Updated:
May 2, 2026 , 10:48 AM ET
• 4 min read
Horse racing expert Robert Criscola gives you the low-down on the Top 4 Kentucky Derby contenders, including favored Renegade.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. 2026 Kentucky Derby contender Renegade during an AM workout.
The Kentucky Derby odds were released not long after the Kentucky Derby post positions were revealed, and in spite of drawing the rail, No. 1 Renegade is the +400 morning-line favorite for America’s most famous horse race.
Renegade is just one of four Kentucky Derby contenders priced at shorter than +1000. My Kentucky Derby predictions size up the chances of Renegade, Commandment, Further Ado, and Chief Wallabee ahead of the “Run for the Roses” on Saturday, May 2.
2026 Kentucky Derby contenders and favorites
Renegade
I think drawing the rail post was a worst-case scenario for Renegade, who lacks early speed.
We’ve seen this movie before, with horses like Dornoch (future Belmont Stakes winner), Mo Donegal (ditto), and Afleet Alex (won the Preakness and Belmont) getting a nightmare trip from post No. 1 in the Kentucky Derby and not being able to demonstrate their true talent in the “Run for the Roses.”
Renegade was always going to be a lukewarm favorite regardless of the draw. For as good as his Arkansas Derby was, there were questions as to his quality after starting his career 0-for-3. I am leaving him off my tickets.
Commandment
Some Kentucky Derby horses haven’t even run four times, but Commandment carries a four-race win streak into the first leg of the Triple Crown.
Commandment beat both Chief Wallabee and The Puma in the Florida Derby, making that race arguably the toughest of any Kentucky Derby prep run in 2026. He also took the Fountain of Youth Stakes, a race which Sovereignty won prior to the 2025 Derby.
Of the Top 4 Kentucky Derby contenders based on the morning-line odds, this is my top selection.
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Further Ado
If the Kentucky Derby was being run at Keeneland in nearby Lexington instead of Churchill Downs, Further Ado would be the pick. But that’s not the case.
Further Ado didn’t show much in two sprints at Saratoga to start his career, but broke through in a big way when routing at Keeneland, winning by 20 lengths. He won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill next time out, but took a major step back speed-figure wise vs. what looked to be a weak field.
This year, he settled for second in the Tampa Bay Derby behind The Puma before his 11-length romp in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
Further Ado is too inconsistent to trust at this price.
Chief Wallabee
Chief Wallabee is being well-respected by the oddsmakers and betting public at +800 despite only a maiden win to his credit.
However, his losses were of the highest quality, grabbing second in the Fountain of Youth and third in the Florida Derby.
Chief Wallabee is trained by Bill Mott and will be ridden by Junior Alvarado, just as Sovereignty was last year. He may not be the greatest win bet on the board, but he’s hard to leave out of the exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.
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Kentucky Derby odds
| Post | Horse | Track odds |  |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renegade | 4-1 | +400 |
| 2 | Albus | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 3 | Intrepido | 50-1 | +5000 |
| 4 | Litmus Test | 50-1 | +5000 |
| 6 | Commandment | 6-1 | +600 |
| 7 | Danon Bourbon | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 8 | So Happy | 15-1 | +1500 |
| 10 | Wonder Dean | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 11 | Incredibolt | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 12 | Chief Wallabee | 8-1 | +800 |
| 14 | Potente | 20-1 | +2000 |
| 15 | Emerging Market | 15-1 | +1500 |
| 16 | Pavlovian | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 17 | Six Speed | 50-1 | +5000 |
| 18 | Further Ado | 6-1 | +600 |
| 19 | Golden Tempo | 30-1 | +3000 |
| 21 | Great White | 50-1 | +5000 |
| 22 | Ocelli | 50-1 | +5000 |
| 23 | Robusta | 50-1 | +5000 |
Odds at FanDuel Racing, one of our best Kentucky Derby betting sites.