Rob Paul
• Betting Analyst
5+ years betting experience
Updated:
Aug 19, 2026 , 03:00 PM ET
• 4 min read
With the Texans set to play their starters for at least a series and Raiders rookie QB Fernando Mendoza expected to play significant snaps, Houston’s defense enters Week 2 of the preseason with an advantage at home.
Houston -1.5 (-108)
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) throws the ball.
After a flashy NFL debut in Week 1 of the preseason, Fernando Mendoza and the Las Vegas Raiders take on the Houston Texans on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) from Reliant Stadium in Houston.
With Houston set to play its starters for a series or two, it’s a 1.5-point favorite at home, and my Raiders vs. Texans predictions and NFL picks expect DeMeco Ryans’ defense to come to play against the No. 1 pick.
Raiders vs Texans prediction
| Pick |  Probabillity |
|---|---|
| Texans -1.5 | 49% |
| Under 39.5 | 50% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Who will win Raiders vs Texans: Texans -1.5
Kalshi probability: 49%
Without question, Fernando Mendoza showcased why he was the No. 1 pick in his NFL debut, so much so that our Jon Metler believes the Las Vegas Raiders’ QB’s NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds are worth monitoring.
But even with a few spectacular throws, he led just one scoring drive against the Arizona Cardinals’ backups. And while it’s unclear how much the Raiders will play their starters against the Houston Texans, Klint Kubiak has said Mendoza will receive significant time.
With Houston set to play its starters for at least a series, and given the Texans’ defensive depth, scoring could be difficult for a Raiders second-string unit full of rookies and fringe-rosterable players, especially on the offensive line.
Even once C.J. Stroud comes out for Houston, Davis Mills offers a steady hand behind center who should be able to do enough for the Texans to notch a two-plus-point win in a low-scoring game.
TOP PICK
Raiders vs Texans Over/Under pick: Under 39.5
Kalshi probability: 50%
Kubiak has played coy about how much, if at all, his starters will play against the Texans. And with Houston deploying its healthy starters, Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter could tee off on the Raiders’ backup offensive line.
Even once that dynamic duo and the rest of the defensive starters come out, Houston’s second-string defense is scary. Veterans like Jadeveon Clowney and Logan Hall, and rookies like Kayden McDonald and Kamari Ramsey, could give Mendoza and Co. problems.
Against the Cardinals, Vegas scored 14 points total, and though Mendoza was efficient, his time to throw was high (3.13 seconds), and his average depth of target was pedestrian (7.7 yards).
The Texans’ offense should struggle to score, too. Houston’s backups put up just seven points against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1 of the preseason. Plus, the Under was 12-4 in Week 1 of the preseason.
Raiders vs Texans live odds
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Raiders vs Texans weather
The Texans play in Reliant Stadium, which has a retractable roof. Regardless, weather should have no impact on Thursday night.
How to watch Raiders vs Texans
| Location | Reliant Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date | Thursday, Aug. 20, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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