. Houston Rockets
4. Denver Nuggets vs. 5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Western Conference play-in
7. Phoenix Suns vs. 8. LA Clippers
9. Portland Trail Blazers vs. 10. Golden State Warriors
Loser 7/8 vs. Winner 9/10
Monday’s games
76ers at Heat, 7 p.m. ET (Peacock)
Celtics at Hawks, 7:30 p.m. ET
Suns at Grizzlies, 8 p.m. ET
Bulls at Spurs, 8 p.m. ET (Peacock)
Timberwolves at Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
Cavaliers at Jazz, 9 p.m. ET
Pistons at Thunder, 9:30 p.m. ET (Peacock)
Wizards at Lakers, 10 p.m. ET
Sunday’s scores
Clippers 127, Bucks 113
Pacers 135, Heat 118
Nets 116, Kings 99
Celtics 114, Hornets 99
Raptors 139, Magic 87
Trail Blazers 123, Wizards 88
Rockets 134, Pelicans 102
Thunder 111, Knicks 100
Nuggets 116, Warriors 93
Most important games left
Clinching scenarios
The Detroit Pistons clinch the Central Division with a win or a loss by the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The New York Knicks clinch a playoff a playoff spot with a Philadelphia 76ers loss.
The Denver Nuggets clinch a playoff spot with a loss by the Phoenix Suns and a win by the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Los Angeles Lakers clinch a playoff spot and the Pacific Division title with a win and loss by the Phoenix Suns.
Projected end-of-season standings
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NBA uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first four picks. All 14 teams that fail to make the playoffs are eligible to move up to the top four. After the order of the top four picks is set via the draw, the remainder of the first round is set in inverse order of the teams’ regular-season records. The three teams with the worst records each have an equal 14% chance of winning the lottery, with the odds for the non-playoff teams decreasing from there.
Among the projected lottery teams, there are multiple trades that could impact picks. The Atlanta Hawks will get the better of the picks from the New Orleans Pelicans and Milwaukee Bucks, with the lesser of the two picks going to Milwaukee. If the Indiana Pacers’ pick falls between five and nine, it will go to the LA Clippers. The Utah Jazz will send their pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside the top eight.
The Portland Trail Blazers will send their pick to the Chicago Bulls if it falls outside the lottery (if they make the playoffs through the play-in tournament). The Washington Wizards’ pick is top-eight protected, and the probability of their selection ending up ninth or worse is extremely low.