Brad Powers
• Betting Analyst
21+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jul 3, 2026 , 10:35 PM ET
• 4 min read
Oklahoma State may not go from the bottom to the top, but they will show dramatic movement in 2026, per our college football expert.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Oklahoma State’s Drew Mestemaker celebrates after an OSU touchdown during a spring football game.
When discussing the most improved teams in college football, you can look at it from a couple of different angles: most improved in terms of wins from last year, and most improved in terms of power ratings.
In this article, I will discuss my five most improved teams in both win total improvement and upgraded power rating, while also giving you some college football picks to consider.
Most improved teams in college football in 2026
Oklahoma State Over 5.5 wins
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are my most improved team both in my power ratings (I’ve upgraded them 14.5 points), and in my projected season wins, as I have them going from 1-11 to 6-6.
The Cowboys have a new head coach in Eric Morris, who brings 16 transfers from North Texas with him. North Texas had the No. 1 offense in the country last year in both yardage and points, and most of those key players have transferred to Oklahoma State. That includes quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who led the nation in passing a year ago with 4,379 yards.
Running back Caleb Hawkins also transfers in after leading the nation with 25 rushing touchdowns.
Oklahoma State ranked No. 134 in scoring offense last year, averaging just 14.2 points per game. I’m expecting them to double that output this season. If that happens, Oklahoma State can go from a 4-20 record the last two years to bowl eligibility this year.
Virginia Tech Over 6.5 wins
I’ve upgraded the Virginia Tech Hokies power rating by 11.5 points this offseason. That means I would favor Virginia Tech by 11.5 over last year’s Virginia Tech team. I have Virginia Tech projected to go 7-5 after they went just 3-9 a year ago.
While I don’t think James Franklin is a Top 10 coach in college football, I do think he’s a great fit for Virginia Tech. He has already upgraded Virginia Tech’s recruiting profile overnight. Last year’s Virginia Tech team only had 17 four-star players on their entire roster. In seven months on the job, Franklin has already gotten 21 four-star players to sign or commit to Virginia Tech.
The Hokies bring back 13 starters from last year’s team and rank No. 4 in Bill Connelly’s returning production. Franklin brought with him 12 transfers from Penn State with at least six of them expected to start, led by quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer.
Also notable is last year’s head coach Brent Pry agreed to stay on as the defensive coordinator as he worked with James Franklin most of his career. That’s unprecedented continuity in college football today with a coaching change.
UCLA Over 5.5 wins
There might not be a bigger coaching upgrade this season than new UCLA Bruins head coach Bob Chesney compared to former coach DeShaun Foster.
While Chesney is not a big name, he has consistently won at every level he has coached. That includes DII Assumption, FCS Holy Cross, and the last two years at James Madison, highlighted by leading the Dukes to the CFP last year.
He inherits a solid situation, as UCLA returns 21 players on their roster who were full-time FBS starters last season, led by QB Nico Iamaleava. Chesney brings with him eight James Madison players who were full-time starters last year. The Bruins rank No. 9 in Bill Connelly’s returning production.
Chesney’s teams have shown remarkable consistency, as he has won at least six games in 14 of his 15 full seasons as head coach (excluding the shortened 2020 COVID season).
I’ve upgraded UCLA’s power rating 8.5 points, and I think they double last year’s win total of three wins and reach bowl eligibility.
Air Force Over 6.5 wins
The Air Force Falcons only went 4-8 a year ago as they battled through injuries and youth. I’m expecting this year to be a different story as the Falcons rank No. 1 on Phil Steele’s experience chart.
Air Force brings back quarterback Liam Szarka, who became the first QB in Air Force history to have five straight 100+ yard rushing games. Szarka was also the first QB in the FBS since Lamar Jackson to have three straight 200+ passing-yard and 100+ rushing-yard games.
Air Force’s young defense improved as the season went on last year. In the first six games, the Falcons allowed 40 points per game and 497 yards per game (both dead-last in FBS). However, in the last six games, the Falcons only allowed 21 ppg and 350 ypg (both Top 50).
I’ve upgraded Air Force’s power rating by 5.5 points. When you plug that upgraded power rating into their schedule, my ratings have the Falcons winning eight games. That’s double what they won a year ago and worthy of a best bet at Over 6.5.
Liberty to make the CFP
While the Liberty Flames did not make my Top 10 in terms of a power rating upgrade (I upgraded them five points), I have them going from 4-8 last season to 9-3 this year. After the opening game at James Madison (Liberty is currently a TD underdog), the Flames could be favored in their final 11 games.
Liberty is coming off their first losing season in 20 years. They were better than their record as they lost three straight games in overtime to end the season. The Flames out-gained their opponents by 67 yards per game in conference play last year. That was the best mark in C-USA despite their 3-5 conference record.
The betting markets are all over this improvement, as Liberty is the preseason favorite in C-USA and their win total is 8.5. Earlier this offseason, I recommending betting them +15000 to make the CFP and I still lean that way at +12000. There’s a decent chance Liberty might have the best record of any Group of Six team this year.
Note teams like Syracuse (+11.0 points) and LSU (+9.0 points) were among the biggest upgrades in my power ratings from last season. However, I only see them winning 1-2 more games than they did a season ago because of difficult schedules.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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