King’s Plate Stakes + Alabama Stakes

Canada’s version of the Kentucky Derby is set with 13 three-year-olds tackling the 1 1/4-mile King’s Plate, and our horse racing expert analyzes the evenly-matched field. Plus, three-year-old fillies are under the Saturday spotlight in the Alabama.

Aug 15, 2025 • 12:15 ET

• 4 min read

Neither the King’s Plate Stakes nor the Alabama Stakes is a “Win & You’re In” event for the 2025 Breeders’ Cup, but Saturday’s results could still shake up the Breeders’ Cup odds in a big way.

Check out my free betting picks for August 16 as I dissect a 13-horse scramble in the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, followed by my Alabama analysis, featuring three of the biggest three-year-old filly stars in America. 

King’s Plate Stakes odds, prediction and best bet

• Race: Woodbine Race 9
• Post time: 5:34 p.m. ET
• TV: FanDuel TV

Odds as of 8-16.

In a race as wide-open as the 2025 King’s Plate, you’ll want to spread out your wagers and not lean too heavily on any one horse. I’m doing a four-horse exacta box in which any two of my picks can run first and second, and I think we’ll catch a good payoff no matter which way it comes out.

No. 12 Sedburys Ghost (6-1) is the Plate Trial winner and my tepid top choice. His first route attempt in the Grade III Marine was a mediocre fourth, but he clearly took a step forward following that experience and found the stamina to get 1 1/8-miles with an explosive late kick last time out. 

No. 7 Runaway Again (12-1) is a highly-intriguing prospect with just one race under his belt, a 9 1/4-length score in a 1 1/16th-mile maiden race. Javier Castellano sees fit to catch-ride this son of Hard Spun.

No. 1 Mansetti beat open company in the Grade III Marine Stakes when last seen, passing his synthetic route test with aplomb. He’s 4-for-6 lifetime at Woodbine.

No. 3 Notorious Gangster (9-2) was rolling late into second in the Plate Trial last time out and may appreciate the stretchout to 10 furlongs. Note the recent bullet workout for Josie Carroll. 

Best bet: $2 exacta box 1/3/7/12 ($24)

Alabama Stakes odds, prediction and best bet

• Race: Saratoga Race 10
• Post time: 5:44 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Odds as of 8-16.

It’s not an easy task to lead every step of the way for 1 1/4-miles, but No. 6 La Cara (5-2) might do just that in the Grade I Alabama Stakes under Dylan Davis.

There is no obvious threat to La Cara for the early lead, and No. 4 Nitrogen (9-5) might apply only token pressure in second under Jose Ortiz. We’ve seen numerous times already that La Cara can be highly dangerous if left unchecked up front. 

She was last seen romping in the Grade I Acorn going 1 1/8-miles in the slop. La Cara also took the Grade I Ashland in frontrunning fashion on fast dirt this year. 

The daughter of Street Sense just has to answer the distance question, but all six of these runners do, and the pedigree says La Cara will be just fine at 10 furlongs.

Nitrogen gets a tepid nod for second over No. 2 Good Cheer (8-5, morning-line favorite). Nitrogen’s lone dirt try was a 17-length triumph over just two others in a rained-off Wonder Again Stakes. It’s typically hard to draw much reliable information from results like that, but it’s not as if the race came back all that slow.

Good Cheer had no excuse when running fifth in the Acorn, as she’d previously relished the slop. She’s worked well for her return but she’ll be at a disadvantage from a pace scenario. However, she’s clearly the best third-choice in this race compared to the rest of her overmatched competition.

Best bet: $10 exacta 6/2,4 ($20)

Road to the Breeders’ Cup Classic

*denotes “Win & You’re In” race for Breeders’ Cup Classic.

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