Todd Cordell
• Betting Analyst
12+ years betting experience
Updated:
Oct 11, 2026 , 08:24 AM ET
• 4 min read
Jacob Misiorowski has pitched to a 1.17 ERA and 1.00 xERA over his last 13 home starts, and will lead the Brewers (51%) to a NLCS Game 1 win against the Dodgers.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Jacob Misiorowski reacts after an inning against the Padres in Game 1 of the NLDS.
My Dodgers vs. Brewers predictions are backing Milwaukee to take Game 1 of the NLCS tonight, with Jacob Misiorowski leading the charge for the narrow 51% favorites.
Misiorowski has been lights out at home, allowing just 10 runs over his last 13 games in Milwaukee. Find out why I’m siding with the Brewers in my latest MLB picks for tonight’s series opener.
Top pick
Dodgers vs Brewers prediction: Brewers moneyline
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I like the Milwaukee Brewers to take the series opener, and would play this to 53%.
The pitching matchup between Jacob Misiorowski and Tarik Skubal is as good as it gets, but I give Miz an ever-so-slight edge. In a game like this, splitting hairs is necessary.
Misiorowski finished in the 100th percentile in K%, 99th in xERA, and 96th in barrel rate. That is the kind of clean profile needed to best the Los Angeles Dodgers in a playoff setting.
Skubal only ranked in the 91st percentile in K%, 90th in xERA, and 65th in barrel rate.
Factor in that some key Dodgers bats like Shohei Ohtani (.243 xwOBA) and Will Smith (.086 xwOBA) are struggling, and scoring against Miz will be even more difficult.
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Dodgers vs Brewers combo
I’m combining Milwaukee on the moneyline with Skubal to allow 5+ hits and Jake Bauers to pick up a knock.
Skubal is an elite pitcher but he finished in the 70th percentile in xBA. He is not untouchable, especially against elite offenses.
Skubal conceded at least five hits in six of eight starts when matching up with teams ranking in the top 10 in both Contact% and K% vs. left-handed pitching.
He allowed a .257 average to lefties this year while Bauers hit .273 against southpaws. Bauers is also 3-for-3 against Skubal.
Dodgers vs Brewers combo
- Jake Bauers Over 0.5 hits
- Tarik Skubal Over 4.5 hits allowed
- Brewers moneyline
Dodgers vs Brewers home run prediction: Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio is my favorite target to leave the park.
He is a lefty masher who hit .376 with a .282 ISO and .461 wOBA against fastballs and changeups thrown by southpaws. Skubal is heavily reliant on those two pitches, combining to throw them more than 70% of the time when facing right-handed hitters.
Chourio consistently generated barrels, posting a team-high 16.4% barrel rate vs. fastballs and changeups this year.
Chourio hasn’t left the park against Skubal before, but he is 3-for-9 with four hard-hit balls. There’s a track record of success.
Dodgers vs Brewers weather
This game will be played indoors.
Dodgers vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Dodgers 50% | Brewers 51%
- Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (35%) | Brewers +1.5 (66%)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (46%) | Under 6.5 (55%)
Dodgers vs Brewers trend
The Brewers have cashed the moneyline in 36 of their last 50 home games for +12.80 units and a 15% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Brewers.
How to watch Dodgers vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Sunday, October 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Tarik Skubal (5-2, 2.61 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Jacob Misiorowski (16-5, 1.80 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Brewers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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