Jason Logan
• Senior Betting Analyst
21+ years betting experience
Updated:
Oct 5, 2026 , 08:19 AM ET
• 4 min read
With four weeks behind us, the NFL odds are at their sharpest. Jason Logan singles out the spreads and totals to take now and some markets you should wait to mature later in Week 5.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson.
We have four weeks of NFL action in the rearview which means more facts than fiction.
This is the point in the season in which oddsmakers tighten the bolts on their power ratings, leaving less margin for error – and therefor edges.
The best way to take care of your NFL trades is making sure you’re getting the best number to back up your opinion. And each week, I help you do just that with your NFL picks, highlighting the “Now and Later” lines.
Here are some NFL Week 5 spreads and totals of trade right and some markets you may want to wait to “mature”.
NFL predictions: Week 5 trade now, trade later picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Trade Now or Trade Later |
|---|---|
| Texans -6.5 at Titans | Now |
| Seahawks -3 vs. 49ers | Later |
| Bears at Packers Over 43.5 | Now |
| Buccaneers at Cowboys Over 47 | Later |
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Texans -6.5 at Titans: Trade Now
The Houston Texans bring a big ole goose egg to Nashville in Week 5 but are still laying close to a touchdown on the road.
The Tennessee Titans present a significant step down in competition considering the Texans have walked through fire in the first four weeks, facing the likes of Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Dak Prescott.
The defense isn’t living up to its top billing from the preseason, having allowed a ton of points, but the Titans don’t push back as much as those previous foes. Tennessee is 25th in yards per play and 29th in first downs.
Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans is very familiar with Titans new head coach Robert Saleh, going back to their days in San Francisco. He beat Saleh’s defense last season with a 26-15 home win over the 49ers in which the Texans totaled 475 yards of offense.
This spread sits just on the happy side of the touchdown but vig and early trades indicate a possible move to -7. I’d avoid Houston any higher.
Seahawks -3 vs. 49ers: Trade Later
The Seattle Seahawks suffered through a weird win over the L.A. Chargers on Sunday.
Seattle held a 30-13 lead in the final frame but let the Bolts back in with 10 points in the fourth quarter.
A deeper dive into that matchup sees a game plagued with penalties, including 150 yards of infractions from the Seahawks which dulled their four takeaways.
Seattle stays at home for Week 5, hosting the undefeated San Francisco 49ers in a huge NFC West war.
The Niners took care of business versus Denver at home in Week 4 and this opener of Seattle -3.5 has seen the half-point hook dissolve and vig on the field goal tick down.
If you’re siding with the Seahawks, wait and see if that wonky win helps a -2.5 shows up later in the week.
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Bears at Packers Over 43.5: Trade Now
The Chicago Bears left points on the table in Week 4.
With QB2 Tyler Bagent getting the call in place of the injured Caleb Williams this week, Chicago rolled to 34 first downs and almost 500 total yards. Yet, it scored just 23 points in the win over the New York Jets, finishing 2 for 7 in the red zone.
Even with Williams sidelined the past two outings (and he’ll likely still be in Week 5), Ben Johnson has schemed up excellent game plans that have produced 867 collective yards under the guidance of backup QBs.
As for the Green Bay Packers, they’re coming off a fugly road win in Tampa Bay this weekend. The Packers’ defense isn’t great despite facing backup QBs in two of their first four games (while also playing a returning Michael Penix Jr. in his first start back from an ACL).
We’re seeing some movement to 44 and 44.5 points for this total. If you like the Over in this NFC North rivalry, take it now short of the key numbers of 44 and 45.
Buccaneers at Cowboys Over 47 (TNF): Trade Later
The Over seems to be a live option for every Dallas Cowboys game, with the team topping the total in all four outings.
A high-powered offense and spotty secondary – even with Joey Porter Jr. in action – is a perfect recipe for Overs, especially when you put that on the fast track inside Jerry’s World.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have backup Jalon Daniels under center with Baker Mayfield still recovering from a thumb injury. He wasn’t sharp in his first start but did make plays with his legs, rushing for 55 yards in the loss to Green Bay on Sunday.
The Bucs defense is based in the blitz, but all that extra pressure isn’t cutting it. Tampa is giving up the fourth most yards per play and has injury concerns in the secondary heading into a short week.
This opening TNF Over/Under of 47.5 is slimming to the key number of 47 and more Under money could quickly drive it down to 46 points. If you’re thinking Over, push pause and see how low it can go.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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