The final event to qualify for Shinnecock Hills is this week’s RBC Canadian Open, which returns for Year 2 at TPC Toronto’s Osprey Valley North course.
Ryan Fox won in a playoff last year at 18-under par, surviving runs by Sam Burns and Cameron Young on Sunday. The course played to an average of 1.25 strokes under par, with a sizable birdie rate (22.7 percent) despite the lack of par 5s. This puts a premium on par-4 scoring and birdie rates.
Advertisement
RELATED: RBC Canadian Open 2026: The disrespect for Aaron Rai is out of control
This par-70 track favored the longer hitters last year, and I’ll be looking to leverage that same archetype this year. I do think shorter hitters can compete here, but in terms of constructing an outright betting card, I’m leaning on plus-distance off the tee.
We also saw a unique distribution of approach shot distances compared to the average PGA Tour venue. On average, approach shots from 150-200 yards make up 39 percent of the second shots in a given week, but last year at TPC Toronto, just 24.9 percent of the approach shots came from that range. We still see a good amount of long approach shots from 200-plus yards, but we also saw a premium on wedge play, with shots from 50-150 up roughly 10 percent compared to an average PGA Tour event.
Advertisement
Here are my favorite plays and fades in each price range for DraftKings lineups for the 2026 RBC Canadian Open:
$9,000+ range Play: Wyndham Clark, $9,700
Wyndham Clark continued his strong recent play with a solo third-place finish last week at Muirfield Village. Clark’s approach play is back in line with his 2023 run, and he’s gained strokes in 10 of his past 11 starts, including 2.24 last week at Jack’s place. Clark has also gained strokes putting in four straight starts, something he hasn’t done since the summer of 2024.
Clark is also a premier wedge player, which is especially important for those with plus-distance off the tee this week since a lot of their approach shots will come from inside 150 yards.
Advertisement
Play: Nicolai Hojgaard, $9,100
2275355098
Jared C. Tilton
Nicolai topped my Rabbit Hole model at Betsperts Golf this week. He mashes it off the tee, but he’s taken real strides as a complete golfer this season. He’s finished T-5 or better in three of his 13 starts this season after just three T-5 finishes in 47 PGA Tour starts in 2023 to 2025.
Over the past 12 months and in 2026 alone, Nicolai has been the best golfer in this week’s field on long courses with easy scoring conditions. His best finishes this season include Quail Hollow, Memorial Park and TPC Scottsdale, where the recipe is driver-heavy off the tee.
Advertisement
Fade: Collin Morikawa, $9,900
Collin Morikawa got off to such a hot start in 2026, and he was trending as well as anyone in the world heading into The Players. Then things went sideways. His showings at Augusta (T-7) and Harbour Town (T-4), while less than 100 percent healthy, were impressive, but he’s fizzled since.
I believe he’s expecting his first child soon, which may have been part of why he skipped the Memorial, a place where he’s thrived at over the years. I just can’t justify clicking on him in any meaningful way this week given the unknowns in what’s likely nothing more than a Shinnecock Hills tune-up for Morikawa.
Sign up for the industry’s leading data tool to make golf stats easy to decipher—head to BetspertsGolf.com now and get access to The Rabbit Hole for only $10 for your first month. Use promo code GD10 at sign up for this amazing deal! $8,000+ range Play: Kristoffer Reitan, $8,800
2279542456
NurPhoto
Advertisement
After a slow start to the 2026 season, Kristoffer Reitan has clearly found his footing on the PGA Tour. He’s been gaining strokes throughout the bag for the better part of two months now, playing his best golf on long courses against the best fields.
Reitan’s T-6 at last week’s Memorial was another example of his staying power. He got off to a slow start on Thursday, but he gained at least 2.6 strokes ball-striking in each of the final three rounds. He’s carrying top-tier form into this week’s event, and he’s fit for what TPC Toronto demands.
Watch Read The Line’s Joe Idone and John Haslbauer break down Aaron Rai’s disrespectful odds at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open:
Watch the full breakdown of the 2026 RBC Canadian Open here.
Advertisement
Play: Alex Fitzpatrick, $8,700
2279616394
Ben Jared
Form is fickle, but when a course setup fits a golfer who’s riding high, we’re getting too cute if we’re trying to time the exit correctly. Instead, let’s just ride the wave. Alex Fitzpatrick is on quite the heater right now, with last week’s T-6 at Memorial making it six T-10 or better finishes in his past seven starts worldwide.
Matt’s little brother has made 12 starts in 2026, finishing among the top 25 in nine of them, including two wins. His play at Doral, Quail Hollow and Muirfield Village has proven that this is far beyond just a feel-good story: Alex can really play. He’s gaining off the tee with distance and accuracy, and he’s flashed a very high ceiling with his approach play. Overall, Alex ranks fifth in this week’s field in SG/tee to green over the past 24 rounds.
Advertisement
Fade: Harry Hall, $8,400
I don’t mind Harry Hall this week, but he’s someone who doesn’t typically model that well for me because his good weeks are often reliant on borderline unsustainable putting performances. Overall, he’s played well on easier scoring setups like TPC Toronto, but he’s struggled off the tee of late, and he’s not a good enough iron player to make up for it unless he’s gaining two-plus strokes per round on the greens. Considering how loaded the mid to high $8,000 range is this week, Hall is an easy fade for me.
$7,000+ range Play: Zach Bauchou, $7,300
2278112443
Icon Sportswire
Advertisement
Zach Bauchou checks a lot of boxes for me this week. His recent tee-to-green form is excellent, with only Aaron Rai and Kristoffer Reitan topping Bauchou’s +1.71 strokes gained per round average over the past 12 rounds. He gains off the tee with accuracy, but his approach play is solid, and he gives himself a lot of birdie looks regardless of the approach distance. Looking at 2026 data only, Bauchou ranks seventh in this week’s field in SG/total on long courses with easy scoring conditions.
RELATED: U.S. Open 2026 picks: Our 13 best bets for Shinnecock Hills
$6,000+ range Play: Tom Hoge, $6,600
2279857051
Mike Mulholland
Advertisement
There are a handful of golfers who I like right there at $7,000, like Austin Eckroat and Jackson Suber, but if we’re going down a bit into the sub-$7,000 range, it’s hard to ignore Tommy Tables down here at $6,600.
Overall, 2026 has been a tough year for Hoge, but he remains a premier flusher and has more approach game ceiling than the others surrounding him in this price tier. He popped a few weeks ago at Craig Ranch with a T-6 finish, his best of the year, and that’s similarly a long track that requires a lot of birdies to contend.
Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan.