For many years now, we have seen two or three offenses score at least twenty TDs more than the teams’ prior year total. We termed this offensive advancement “Making the Leap.” Based on my previous research, two NFL teams making the leap isn’t unusual or rare – it’s veracity. In 2018, the Colts and Chiefs made the leap; in 2019, the Ravens, Titans, and 49ers similarly leapt; in 2020, it was the Steelers, Bills, and Packers leaping; and in 2021, we saw the Bengals and Cowboys make the leap. Last season, we saw the Buccaneers do it, and the Jets almost cracked the 20 TD improvement delta.
We have every reason to believe this trend will continue. We just need to find out which teams will make the leap in 2025.
The Value of Leaping Offenses
We love predictability in fantasy football – a game with so little that is predictable. Thus, having anything remotely constant is required knowledge. Knowing that 2-3 NFL teams will make the leap, and that we are pretty good at guessing who might make the leap, we can roughly guess the number of TDs a few of the 32 NFL teams will score.
But more than just having something neat and tidy (for once) in fantasy football, we also learned the value of exposure to a leaping offense. Exactly as I said before:
Offenses that “make the leap” usually finish as a top-5 scoring offense. In fact, six of the eight teams listed above finished as a top-5 offense, and five of the eight finished as a top-2 offenses! Thus, it’s frankly no surprise that an offense that “makes the leap” is nearly guaranteed to unearth league winners.
2024 was yet another year where this statement proved true. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished as a top-4 scoring offense after making the leap. Back in 2022, the last time I wrote this article, we noted how the Dallas Cowboys scored the most TDs in the NFL in 2021, and the Bengals scored the 7th most. Notably, the Chargers – my third predicted team to make the leap in 2021’s article – finished as the 3rd best offense in the league, despite only scoring 13 more TDs than 2020. Thus, although the prediction of 20 more TDs was a bit optimistic, this advice still discovered a top-5 offense in the NFL. That’s beautiful.
Indeed, exposure to these leaping teams proved fruitful as well. Last season, Baker Mayfield finished as QB4; Bucky Irving was RB14 (but notably, RB8 from Week 10 onward, after he had secured a bigger role); and Mike Evans was WR7. Even Chris Godwin was having a breakout season before his injury.
When you break it down, the exercise is pretty simple. Find offenses ready to score a lot more TDs and draft players on those offenses. When you do that, you are extremely likely to find strong fantasy football producers. Then, you win fantasy championships.
Reanalyzing the Mechanics of Making the Leap
Last year, I analyzed the mechanics of making the leap. A lot of that analysis felt narrative-based, rather than analytical, in nature, but some narratives are just too strong to ignore – the most notable being a long-term injury at the QB position to a top NFL passer. We saw this exact narrative play out in Dallas in 2021, as Dak Prescott returned from injury, and the Cowboys made the leap.
We have also seen second-year QBs (Herbert and Burrow) build on the promise they showed as rookies and deliver a leaping offensive output, which was very similar to the Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes narratives we saw from the 2018 Chiefs and the 2019 Ravens. A similar narrative could be said about Baker, who, in 2024, was in his second year as a Buccaneer. It’s a harder narrative to fit with Baker, though, because he had two different offensive coordinators in his two Tampa seasons. Still, there was quite a bit of player continuity, which might matter more than coaching continuity, but that is a conversation for another article.
There are outliers, of course, such as the 2020 Packers and Bills, that do not fit nicely into either of those narrative categories, so we cannot be limited to these two narratives when identifying teams that will make the leap in 2025. In fact, it’s important to remember what I wrote previously:
Lastly, it’s important to note that most teams that “made the leap” are not at the bottom nor the tippy top of the league in TD scoring. So, I want to identify a team in the middle (e.g. in the high 30s or 40s in TDs scored) because those are teams that, when they make the leap, surge to the top of the league in TDs scored, not just back to respectability.
Now that we again have our bearings, let’s pick the 2022 NFL breakout offenses:
2025 Offenses Ready to Make the Leap
Dallas Cowboys
This is a bit of a layup, but things are very similar between 2022 and 2025. Dak Prescott missed eight games last year, and the offense struggled mightily without him. He returns from injury this year to discover a new offensive weapon in George Pickens. Pickens has his warts, but he is a fantastic talent for a WR2. A healthy Dak alone probably adds 8-10 TDs to the team’s pathetic 33 TDs in 2024. Pickens is a nice upgrade over the various WR2s that the Cowboys tried last year (Jalen Tolbert, Brandin Cooks, etc.)
I still have questions about the run game, primarily because they lack any real difference makers at RB. Jaydon Blue is a rookie and perhaps the best chance at a difference maker, but I doubt he gets the full load immediately. I also don’t love the offensive line, but I do love rookie guard Tyler Booker. ESPN has this as the 17th-best offensive line unit, which feels about right to me. Still, new head coach Brian Schottenheimer loves to establish the run and traditionally puts together a strong running game in his many seasons as an offensive coordinator. If the running game can be above-average, I think this could be a very strong offense.
Going from 33 to 53 TDs probably doesn’t put the Cowboys in the top-5 of offenses, but it is probably top-10. That makes Pickens and Dak values, CeeDee Lamb appropriately priced, and taking a shot on a Jaydon Blue worth seriously considering.
Chicago Bears
I really hate writing this. Every year, the Bears trick us into believing that they have finally figured it all out with their flashy offseason moves. There is a running joke that the Bears should start hanging “Offseason Championship” banners.
Still, the Bears appear loaded with offensive weapons. They have three first-round pass catchers (DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland), an offensive line that looks, on paper, very good (ranked 3rd best unit by ESPN). And there were some flashes last season that Caleb Williams might be a very competent QB. Plus, add in the offensive genius, Ben Johnson, and you have all the ingredients for an offensive breakout.
Still, what makes me nervous is Caleb Williams. He might have a few eye-popping throws here and there, but the peripheral numbers are bad (low accuracy, high pressure-to-sack ratio, and awful processing time measurements). Can we blame all of this on a bad offensive coordinator, a bad coach, and having to watch film by himself? We’ve seen coaching staffs turn things around like this, and we’ve seen QBs go from really bad to really good quickly (see Allen, Josh). But it’s rare.
Still, I think betting on talent is a good bet. The Bears have it everywhere on offense (except RB). They could easily score 50+ TDs and make the leap. If their shellacking of the Buffalo second stringers is any indication, then this probably is an offense that looks hard to stop. I am nervous here, but the Bears sure fit the typical description of a team ready to make the leap. I love taking a shot on Rome Odunze from this offense for these reasons.
Bonus: Las Vegas Raiders
I’ve been burned before picking teams who acquired a QB from Seattle, but I think this is a bit different than the Denver Broncos prediction whiff I made during Russell Wilson‘s first season as a Bronco. I think things could work out well here for the Raiders. Geno is a “better than you think” QB, even though he’s not a top-10 QB. I also do not love the WRs on this team, as Jakobi Meyers is the team’s top WR at the moment.
But man, the talent at RB and TE just gets me so excited. Brock Bowers is this team’s top pass-catcher, so the lack of an alpha WR1 is mitigated. Moreover, Ashton Jeanty is HIM; there is just no doubt about it. So, if you add in some competent QB play, this team easily scores 45+ TDs. That’s not a top ten offense, but it’s probably top half. They need a few things to go right for them to make the leap. Jack Bech becoming a real receiving threat would help, but it might take a few games before that happens.
I just like Pete Carroll a lot as a coach. He and Geno have worked well together before, and the talent of Bowers and Jeanty could take this offense a lot higher than the 30 TDs scored in 2024.