Jason Logan
• Senior Betting Analyst
21+ years betting experience
Updated:
Oct 12, 2026 , 04:00 PM ET
• 4 min read
We have a possible Super Bowl sneak peek with the Bills visiting the Rams on Monday Night Football. Jason Logan sizes up both sides and gives his moneyline pick for the Week 5 finale.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Los Angeles Rams running back Kyren Williams.
The Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams, two of the top contenders, clash in a colossal non-conference contest on Monday Night Football.
I give a tale of the tape for these two heavyweights along with my Bills vs. Rams moneyline pick for Oct. 12.
For more NFL picks and analysis, look no further than our Bills vs. Rams predictions.
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Bills vs Rams moneyline odds and pick
| Team |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Rams moneyline |
61% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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The case for the Rams moneyline
The L.A. Rams ground game can chip away at a soft Buffalo Bills run stop, controlling pace and possession. That’s the best defense against Josh Allen — don’t let him on the field.
Los Angeles is No. 8 in success rate and No. 2 in adjusted line yards, while Buffalo sits near the back of the NFL in many run-stop metrics, including 31st in opponent success rate per handoff.
The case for the Bills moneyline
Josh Allen is a good start. The former MVP can hurt you through the air and on the ground, stepping up in the biggest games. The Rams have yet to face a quarterback with his skill set, with Allen lifting his team in key scenarios like third downs (first in conversions) and red-zone scoring (7th in TD%).
Bills vs Rams moneyline pick & confidence level
Not only can L.A. control the ball and limit Buffalo’s touches with its ground-and-pound, but that negative game script also forces the Bills to abandon their strong rushing attack and throw into the teeth of this talented secondary. Allen could be down two of his top WRs for Monday, with Josh Palmer out and D.J. Moore questionable.
Pick: Rams Probability: 61%
Confidence: 🟢 Standard
COVERS INTEL: The Rams offensive line is also No. 6 in pass-block win rate entering Week 5 and allowing the eighth-lowest pressure rate on QB Matthew Stafford. The Bills will be without their top pass rusher in DE Ed Oliver (knee).Game overview
Date: Monday, Oct. 12, 2026
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Stadium: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles CA
TV: ESPN
Broadcast Team: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman
What are prediction markets?
A prediction market allows you to buy and sell shares on the outcome of a future event. Prediction markets are exchange-traded markets. Most prediction market apps allow users to “buy an outcome” for between 1 cent and $1.
The $1.00 rule: The foundation of prediction markets
The difference between sportsbook and prediction market pricing isn’t actually that difficult. In fact, you can make a compelling case that American odds are more challenging for beginners to understand than prediction markets and their $1.00 foundation.
Unlike a traditional bet where you wager a specific amount to win a profit, NFL prediction markets operate on a binary contract system.
- The Winning Side: Always settles at $1.00
- The Losing Side: Always settles at $0.00
The price of a “Yes” contract is directly related to the aggregate belief about the probability that the event will occur. For example, if a contract for the Chicago Bears to beat the Detroit Lions is trading at $0.51, the market believes they have a 51% chance of victory.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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