The 2025 Chargers were on the “struggle bus” after early OL losses of Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater. The offense then prioritized protecting Justin Herbert by adopting a run-heavy approach, but he still got beaten up. Jim Harbaugh’s squad eventually sputtered to a halt, resulting in a bottom-half passing unit (18th) and a dead-last run-blocking unit per PFF (37.7 grade).
The Chargers made a massive personnel move during the offseason by firing Greg Roman and replacing him with Mike McDaniel, who was once seen as a mad scientist for engineering the offensive attack. His motion-heavy scheme has the promise of creating space for the team’s plentiful weapons to manifest explosive outcomes. For a QB of Justin Herbert‘s caliber, this is an oasis in the desert.
Our focus is the passing game and the distribution of targets, including 122 vacant ones, primarily in the intermediate areas of the field. With two star tackles returning to the fold, it is easy to dream of nothing but positive regression for this unit.
The question for 2026 is simple: How will McDaniel distribute this target pie, and can these pass-catchers actually command elite volume, or will a diluted distribution cap their fantasy ceiling?
1. The Macro View: Projecting the 2026 Passing Game
Under Mike McDaniel’s direction, this offense should look wildly different. We can expect every skill-position player to benefit from this highly efficient passing design that marries play-action concepts with a chess-like manipulation of opposing defenses through heavy pre-snap motion.
My projection for the 2026 Chargers’ passing offense is as follows:
- Pass Attempts: 602
- Completions: 400
- Passing Yards: 4,635
- Passing TDs: 29
602 attempts would put the Chargers around the top-5 teams for passing attempts, and this may feel lofty. However, the efficiency boost from McDaniel’s wide-zone play-action sequencing—which isolates linebackers and opens massive horizontal and vertical windows in the middle of the field—should elevate the per-target value of every weapon in this offense while keeping the offense on the field for more opportunities.
This breakdown of potential targets will include an optimistic view and a critical one. The optimism is how I really feel, but the critical view is how the upside could fall apart. Let’s look at the intersection between the Chargers’ infrastructure and each player’s capability to project a future look at the passing game.
2. The Targets: Individual Player Breakdowns
2026 Projected Passing Pie: 602 Pass Attempts
Ladd McConkey: The Slot/Flanker Alpha
- Expected Scheme Fit: Slot/Z “Chess Piece”
- 2026 Projection: 135 Tgts | 22.5% Tgt Share | 91 Recs | 1,201 Rec Yds | 7 TDs | 252 FPts
McConkey’s sophomore slump was surely disappointing, given the expectations built on his rookie campaign. His efficiency cratered, and I blame three specific things: the OL, McConkey’s usage, and Keenan Allen. In 2025, his receptions dropped from 82 to 66, his yardage collapsed by 31.3% (from 1,149 to 789), and his Yards Per Route Run (YPRR) fell off a cliff from 2.59 to 1.40. His catchable target rate also dropped to 67.0% due to constant pressure in Herbert’s face.
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Difference |
| Receptions | 82 | 66 | -16 |
| Receiving Yards | 1149 | 789 | -360 |
| TDs | 7 | 6 | -1 |
| YPRR | 2.59 | 1.4 | -1.19 |
| EPA Per Target | 0.577 | 0.068 | -0.509 |
| Explosive Play Rate | 13.4% | 7.5% | -5.9% |
| Catchable Target Rate | 79.5% | 67.0% | -12.5% |
The Optimism: McConkey’s technical route-running capability still demands special defensive attention; he simply needs an infrastructure that does not ask him to win static, contested matchups on long-developing routes. Mike McDaniel is probably salivating at the opportunity to employ his skill set.
If I am right, we should see much more of this:
Ladd McConkey pic.twitter.com/rDBjiZjRtk
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 17, 2025
With a higher rate of pre-snap motion, McConkey should enjoy more free releases, shifting him dynamically into positive matchups. The return of Alt and Slater ensures Herbert will have a clean pocket, allowing McConkey to exploit the intermediate middle of the field. McConkey could be weaponized by McDaniel similarly to Jaylen Waddle’s usage in Miami.
The Critique: We must critically evaluate McConkey’s physical limitations (6’0”, 186 lbs). There is a legitimate concern, one shared by the Ballers, of increased heavy personnel usage. While McDaniel’s use of 12-personnel packages was low compared to the league (~10%), it is almost double Greg Roman’s usage over the last few years. 12-personnel looks are likely going to favor Quentin Johnston and Tre Harris as the bigger bodies in the WR corps to pair with Njoku and Gadsden. McConkey’s opportunities could suffer if these 12-personnel looks have higher-than-expected success.
Quentin Johnston: The Vertical Threat
- Expected Scheme Fit: Traditional “X”
- 2026 Projection: 93 Tgts | 15.5% Tgt Share | 56 Recs| 818 Rec Yds | 7 TDs
Johnston is now locked into a fifth year as the Chargers executed the option in late April. They seem to believe in his steady upward trajectory despite the early career struggles with drops. We saw a glimpse into what he can be through the first four weeks of last season.
The Optimism: If you share the critical view of Ladd McConkey, you should be buying Quge. At 6’4″ and 215 lbs, Johnston possesses the raw physical tools and explosive linear speed that McDaniel loves to exploit in the deep third of the field. In this new offense, McDaniel will use deep play-action crossers and post-seam concepts to let Johnston run into open grass, maximizing his natural vertical ability and generating massive yards-after-catch (YAC) chunks against isolated single-high safeties.
The Critique: Johnston’s game has some technical flaws. The 2025 film shows that he remains a body-catcher and, statistically, struggles to elevate and win at the catch point (contested catch rate under 54.5%). Johnston hasn’t developed a complete route tree yet, though he has steadily improved over his three seasons in the league. If he experiences any regression in his development, his target volume will remain highly volatile.
Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
Tre’ Harris: The “Elite” WR3
- Expected Scheme Fit: Intermediate Possession WR
- 2026 Projection: 69 Targets | 11.5% Tgt Share | 48 Recs | 518 Rec Yds | 2 TDs | 112 Fpts
The 55th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft spent his rookie year largely flying under the radar. He recorded a modest 30-324-1 receiving line on 43 targets in 17 games (10 starts). However, Jim Harbaugh raised eyebrows at the start of OTAs, declaring that Johnston, McConkey, and Harris have “clearly been our top three receivers” and have looked “elite” in the early phases of the offseason program.
Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh on WR Quentin Johnston: “Quentin Johnston, Tre’ Harris, Ladd McConkey have clearly been top three receivers. They all have looked elite in phases 1 and 2.”
— Alex Insdorf (@alexinsdorf99) May 27, 2026
The Optimism: Harris earned his snaps as a rookie because of his physical blocking ability (6’2″, 205 lbs), which is a non-negotiable trait in a McDaniel wide-zone run scheme. But he flashed high efficiency when targeted, posting a 69.8% catch rate and 7.5 Yards Per Target (YPT).
Assuming Keenan Allen‘s intermediate targets remain completely vacated, Harris has the perfect build to occupy the “dirty work” WR3 role—winning on slant and drag routes. He should be able to exploit these single-coverage, high-leverage opportunities while opposing defenses focus their safety help on McConkey and Johnston.
The Critique: Despite the coaching praise, Harris was targeted on just 15.7% of his routes in 2025 (TPRR), ranking 76th out of 109 qualified receivers in Yards Per Route Run (1.22). He simply did not demand targets at a high rate.
Furthermore, rookie speedster Brenen Thompson and veteran KeAndre Lambert-Smith are lingering on the depth chart. If Harris cannot transition from a utility run-blocking receiver into a consistent route separator, his snap count may remain high while his target-earning capability remains disappointingly low. This scenario makes him all but unusable in fantasy.
David Njoku & Oronde Gadsden II: The Twin-Engine Seam-Stretchers
- David Njoku 2026 Projection: 60 Targets | 39 Receptions | 414 Receiving Yards | 2 TDs
- Oronde Gadsden II 2026 Projection: 66 Targets | 47 Receptions | 602 Receiving Yards | 4 TDs
- Projected Combined TE Target Share: 21.7% (Njoku 10.6% | Gadsden 11.1%)
Following the 2026 NFL Draft, the Chargers added veteran David Njoku to a one-year, $8 million deal. Obviously, this move clouds the outlook for sophomore breakout candidate Oronde Gadsden II. Gadsden flashed game-breaking efficiency in weeks 6-9 last season, averaging a crazy 17.9 fantasy points per game. Njoku’s addition may be a good thing for real football, but for fantasy, there should be concern for the fantasy upside of either player.
The Optimism: McDaniel’s scheme has historically thrived when using athletic, flex-capable TEs who can stretch the seam. Gadsden is that guy if the Chargers would just develop this unique hybrid weapon (6’5″, 230+ lbs) with WR route-running capability. Perhaps this is part of the long-term development plan for Gadsden to become a complete TE. Njoku brings veteran experience, including intermediate spacing and good, physical contested-catch capability in the red zone. With all that said, my real hope is that McDaniel gets Gadsden more opportunities like this:
Every catch from Oronde Gadsden II’s 164-yard game pic.twitter.com/pGfzgdKkU6
— Tino ⚡️ (@TinoFromTheQ) March 19, 2026
Together, they allow McDaniel to run heavy 12-personnel formations that functionally operate with the spacing of 11-personnel. At a minimum, this is a boost to Herbert. The play-action wide-zone tracks will isolate linebackers, giving him two big-bodied weapons to work the seam and middle of the field.
The Critique: The single biggest hurdle to fantasy success is target division, as alluded to above. Njoku was not signed to an $8 million deal to play a secondary role, and Gadsden is still a developmental blocker whose early-down snaps are far from guaranteed without becoming a run-blocking asset. While there is upside in opportunity volume if 12 personnel become a central part of this offense, these two will likely cannibalize each other.
Omarion Hampton: The Dynamic Wide-Zone Engine
- 2026 Projection: 60 Targets | 48 Receptions | 380 Receiving Yards | 2 TDs
- Projected Target Share: 11.5%
Drafted 22nd overall in 2025, Hampton’s rookie campaign was a frustrating, injury-plagued roller coaster. Forced into a heavy workload in Week 1, he flashed absolute brilliance—highlighted by an explosive, 165-yard performance against the Giants in Week 4—before fracturing his left ankle and missing six games. In nine games, he rushed for 545 yards and caught 24 passes for 192 yards.
The Optimism: Is there a potential upside of De’Von Achane-level volume? When healthy, Hampton appears to be an elite, model-certified workhorse (6’0”, 221 lbs, 4.46 40-yard dash). In his first four games of 2025, Hampton averaged 17 touches and 95 total yards as the RB13 in fantasy.
A 7.4% explosive run rate and a 10.1% target share, which could both increase in McDaniel’s system, feel like fantasy gold. McDaniel’s outside-zone system will expand on Hampton’s pass-catching ability via designed screen packages, angle, and wheel routes out of the backfield, giving him an incredibly high-value receiving floor. He may not achieve Achane-level targets, but I expect an uptick in RB targets by Herbert for the first time since Austin Ekeler’s departure.
The Critique: The elephant in the room is Hampton’s medical history. The left ankle he fractured in 2025 is the same ankle he broke back in high school, raising severe long-term durability questions.
McDaniel’s systems are notoriously brutal on RBs, frequently relying on a fast-paced, multi-back rotation (such as the Achane/Raheem Mostert model) to preserve players. If Hampton suffers even a minor ankle tweak, the coaching staff may hastily pivot to a committee, completely vaporizing his projected bell-cow volume and leaving fantasy managers holding the bag.
3. 2026 Chargers Target Projection Summary
4. Fantasy Strategy & Verdict
Ladd McConkey (PPR Smash-Buy): McConkey’s price is currently suppressed in all formats due to his 2025 regression. If he commands even 80% of our projected target share, he is a locked-in WR2 with low-end WR1 upside in PPR formats. His ability to win in space under McDaniel is the single most exciting bounce-back narrative of the 2026 Chargers. Draft him aggressively at his current ADP, and dynasty managers should see if current McConkey owners fear the potential uptick in 12-personnel.
Quentin Johnston (McConkey Pivot): Johnston’s flaws make him a somewhat risky gamble, but if the heavy-personnel concerns come to fruition, Quge will have a snap advantage over McConkey. Despite this risk, bet on the big-play potential. Remember, Johnston has steadily improved every season. Let your league-mates pay the higher price for McConkey and wait for McDaniel’s scheme to translate to a pivot payoff.
Tre’ Harris (Late-Round Dart Throw): Harris is an outstanding end-of-bench stash in deeper dynasty leagues. Jim Harbaugh’s glowing praise is real, and his exceptional run-blocking should continue to earn him snaps. If he can turn those snaps into effective separation, he will easily outperform his WR71 positional ranking.
The TE Tandem (Njoku as Red-Zone Streamer / Gadsden as Dynasty Stash): Rather than a consolidated high-volume TE option, we are looking at a timeshare. Njoku is a TD-dependent TE2 in redraft. However, Gadsden is the real long-term prize. His WR-like athletic traits and McDaniel’s scheme alignment make him a premier dynasty stash who is poised for a massive 2027 breakout, assuming Njoku moves on as his one-year deal expires.
Omarion Hampton (High-Risk, High-Reward RB2): Hampton has overall RB1 talent, but his recurring ankle issues are a minor risk. With that said, no risk, no biscuit! As RB9 in redraft, he is a no-brainer selection as a fantasy asset, having seen how McDaniel has used RBs as part of his dynamic offenses.