Chris Vasile
• Betting Analyst
13+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jun 27, 2026 , 07:55 PM ET
• 4 min read
Canada should have enough quality to end South Africa’s Cinderella run, but this Round of 32 clash has grind written all over it.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Canada forward Cyle Larin (9) looks on.
For two nations, the World Cup dream lives on at least one more day, but the margin for error has vanished after both teams finished as runners-up in their respective groups.
My South Africa vs. Canada predictions expect the Canadians to lean on their tournament-tested attack and end South Africa’s resurgence when these two sides meet in the Round of 32 at Los Angeles Stadium on Sunday, June 28, with kickoff set for 3 p.m. ET on FOX. Canada are around -140 favorites after going 1-1-1 in group play. South Africa are +425 underdogs.
Alphonso Davies will reportedly be making his 2026 World Cup debut, and Canada have the chance creation, the frontline, and the big-game edge, but South Africa’s compact shape and sudden belief should make this more stressful than comfortable.
Which is why my World Cup picks prefer to back the total.
Who will win Canada vs South Africa: Canada (-143)
Canada have earned favorite status through the group stage, and I think they justify it here.
South Africa deserve credit for bouncing back after their disastrous opener against Mexico, but I’m not convinced one strong performance suddenly changes who this team is. They still lack the overall quality Canada possess across the pitch, particularly in midfield and the attacking third.
While South Africa’s unpredictable, free-flowing style can create awkward moments, Canada have consistently shown they can generate chances regardless of the opponent. If you had offered Canada a Round of 32 matchup against South Africa before the tournament began, they would have accepted it without hesitation.
The Canadians are deservedly favored to advance, and I’m happy to back them to get the job done in 90 minutes.
Playable to -155.
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TOp pick
Canada vs South Africa Over/Under pick: Under 2.5 (-154)
My favorite wager in this matchup is the Under.
Knockout matches are often defined by caution rather than chaos, and I expect both sides to approach this one carefully, knowing a single mistake could end their World Cup.
South Africa’s resurgence has shortened its odds, but it hasn’t changed the way Bafana Bafana have been winning matches. Six of their last seven games have stayed Under 2.5 goals, including all three group-stage fixtures, with their success built on staying compact and capitalizing on limited opportunities.
Canada have become more dangerous in attack as the tournament has progressed, but this isn’t a team that typically gets dragged into shootouts. Before their offensive explosion over the final two group matches, 10 of Canada’s previous 11 contests also finished with two goals or fewer.
Canada should dominate the ball, but that’s exactly the type of match South Africa wants. Bafana Bafana are comfortable defending for long stretches before breaking quickly on the counter, making sustained scoring chances difficult to come by.
Playable to -160.
Canada vs South Africa projected lineup
Canada (4-4-2): Crepeau; Davies, De Fougerolles, Cornelius, Johnston; Ahmed, Eustaquio, Saliba, Buchanan; Larin, David
South Africa (4-2-3-1): Williams; Modiba, Mbokazi, Okon, Mudau; Mokoena, Mbatha; Appollis, Mofokeng, Maseko; Makgopa
Canada vs South Africa injuries
Canada: Davies (Questionable), Kone (Out).
South Africa: Zwane (Suspended).
Canada vs South Africa weather
The weather will not be a factor as this game will be played in a dome.
Canada vs South Africa odds
| Canada | South Africa | |
|---|---|---|
| -143 | Moneyline | +440 |
| +260 | Draw | +260 |
| Over 2.5 (Odds) | Total | Under 2.5 (+114) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Canada vs South Africa
Check out FIFA’s official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California |
| Date | Sunday, June 28, 2026 |
| Time | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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