Quinn Allen
• Betting Analyst
7+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jul 1, 2026 , 10:50 AM ET
• 4 min read
Milwaukee is in line for an offensive explosion.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Brice Turang rounds the bases after hitting a home run against the Reds.
The Cincinnati Reds are +144 underdogs when they visit the Milwaukee Brewers (-150) tonight, with Shane Drohan looking to continue his impressive form.
My Reds vs. Brewers predictions and MLB picks are targeting Drohan to pitch well, while Milwaukee will jump on the struggling Andrew Abbott.
Who will win Reds vs Brewers today: Brewers -1.5 (+134)
Shane Drohan is throwing the baseball well for the Milwaukee Brewers. While his 5.03 FIP over his last two outings doesn’t jump off the page, the underlying metrics suggest he’s in line for another quality start. The left-hander has allowed just 0.96 home runs per nine innings during that span while limiting opponents to a 32.4% hard-hit rate over the last month.
As for Cincinnati Reds starter Andrew Abbott, he owns a 5.34 FIP across his last five outings while allowing 1.98 home runs per nine innings and a 41% hard-hit rate. Across Abbott’s last two starts alone, he has an alarming 6.98 FIP.
Drohan holds the edge, and Milwaukee’s 140 wRC+ over its last six games makes this a favorable matchup.
I’ll play this pick up to -110.
COVERS INTEL: This Brewers lineup has a .227 ISO in the last week, compared to a .142 mark overall this season. That’s a recipe for success against the home run prone Andrew Abbott. Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account 
Reds vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-126)
The Over offers value. I expect Milwaukee to do damage against Andrew Abbott, while Shane Drohan has been capable of allowing a few runs himself. A 4-2 or 5-3 type game before the starters exit is certainly on the table, but the bullpens could push this total even higher.
Milwaukee’s relief corps owns a 5.22 xERA over the last week while walking an alarming 7.43 hitters per nine innings.
Cincinnati’s bullpen hasn’t been much better, posting a 7.96 FIP across its last 20 innings while allowing 2.70 home runs per nine. That’s a dangerous combination against a Brewers lineup swinging the bats well.
I’ll play this pick up to -140.
Quinn Allen’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 32-29, +0.62 units
- Over/Under bets: 34-26, +3.40 units
Reds vs Brewers weather
Conditions at American Family Field should be favorable for hitters tonight. Temperatures will remain warm, starting around 92°F before cooling into the mid-80s, while 13-15 mph winds could give well-hit balls a little extra carry. With virtually no chance of rain, the weather shouldn’t interrupt play and may provide a slight boost to offense.
Reds vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Reds +144 | Brewers -150
- Run line: Reds +1.5 (-138) | Brewers -1.5 (+133)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-122) | Under (+117)
Reds vs Brewers trend
The Brewers have covered the run line in 30 of their last 50 home games for +15.70 units and a 27% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Brewers.
How to watch Reds vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Wednesday, July 1, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Reds starting pitcher | Andrew Abbott (5-4, 3.90 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Shane Drohan (3-2, 3.12 ERA) |
Reds vs Brewers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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