Updated:
Jun 28, 2026 , 05:32 PM ET
• 4 min read
Yankees avoid the sweep as Sonny Gray gets overdue regression.
NY Yankees -105
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Paul Goldschmidt (48) bats a one run home run against Detroit Tigers during the first inning at Comerica Park
The Boston Red Sox are short favorites against the New York Yankees on Sunday night, but I’m taking the plus-money side in my Yankees vs Red Sox predictions.
The matchup is good for the Yankees, and I believe they can lean into the motivation angle of not being swept by a rival.
Here are my MLB picks for June 28. Be sure to also read our Sunday Night Baseball prop picks.
Who will win Yankees vs Red Sox today: Yankees (+101)
Sonny Gray’s impressive season seems unsustainable. He’s still a solid pitcher, but he’s outperformed his expectations in a variety of ways this season.
At some point, there will be regression. His actual ERA is over a full run lower than his expected ERA of 3.8. The New York Yankees can provide some of that regression, targeting a barrel rate that’s just average at 7.3%.
Carlos Rodon is not perfect, but his 3.83 xERA, .224 xBA allowed, and 5.8% barrel rate are good enough to deliver here.
I’d play the Yankees to -110.
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Yankees vs Red Sox Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-125)
I’m playing the Over because Gray’s current profile does not support treating him like a shutdown arm. His .300 xBA allowed and 11.0% barrel rate create a real path for the Yankees to bounce back offensively, even without a fully healthy lineup.
Rodon has the better contact profile, but his 12.7% walk rate keeps the Boston Red Sox alive for base traffic.
At 7.5, this number does not require a blowup. It needs one starter to crack and the other offense to contribute. Play to 8.
Chris Hatfield’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 31-28, +5.67 units
- Over/Under bets: 36-25, +15.77 units
Yankees vs Red Sox weather
Winds will be blowing inward at first pitch, but will shift as the game goes on. The 3 mph winds shouldn’t factor too much as the temps dip into the high 60s.
Yankees vs Red Sox odds
- Moneyline: Yankees +100 | Red Sox -118
- Run line: Yankees +1.5 | Red Sox -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Yankees vs Red Sox trend
The New York Yankees have hit the moneyline in 12 of their last 18 away games (+4.80 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Red Sox.
How to watch Yankees vs Red Sox and game info
| Location | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date | Sunday, June 28, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC/Peacock |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Rodon (4-2, 3.70 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Sonny Gray (9-1, 2.95 ERA) |
Yankees vs Red Sox latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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