Chris Vasile
• Betting Analyst
13+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jun 19, 2026 , 10:56 AM ET
• 4 min read
USA winning — in a high-scoring affair — is what our experts are aligned on for today’s match vs. Australia.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Folarin Balogun of the U.S. celebrates scoring a goal with Weston McKennie.
After a dominant win in their World Cup opener, USA look to stay hot in another winnable match against Australia.
To help you fill out your wagers for this match, we’ve polled our soccer experts for their favorite plays in this afternoon’s game.
Here are our USA vs. Australia expert picks, with the action kicking off at 3 p.m. ET, broadcast on FOX.
USA vs Australia expert picks for today
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Chris Vasile’s expert pick: Over 2.5 goals – YES
Kalshi probability: 49%
American odds: +104
The United States scored four times against Paraguay and now faces an Australian side that should offer more resistance, but that doesn’t necessarily point to a lower-scoring game.
The Americans have failed to keep a clean sheet in eight of their last nine matches, with seven of those contests clearing 2.5 goals.
Australia has enough pace and attacking quality to contribute on the counterattack, while the U.S. continues to create chances in bunches.
With first place in Group D carrying significant travel advantages deeper into the tournament, expect both teams to push for all three points.
Jason Ence’s expert pick: Folarin Balogun to score goal – YES
Kalshi probability: 41%
American odds: +144
One could be forgiven for thinking that Christian Pulisic officially being ruled as questionable for this match means Folarin Balogun’s chances of scoring go down drastically. However, it was Malik Tillman who was linking up with him the most vs. Paraguay, accounting for five passes in 72 minutes — compared to just two from Pulisic in 45 minutes.
Balogun’s 56 offers to receive the ball ranked second only to Weston McKennie. Of those, 25 came via movements between defenders, while another 22 came via runs behind the defense.
He represents one of the most active strikers the USMNT has ever fielded, which is why I’ll gladly back him to score again.
Sam Farley’s expert pick: USA to win – YES
Kalshi probability: 62%
American odds: -163
We’re not getting huge odds, but it’s hard to look behind the UMSNT winning this. The speed they showed in attacking transitions in their opener was impressive, and the fullbacks can be dangerous.
Australia, despite winning against Turkey, rode their luck: They trailed in nearly every statistic (besides, obviously, goals) but will struggle against an American team that looked incredibly well-balanced.
James Eastham’s expert pick: Over 2.5 goals – YES
Kalshi probability: 49%
American odds: +104
The opening games showed that USA and Australia are set up to produce front-foot soccer. USA were offensively outstanding in demolishing Paraguay 4-1, while Australia attacked with vigor, guile, and a clinical edge to overcome the odds and defeat Turkey 2-0.
Top spot in the group is at play here, and both teams will take defensive risks to secure the three points. Expect an open, exciting encounter, and at least three goals.
More USA vs Australia picks
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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