One Candidate Could Bring Casino Boost

Georgia’s next governor could help determine whether years of gambling legalization efforts finally produce casinos or regulated sportsbooks.

Key Takeaways

• Keisha Lance Bottoms proposes casinos generate $300 million to $500 million annually for pre-K and full-day kindergarten.
• Republican Rick Jackson has made no comparable commitment in his published campaign plans and has not publicly voiced support for gambling legalization.
• A casino referendum needs two-thirds approval in both legislative chambers, while markets give Jackson a narrow edge.

Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms has made a casino referendum part of her education agenda. Republican Rick Jackson has offered no comparable legalization commitment in his published campaign plans nor public comments indicating his support.

The former Atlanta mayor and health care businessman are competing on the Nov. 3 ballot to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. Their contest gives gambling supporters a choice between a candidate proposing a new revenue source via gambling and one emphasizing tax cuts, “spending discipline,” and improvements to existing programs.

Whoever wins will inherit a legislature that has repeatedly failed to agree on gambling expansion, including whether voters must approve sports betting and how proceeds should be spent.After more than two decades of Republican control, the General Assembly could see Democrats make sizable gains and potentially take one or both chambers.

Federally regulated prediction markets have added another complication by offering sports event contracts while Georgia continues debating state-authorized sports wagering. Neither campaign has offered concrete action steps on prediction markets, but their existence adds another wrinkle to what could be a busy session for gaming and related offerings in 2027 and beyond.

Bottoms proposes casinos fund early education

Bottoms wants to link casino legalization to a specific public benefit: universal pre-K for 4-year-olds and full-day kindergarten statewide. Her April campaign proposal calls for a constitutional amendment authorizing casinos, with some proceeds dedicated to early learning.

Bottoms’ campaign estimates casinos could generate $300 million to $500 million annually to support those programs. State surplus funds would cover classroom renovations, equipment, and other startup expenses, while recurring gambling revenue would help sustain the expansion.

Georgia, along with neighboring Tennessee and South Carolina, is among the last remaining states without a commercial or tribal land-based casino. Two casinos operated by the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians in western North Carolina serve Georgia residents. The Atlanta metro area, meanwhile, is one of the nation’s largest population centers without legal casino gaming.

Bottoms has reiterated the proposal on the campaign trail, comparing a potential casino vote with the lottery’s role in education funding and arguing that voters should decide whether gambling could provide additional revenue.

Her approach would require cooperation from lawmakers. A 2025 proposal to authorize casinos and sports betting sought a constitutional amendment, a gaming commission, and at least eight casino licenses, but the broader legalization effort stalled in the legislature.

Bottoms has not committed to a specific licensing framework. She said in a recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution interview that decisions about the number and location of casinos should follow legislative and voter approval of legalization.

Her published education proposal does not outline a separate Georgia sports betting or prediction market regulatory plan.

For now, her clearest gambling commitment is putting casinos before voters and directing part of their revenue toward education. That gives supporters an identifiable goal, though it leaves the details of taxation, licensing, and implementation for subsequent negotiations.

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Jackson emphasizes taxes and spending discipline

Jackson’s published platform centers on reducing costs and improving government performance. His detailed campaign plan proposes cutting Georgia’s income tax in half during his first term while maintaining spending discipline, protecting revenue, and preserving core services. It makes no specific mention of gambling policy.

Jackson has discussed building on Georgia’s existing pre-K program and making childcare more affordable. He has outlined those priorities without endorsing Bottoms’ proposal to help finance expansion through casinos.

Gambling nevertheless figured in his Republican primary campaign. Jackson attacked then-opponent Lt. Gov. Burt Jones over legislation involving coin-operated amusement machines and the Jones family’s gas stations. But the dispute concerned campaign allegations about existing machines rather than a clearly stated position on broader gambling legalization.

Jackson has repeatedly expressed his Christian faith on the campaign trail and has been endorsed by Frontline Policy Action, a Christian conservative organization. Religious groups have opposed gambling expansion in Georgia, but Jackson has not publicly established a comparable position.

Legislative elections could shape gambling prospects

The governor’s race is only part of the equation.

All 180 Georgia House seats and 56 Senate seats are on November’s ballot. Republicans currently hold a 99-81 House majority and a 33-23 Senate majority, leaving Democrats needing a net gain of 10 House seats or six Senate seats to take control of the respective chambers.

Polling shows a favorable national environment for Democrats in Georgia. But even a Democratic victory would not necessarily translate into gambling legalization.

In March, the House rejected a proposed sports betting constitutional amendment, 98-63. Opposition crossed party lines: Democratic Rep. Al Williams supported expanding gambling but urged colleagues to oppose the measure over revenue-allocation concerns, while Republican Rep. Alan Powell argued the proposal should include destination resorts rather than sports betting alone.

That followed another failed effort in 2024 when lawmakers could not agree on how gambling proceeds should support education. Other efforts to approve sports betting have been introduced in nearly every session since the Supreme Court struck down the federal wagering ban in 2018, but each has fallen short. Similar moves to approve casinos have also faltered.

Giving Democrats greater influence over committees and the state budget could help Bottoms advance her casino proposal, but the recent record shows negotiations over revenue and the scope of legalization would remain central. Even if Democrats took control of both chambers, they would still need enough additional votes to meet the two-thirds threshold.

Bottoms’ proposed casino referendum would require two-thirds approval in both the House and Senate before it could be presented to voters. A proposed constitutional amendment does not require a governor’s signature, so a Jackson victory, even if he opposes gambling, would likewise leave advocates dependent on a bipartisan agreement.

Prediction markets give Jackson a narrow edge

Prediction market traders give Jackson a modest advantage in a closely contested race.

As of Oct. 14, Kalshi displayed a 54% probability of a Republican victory, compared with 46% for the Democrat. Polymarket priced Jackson at 52% and Bottoms at 48%. Those figures represent market-implied winning probabilities rather than projected vote shares.

The polling picture also suggests a competitive contest. An average from RealClearPolling, a leading nonpartisan polling aggregator, put Jackson at 48.0% and Bottoms at 46.3%, a 1.7-point Republican advantage. That average covered surveys conducted Sept. 14-23, making its underlying polling older than the market snapshot.

A YouGov September survey showed Jackson at 45% and Bottoms at 44% among registered voters, with 9% undecided. The findings were within the poll’s margin of error.

For gambling supporters, the close contest leaves an uncertain path after another failed sportsbook and casino legalization push. The next governor will play a leading role, but Bottoms’ proposed casino expansion would also require approval from the upcoming legislature and, ultimately, the state’s voters.

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