Jason Logan
• Senior Betting Analyst
21+ years betting experience
Updated:
Apr 5, 2026 , 12:07 AM ET
• 4 min read
Michigan opened as a 7.5-point favorite over UConn in Monday’s National Championship, after dismantling Arizona in the Final Four, but the big question is the health of star Yaxel Lendeborg.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Michigan Wolverines star Yaxel Lendeborg suffered a knee and ankle injury in the Final Four.
The Michigan Wolverines deservingly opened as 7.5-point favorites over the UConn Huskies in the National Championship, after punching their ticket to this title tilt with a one-sided squash of the Arizona Wildcats.
The Wolverines didn’t advance unscathed, however: Star forward Yaxel Lendeborg suffered a sprained knee Saturday — his availability for Monday is unknown, which will have a major impact on the March Madness odds.
On the other side of the bracket, Connecticut edged the Illinois Fighting Illini, locking down the nation’s No. 1 offense and showing their big game chops. The Huskies are now playing in their third title game in four years.
Here’s a look at the opening odds for Monday’s championship game, as well as how Michigan and UConn made their way to Indianapolis.
Opening March Madness National Championship odds
The look-ahead lines set before the Final Four results listed Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite against UConn. That’s where some books were out of the gate before others opened -7.5.
This spread is tempered due to Yaxel Lendeborg’s knee injury. If he were healthy, I think we’d see this line as high as UM -9 after the beating it put on Arizona.
The total of 144.5 points also reflects some hesitancy around Lendeborg’s injury: This number sits about five points higher than UConn’s closing total versus Illinois.
Both of these teams like to do damage inside, but can take — and make — plenty of shots from outside. Early game models sit a bit higher at 147 points (with Lendeborg participating).
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Michigan’s path to the national championship
The Wolverines earned the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region and pretty much cruised through that side of the bracket. Michigan did find itself in close games against Howard (First Round) and Alabama (Sweet 16), but erupted in the final 20 minutes of those wins.
It flattened Tennessee in the Elite Eight and then topped that effort with an absolute ass-waxing of Arizona in the Final Four.
Will Yaxel Lendeborg play in the National Championship?
All eyes are on the sprained knee of Michigan’s star forward heading into Monday’s title game. He suffered the injury in the first half on Saturday, but did return to play some sparse minutes in the second half, clearly looking hobbled by the injury.
His status for Monday is currently unknown, but his playing (or not playing) will move the market on Michigan.
UConn’s path to the national championship
Connecticut was the No. 2 seed in the East Region and got an uncomfortable win over No. 15 Furman in the opening round. The Huskies then got past UCLA (missing its starting center) in the Round of 32 and out-muscled Michigan State in the Sweet 16.
What happened next is now March Madness mythos: Connecticut rallied from 19 points down to the No. 1-overall seed Duke in the Elite Eight, as Braylon Mullins made a long 3-pointer in the dying seconds to put Dan Hurley’s team back in the Final Four.
The Huskies then handled Illinois in the semifinals and enter Monday’s championship… as underdogs for the third straight game.
Jason Logan’s initial lean: UConn +7.5
Lendeborg’s health is the big question. He was able to return to play but was noticeably limited, and that knee (and ankle) is going to swell and stiffen over the next two days. He really is an X-factor for UM as UConn doesn’t have anyone who can really match his skill set and size.
The Wolverines’ squash of Arizona will sit well with basketball bettors, so there won’t be a lack of support for Michigan… but I’m not going to count out UConn by any means.
The Huskies’ motion offense generates good looks (something Arizona couldn’t get) and UConn just put the clamps on a very good — and big — Illinois team. I’ll likely wait to bet this one and see if it goes up, then grab as many points as I can with the underdog.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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