Every MLB team is in action on Friday, which means there are 15 games worth of MLB betting opportunities to help you build a nest egg for the weekend. You can bet on standard options like the spread or run total, but you can also cash in on prop betting, including home run props. I’ve identified two strong MLB home run prop picks for Friday. In addition to my picks, MLB prop picks are available for every game at SportsLine, which has model plays and selections from other proven experts.
Over the past four MLB seasons, I’m up $1,681 on my MLB picks. You can find more of my picks at SportsLine, and in the member-exclusive SportsLine Discord server, a community of sports betting enthusiasts and SportsLine experts.
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Here are my home run prop picks and analysis for Friday (odds subject to change):
Davis Schneider, Blue Jays (+475, FanDuel)
I guarantee you that I didn’t go so sleep last night expecting to write about Toronto’s Davis Schneider. I don’t think even Davis Schneider thought about himself when he went to bed Thursday. I am honored to be part of the home-run rotation at CBS Sports, where I will get Fridays. I’m just going to be honest with you, though: I rarely bet home-run props. But I get the allure. “Chicks dig the long ball,” as the Nike campaign told us back when.
The thing about Schneider is that he doesn’t necessarily play every day and that’s why you might struggle to find odds on him. But I can’t imagine he’s not in the lineup tonight against Twins starter Simeon Woods Richardson — once a Blue Jays prospect. I’m not sure I’ve seen better limited splits by one batter against one pitcher, not that I go looking all the time: Schneider is 4-for-5 career off Woods Richardson with three homers and a double. It’s like they played Wiffle Ball together in the backyard: He just knows what’s coming (in Wiffle Ball, it’s always a curve you sit on.)
Schneider has barely hit so far thos season but had one of the most unusual games that any hitter may have this season Wednesday in the Jays’ comeback win over the Dodgers. He came in as a pinch-hitter and never put the ball in play but was arguably the game MVP with two walks and two runs scored. No weather concerns in Toronto as the Rogers Centre roof is usually closed.
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Josh Bell, Twins (+562, DraftKings)
As much as I love Toronto, it’s a complete and utter circumstance that I’m picking two home run props from that same Twins-Jays game. One issue I have with homer props is that the batter is likely only going to face the starting pitcher three times at most, and if it is three, that means said pitcher is doing well.
But it’s Patrick Corbin day! If you don’t know what that means, then you are not a serious MLB bettor. The Blue Jays have some pitching injuries, so they signed the veteran lefty last week and he’ll make his Jays debut tonight. Corbin actually wasn’t wretched last year (just bad) for Texas, but he’s a soft-tosser who is going to give up a jack or two.
Minnesota’s Josh Bell is one of those all-or-nothing types that have become common in this era of three true outcomes. But the 33-year-old is raking so far at .333 with three homers and a 1.066 OPS. Feeling pretty decent the Bell is rung tonight as he has three homers (and a double) in 16 career at-bats off Corbin. I may go play Over 1.5 total bases at +136.
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