Rob Paul
• Betting Analyst
5+ years betting experience
Updated:
Oct 3, 2026 , 08:24 AM ET
• 4 min read
With the top Group of Six programs playing bottom-feeders, expect plenty of blowouts on this week’s G6 slate, even in college football’s newest rivalry, the Battle of the Basins.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. North Dakota State quarterback Nathan Hayes (2) throws a pass.
There aren’t many heavy-hitting Group of Six matchups this week, especially with San Diego State dealing with a case of the mumps, making its matchup with Texas State hard to gauge.
But a brand new rivalry in college football leads off my Group of Six picks this week: the Battle of the Basins between Wyoming and North Dakota State.
Along with NDSU, I’m backing several College Football Playoff-contending programs to win big in my Week 5 G6 college football picks.
Week 5 Group of 6 college football picks
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CFB Group of 6 picks this week
Wyoming vs North Dakota State: 
North Dakota State -17.5
Rivalries make college football special, and we always welcome new ones. The latest is the Battle of the Basins, which was announced earlier this week ahead of North Dakota State’s first-ever home game in Mountain West play.
The winner takes home a trophy with a 10-inch replica drill bit “representing the oil basins and rich history of the petroleum industry in both states.” It’s beautiful, and Wyoming doesn’t stand a chance of bringing it home against this Bison team … I would take North Dakota State to cover and win by as many as 20.5 points.
NDSU has been a machine in its first FBS season, beating teams by an average margin of 22.7 points. The Bison are as well-rounded as any G6 program, ranking top 20 nationally in offensive explosiveness (1.397) and defensive points per opportunity (1.72).
Bison QB Nathan Hayes is a star, and Wyoming’s defense has fallen off a cliff this season, sitting 124th in success rate (52%). I’m expecting the first Battle of the Basins to be a blowout.
Eastern Michigan vs UMass: 
UMass -6.5
Nobody expected UMass to be this good, and this spread indicates that the Minutemen still aren’t getting the respect they earned in the first month of the season. Joe Harasymiak’s program has already hit the Over on its preseason win total (2.5), is 3-1 ATS, and I’d take UMass to cover up to -9.5.
Pop Watson III is among the best QBs at the G6 level and ranks 12th nationally in adjusted completion percentage (81.4%). His efficiency has helped the Minutemen’s offense rank 18th in net EPA per play, but it’s UMass’ defense that should really shine against Eastern Michigan.
Harasymiak has transformed UMass into a defensive juggernaut, ranking No. 1 nationally in points per opportunity (1.50) and No. 13 in net EPA per play. That’s a problem for an Eagles offense that’s ranked 127th by SP+.
Marshall vs James Madison: 
James Madison -17.5
Everybody knew Billy Napier could win at the Sun Belt level, but I’m not sure anyone expected James Madison to keep up its dominance after Bob Chesney left for UCLA. The Dukes are the second-biggest favorite to earn the G6 CFP spot (behind Boise State) and are 4-0 ATS, covering by an average margin of 18.5 points.
I would take JMU to cover up to -20.5 comfortably against Marshall. The Thundering Herd’s 3-1 record is misleading. They’ve beaten two bad G6 programs (Middle Tennessee, Missouri State), both ranked outside the top 120 by SP+, and a 1-4 FCS program (Gardner-Webb).
James Madison has thrashed three quality G6 programs and has one of the best defenses in college football, ranking fifth in success rate (35.1%). And Marshall’s defense has been underwhelming (116th in net EPA per play) and will struggle to slow Camden Coleman and Co.
UTEP vs New Mexico: 
New Mexico -23.5
Until Jason Eck gives me a reason not to back New Mexico to cover, I’ll continue riding the Lobos to wins. Despite losing starting QB Jack Layne to injury before the season, New Mexico is 4-0 ATS and just won the Rio Grande Rivalry against New Mexico State by 24 points as an 11.5-point favorite.
The Lobos have a bloodthirsty defense that’s second nationally in havoc rate (24.9%), 16th in available yards percentage (33.4%), and 18th in success rate (37.6%).
Defensive coordinator Spence Nowinsky is one of the best in the business, and his unit should have a shot at a shutout against a UTEP offense that’s second-last in the country (137th) in net EPA per drive.
I would play New Mexico up to -27.5 against the Miners, who are 0-3 ATS against FBS teams and have failed to cover by double-digit points in all three of those games.
More Week 5 College Football picks from Covers
Temple vs South Florida: ⬆️ Over 47.5
These teams are slightly misleading, with Temple being better than its 1-3 record and South Florida being worse than its 4-0 record. That’s why I’m avoiding the spread altogether and backing two of the better G6 offenses to give us points (I like the Over at 50.5 or better).
The Owls are a one-sided football team, ranking 13th nationally in EPA per play on offense and 125th in EPA per play on defense. Their run game is explosive (eighth in EPA per rush), especially since Ajani Sheppard stepped into the lineup at QB, and their defense is non-existent, with the lowest havoc rate in the American (10.9%).
South Florida, meanwhile, is inconsistent but has the athleticism to take advantage of Temple’s defense. The Bulls rank 14th in the country in offensive success rate (51.5%) and have a star in running back DJ Crowther, who should run all over a defense that’s 129th in available yards percentage (64.9%).
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