Updated:
Aug 16, 2026 , 06:06 AM ET
• 4 min read
See why our MLB expert is backing the Padres to topple Tanner Bibee and the Guardians on Sunday afternoon.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. San Diego Padres right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (23) is congratulated by center fielder Jackson Merrill (3) after hitting a solo home run.
We’ve got a full Sunday slate of MLB action to parse through, and whether you’re looking to parlay every game or are searching for one best bet to make, my MLB moneyline picks are here to help.
See why my MLB picks for August 16 are topped by the San Diego Padres.
MLB moneyline picks for August 16
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 8-16.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for August 16
Orioles vs Rays: Rays (-144)
Rays win probability: 59%
Rays SP Freddy Peralta rebounded with a quality start vs. the A’s after getting roughed up by the Rockies at Coors Field in his Tampa debut.
Orioles SP Trevor Rogers coughed up seven earned runs over 3 2/3 innings in his lone 2026 outing vs. the Rays, who are swinging it as well as anyone right now (third in OPS in August).
Diamondbacks vs Braves: Diamondbacks (+122)
Diamondbacks win probability: 45%
I’m more interested in playing the Over 8.5 in a battle of two mediocre starters with xERAs above 4.00, but I’ll give the nod to the Diamondbacks. Their lineup has simply been better in August, ranking fifth in OPS vs. the Braves’ 11th.
Red Sox vs Pirates: Red Sox (+100)
Red Sox win probability: 50%
Both bullpens should get plenty of work in, with Paul Skenes getting scratched late by the Pirates and Patrick Sandoval toeing the rubber for the Red Sox. Each relief corps is Top 5 by xERA in August, so the Under is worth a look.
The lineups will make the difference for moneyline bettors. Boston is second in OPS this month, while Pittsburgh is 21st.
Yankees vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays (-108)
Blue Jays win probability: 52%
Both the Yankees and the Blue Jays are struggling at the dish right now, but only one team has a Cy Young odds candidate on the hill, and that’s Toronto and Dylan Cease.
The Jays also have the bullpen advantage based on August xERA, so roll with the home side.
White Sox vs Tigers: White Sox (+104)
White Sox win probability: 49%
This is a tough one, but Chicago gets the call behind the arm of Sean Burke. He’s authored a 2.47 FIP over his last 10 starts.
Marlins vs Reds: Marlins (-113)
Marlins win probability: 53%
The gulf in xERA between Eury Perez (3.65) vs. Nick Lodolo (6.18) is too large to ignore. Back the Marlins in a battle of two fairly punchless offenses.
Padres vs Guardians: Padres (-104)
Padres win probability: 51%
Tanner Bibee has a 6.00 ERA through two starts in August, and the Padres are batting .423 against him as a team all-time (65 at-bats). Casey Mize exits his first quality start in a San Diego uniform, and has both a terrific bullpen and a red-hot offense to back him up.
Nationals vs Mets: Mets (-156)
Mets win probability: 61%
Jake Irvin’s ERA is 5.79 and climbing because teams are barreling him up early and often (third percentile). The Mets (sixth in barrel rate) will tee off on him and Washington’s dismal bullpen, which ranks dead-last by xERA this month.
Phillies vs Twins: Phillies (-104)
Phillies win probability: 51%
Both Andrew Painter and Dean Kremer are due for some positive regression based on xERA, but I don’t like Kremer’s chances on Sunday afternoon. He faces a Phillies lineup that’s Top 10 in both OPS in fewest Ks in August, and Kremer is reliant on fanning the opposition.
Cardinals vs Cubs: Cubs (-156)
Cubs win probability: 61%
I don’t like the starting pitching matchup for the Cubs given Edward Cabrera’s issues with hard-hit balls, but Chicago’s got the edge in August OPS (sixth vs. 12th) as well as bullpen xERA (13th vs. 23rd).
Rockies vs Giants: Giants (-122)
Giants win probability: 55%
The Giants’ lineup is nothing to write home about, but they should figure out Gabriel Hughes seeing him for the second time this season. Hughes sports an 11.57 ERA in August.
Rangers vs A’s: Rangers (-127)
Rangers win probability: 56%
Jacob Lopez has been brutal for the A’s this season, and the Rangers are seventh in OPS vs. lefties in 2026. Texas will also get a crack at the A’s bullpen, which ranks 27th in xERA this month.
Royals vs Angels: Royals (-117)
Royals win probability: 54%
Ryan Johnson’s Baseball Savant page is bluer than a Andrew Dice Clay standup routine, and the Angels are dead-last by OPS this month. Fade!
Brewers vs Dodgers: Brewers (+144)
Brewers win probability: 41%
The Dodgers’ lineup is in rough shape right now (17th by OPS this month), and Logan Henderson and his 96th percentile K-rate and walk-rate is not what the doctor ordered.
Back the Brewers and their third-ranked bullpen by xERA in August to lock down an upset win over Tarik Skubal.
Mariners vs Astros: Astros (-127)
Astros win probability: 56%
I think both Bryan Woo and Hunter Brown will have their way with the offenses early. However, the Astros have a huge edge in the bullpen battle (sixth vs. 24th in xERA in August) and at the plate (seventh in OPS vs. 28th).
Roll with the home team in the nightcap.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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