Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway Odds: UFC 329 Odds Moving

Trevor Knapp
• Betting Analyst

7+ years betting experience

Updated:
Jul 7, 2026 , 10:06 PM ET

• 4 min read

Conor McGregor returns to the Octagon for the first time in five years to face Max Holloway. The odds favor Holloway to win, but McGregor is picking up steam as his odds to win the rematch have shortened.

The Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway odds for their rematch at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, July 11, are on the move ahead of fight week.

McGregor returns to the Octagon when he steps in against Holloway in the main event for UFC 329. It’s a strong fight card that also features Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint-Denis.

After a lengthy layoff, the early UFC 329 odds pegged the 37-year-old McGregor as a considerable underdog. Those odds are shifting (quickly) in his favor, as he’s down to +175 odds to win, with Holloway a -230 betting favorite.

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway odds

Market
	Max Holloway	Conor McGregor
To win outright	-230	+175
2.5 rounds	Over -105	Under -125
Will the fight go the distance?	Yes +305	No -500

Odds as of 7-7.

Max Holloway and Conor McGregor will headline UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11.

The pair last faced off on August 17, 2013, as part of the preliminary card ahead of a UFC Fight Night main-event bout between Chael Sonnen and Mauricio Rua. That is to say, a lot has changed.

McGregor won by unanimous decision, marking Holloway’s third loss in his first 10 UFC fights. Meanwhile, it marked McGregor’s 10th consecutive victory, a streak that would ultimately extend to 15 before losing to Nate Diaz in 2016 — a loss he would avenge months later.

“Notorious” last stepped foot in the Octagon in 2021, fighting Dustin Poirier in losing efforts in UFC 257 and UFC 264. He was expected to return in 2024 against Michael Chandler, in a blow-off from The Ultimate Fighter 31, where both served as opposing coaches, but a broken toe was cited as the reason for its ultimate cancellation.

CONOR McGREGOR vs MAX HOLLOWAY 2

LIVE JULY 11 at 9pmET on @ParamountPlus pic.twitter.com/rklosAs6uv

— UFC (@ufc) July 4, 2026

Holloway has been more active, appearing in eight UFC fights since McGregor’s last, going 5-3 in that stretch. Most recently, Holloway lost by unanimous decision to Charles Oliveira at UFC 326 on March 7, 2026.

Nevertheless, McGregor’s rust and extended absence related to injuries, various legal issues, and a lengthy suspension for missing drug tests are all likely mitigating factors when books are projecting the odds for this fight. 

Holloway hasn’t been a world-beater, but he’s been present, and he is being given a substantial edge to get his win back from McGregor nearly 13 years later.

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Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway odds movement

Max Holloway opened at -400 on the moneyline against Conor McGregor about a month ago. As of Thursday, July 2, those odds have dropped to -230, while McGregor is listed at +175 for the outright upset. A winning $10 bet on McGregor would return a profit of $17.50.

This was often the case during McGregor’s prime — and is now the case with boxer/influencer Jake Paul. The heavy public favorite draws the vast majority of the betting action to help shorten their odds — and raise the odds for their opponent.

I’d continue to wait out this market, and would expect to get the best odds on Holloway to win come fight night.

We’re now inside of two weeks for Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway at UFC 329 and A LOT of money is coming in on McGregor! pic.twitter.com/VEL7SEhZb6

— Joe Osborne (@JTFOz) June 29, 2026

What sportsbooks are saying about Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway

Alex Rella, the Trading Manager at BetMGM, helped to explain why Max Holloway is the sizable favorite.

“Conor McGregor in his prime was truly awesome, but he hasn’t fought since 2021.

Who knows what version of Conor is going to show up? On the other hand, Max Holloway has never stopped being an elite fighter. 

There are few fighters in the world that can beat Max in a straight-up striking battle.” – Alex Rella, Trading Manager, BetMGM

Who will win Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway?

“Conor McGregor is 1-3 in his last four UFC fights. The last time we saw him, his leg literally snapped in half in a fight he was on his way to losing against Dustin Poirier.

While envisioning an upset win over Max Holloway is fun, it’s also delusional. Coming off a five-year layoff, we shouldn’t expect an improved version of McGregor at 37 years old. He won’t be able to compete with the striking volume and pace of Holloway, who’s a year removed from a one-sided victory over Poirier.

The longer the fight goes, the worse McGregor will look. Expect a Holloway TKO victory.” – via Joe Osborne

Max Holloway is an awful opponent for Conor McGregor’s return fight. pic.twitter.com/xbtFVxWcGO

— Joe Osborne (@JTFOz) May 19, 2026