Updated:
Aug 17, 2026 , 03:01 PM ET
• 4 min read
Our home run picks for Monday feature Shohei Ohtani, Matt Olson, and Miguel Vargas.
A new week is here, and I’m ready to kick it off with three of my favorite home run props and predictions for tonight’s MLB slate, highlighted by Shohei Ohtani and Matt Olson.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Monday, Aug. 17.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Shohei Ohtani |
+197 |
 Matt Olson |
+291 |
 Miguel Vargas |
+344 |
| 💲Today’s HR parlay | +5056 |
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Home run pick: Shohei Ohtani (+197)
Run it back! After he failed us on Sunday, Shohei Ohtani finds himself in another great spot on Monday in Coors, taking on Colorado Rockies seasoned sophomore Tomoyuki Sugano.
The Los Angeles Dodgers superstar owns the No. 1 rating on Batters-Box, where he covers 100% of Sugano’s pitch mix. On top of that, across 150 elite ratings on the road over the last three seasons, Ohtani has left the yard 26% of the time.
Sugano has struggled against left-handed hitters, allowing 2.30 HR/9 and a 14% barrel rate against his last 60 faced. Those hitters have posted a .310 xBA and .638 xSLG during that stretch.
With this matchup taking place in Coors, the +197 price tag is not THAT awful, but I would not take this down much further. Find a boost.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNLA, COLR
Home run pick: Matt Olson (+291)
Atlanta Braves slugger Matt Olson has been generating a ton of hard contact and barrels over his last few games. He’s coming off a home run on Sunday, but his matchup against Minnesota Twins right-hander Bailey Ober this evening might be even better.
Against the last 30 left-handed hitters he has faced, Ober is allowing a 43.3% hard-hit rate, 13.3% barrel rate, and 70% elevation rate. Those lefties own a .355 xBA, .680 xSLG, and .363 xwOBA.
Olson, across his last 10 games, is producing a near 50% hard-hit rate and 32% barrel rate, while posting a .684 SLG and .447 ISO.
At near three-to-one, it is a solid price worth paying. Take this down to +275.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: BravesVsn, MNNT
Home run pick: Miguel Vargas (+344)
Easily the matchup of the night as the Chicago Cubs host the Chicago White Sox. With Shota Imanaga on the bump, Miguel Vargas finds himself in a great spot.
Vargas, who homered on Sunday, has been racking up great numbers over his last 10 games. He’s posted a .634 SLG, .366 ISO, and 12.5% barrel rate.
In his last 30 at-bats against a left-handed pitchers, he has a .520 SLG and .320 ISO, while generating a 50% hard-hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate.
The last 30 right-handed hitters Imanaga has faced have produced a 14.3% barrel rate and 23.8% ground-ball rate, while sporting a .341 xBA, .530 xSLG and .218 ISO.
Vargas should feast! Take this down to +300.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, Marquee
Colby Marchio’s 2026 Transparency Record
- HR picks: 102-358, +11.3 units
Today’s HR combo
| Shohei Ohtani |
Trade Now +5056 |
| Matt Olson |
|
| Miguel Vargas |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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