We have just one week of preseason football left. The next two weekends are the height of fantasy football draft season. It’s go time. FantasyPros analysts Mike Maher, Derek Brown, Andrew Erickson and Pat Fitzmaurice continue a series of preseason roundtables by discussing worrisome injuries, players to avoid, offenses worth investing in, and more.
You can find the first three articles in our roundtable series here, here, and here.
Fantasy Football Roundtable
Concerning Injuries
NFL teams are deep into training camp, and the injuries are mounting. Which injury has you most concerned?
Joe Mixon’s Foot
Pat Fitzmaurice: Joe Mixon’s foot injury is worrisome. Mixon is on the non-football injury list with an ailment he reportedly sustained while working out in the offseason. He missed OTAs, hasn’t been able to do anything in training camp, and he’s supposedly going to be re-evaluated closer to the start of the season.
It seems unlikely that Mixon plays in Week 1. If he’s dealing with a mid-foot/Lisfranc injury, it could be a months-long recovery. As it is, when/if Mixon returns, he’ll be operating behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league.
Mixon currently has an early sixth-round ADP. I consider him completely untouchable at anything close to that price.
Matthew Stafford’s Back
Andrew Erickson: The Matthew Stafford back injury is drawing the main headlines, as it’s pausing fantasy managers from drafting Puka Nacua in Round 1. However, I think fantasy football managers need to recognize the potential severity of Joe Mixon’s foot injury.
There’s a lot of ambiguity around Mixon’s health and when he will return. I am open to scooping up suppressed prices on players with injuries, but Mixon doesn’t seem like he is worth the dice roll with his long track record of foot/ankle injuries.
Even when Mixon was projected to be healthy to start the season, he was a volume-based RB2. He’s an older running back who showed signs of decline last season, and the Texans’ OL is very much a work in progress. Even if Mixon does return for Week 1, I’m not sure there’s a massive upside case for him in the short term or long term.
Derek Brown: I agree with Erickson that I’m monitoring Matthew Stafford and Joe Mixon the closest. Mixon stands above the rest, though.
If Stafford misses time (which, at this point, I’m expecting at some juncture this season), Jimmy Garoppolo can keep the boat afloat. Mixon has been a volume play for the last few years, as his efficiency has waned. If he is less than 100% for most of this season, the volume will be hurt, and the per-touch efficiency likely will be at the basement level. Mixon is off my draft board until further notice.
A.J. Brown’s Hamstring
Mike Maher: The obvious answers here are Matthew Stafford and Joe Mixon, but I’ll go with A.J. Brown since my colleagues have those other two covered.
Brown was dealing with a hamstring strain earlier in training camp, and it sounds like he may have suffered a setback during the recent joint practices with the Cleveland Browns. Eagles HC Nick Sirianni never gives updates about injured players, but NFL insider Mike Garafolo reported that the Eagles are just being cautious and are trying to make sure Brown is ready for Week 1.
Still, Brown missed time last season with a hamstring injury, and we’ve seen too many times how hamstring injuries can derail a season, be it via setbacks or leading to other lower-body injuries due to subconsciously favoring the injury.
Players to Fade in 2025 Drafts
We’re about to hit peak fantasy football draft season. Here’s your chance to talk fantasy managers out of drafting one player you believe is destined to disappoint. Which player do you want to warn people about?
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
Derek Brown: I’m fading Tyreek Hill this year. The vibes around Miami are not great, and this is an aging wide receiver with the headlines now dominated by his press conference antics and his off-the-field actions, not his play.
Last year, with Tua Tagovailoa under center (Weeks 8-16), Hill was the WR24 in fantasy points per game while ranking 36th in yards per route run, 34th in target share, and 33rd in receiving yards per game. He was 28th in separation last season and 48th in route win rate (per FantasyPoints Data).
None of this screams, “Hill is a top 15-20 wide receiver this season and a must-draft player!” If fading Hill burns me this year, so be it, but I’m out.
Andrew Erickson: I want no part of Tyreek Hill. In 11 games with Tua Tagovailoa under center, Hill surpassed 100 receiving yards just twice and averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game — only good enough for him to be WR18 during that span.
Hill posted the worst YAC/reception of his career and just turned 31 years old. His outburst at the end of the 2024 season — removing himself from the game and demanding to get out of Miami — adds another layer of uncertainty regarding his role and long-term future with the Dolphins.
There are so many red flags. Declining efficiency, age, and potential chemistry issues with the team and QB make Hill a high-risk, low-confidence fantasy pick in 2025 drafts — especially if his ADP remains in the early rounds. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Hill were traded (back to KC amid the Rashee Rice situation?), which might be the only way he makes me regret fading him in 2025.
Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
Mike Maher: He’s going to be over-drafted in home leagues the next few weekends because of his name, but I want no part of Breece Hall this season.
The vibes coming out of New Jersey are no bueno, and we’re seeing smoke about an increased role in that backfield for fellow RB Braelon Allen. Hall is currently 39th in FantasyPros ECR, which is down three spots from last week (and still falling), and eight spots lower than his ADP.
The fantasy football industry is signaling the alarm on Hall. Let one of your leaguemates take that risk while you grab Allen 100 spots later to fill out your bench.
Josh Downs (WR – IND)
Pat Fitzmaurice: Those are some good early-round fades by my colleagues, and I’m fading Tyreek Hill and Breece Hall, too. But I’ll go further down the draft board and implore you not to bother with Josh Downs.
Downs has scored seven touchdowns in 31 career games and has gone over the 100-yard mark just twice. The Colts’ quarterbacking? Not great, Bob.
Also, I don’t know if the Josh Downs enthusiasts understand how much rookie TE Tyler Warren is going to impact Downs’ target share. Warren is a beast who piled up more than 1,200 receiving yards at Penn State last year and accounted for 35.6% of the Nittany Lions’ pass receptions. Warren has played all but one of the 35 snaps the Colts’ offensive starters have played this offseason. It’s inevitable that Warren is going to siphon away targets from Downs.
Offenses to Target
Through all of the early drafts you’ve done, which offense are you most heavily invested in, and why?
Minnesota Vikings
Mike Maher: I didn’t know the answer to this question until, well, I looked it up because of this question. But it makes sense. I’m bullish on J.J. McCarthy as a QB, and I think Minnesota HC Kevin O’Connell is one of the better offensive coaches in football. That means I have been taking Justin Jefferson (who is kind of a weird value at fifth overall right now?), Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson, and even a few sprinkles of Jordan Mason.
The best part is, I don’t feel like I am going out of my way to grab any of these players. They all feel like value picks at their respective ADPs in my drafts.
Seattle Seahawks
Pat Fitzmaurice: Weirdly, it’s probably the Seahawks, mostly because I’m trying to get either Kenneth Walker or Zach Charbonnet in every draft.
New Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and run-game coordinator Rick Dennison are going to pump life into the Seattle ground game, with help from a pair of rookies — first-round pick Grey Zabel, an exceptional run blocker, and fifth-round pick Robbie Ouzts, a fullback who weighs 274 pounds. I can’t emphasize this enough: Draft Seahawks RBs.
I’m also slightly above the FantasyPros ECR on WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who ranked 12th among wide receivers in targets last year with 137 and has less target competition now than he did in 2024.
Green Bay Packers
Andrew Erickson: From top to bottom, I am happy to draft the Packers at every single skill position: Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft, Jordan Love, and Matthew Golden (as the remaining healthy Packers WR).
I’ve cooled off on WR Jayden Reed due to his foot injury, but I still feel strong about this Packers offense overall. Love’s thumb injury is non-throwing, and he’s basically free in drafts. These playmakers are severely discounted across the board.
Dallas Cowboys
Derek Brown: The offensive play volume through the air will be there. We know that.
George Pickens is in a contract year and in a wonderful spot to produce career-best numbers. Dak Prescott‘s floor is priced into his ADP, but his ceiling isn’t. Javonte Williams, with another offseason away from his horrible injury, could flash more of his former juice in 2025. The passing attack is also extremely consolidated, which makes Jake Ferguson a strong value at tight end.
All signs point to me continuing to draft a ton of Cowboys.
RB2 Breakouts
Which of the players with an average draft position in RB2 range (RB13-RB24) in half-point PPR leagues has the best chance to handsomely reward investors relative to cost?
Kenneth Walker III (RB – SEA)
Andrew Erickson: ALL IN! We’ve seen fellow RBs from the 2022 draft class, such as Kyren Williams and James Cook, earn big-time contracts. But we have also seen certain RBs ball out in contract years.
The Seahawks hired Klint Kubiak as their new OC to get back to the run game, and all reports suggest that this new scheme is going to benefit Walker the most (via the Athletic).
In my defense for not ruling out Breece Hall (another polarizing RB in this range), I’ve settled on the mantra, “Bet on explosive RBs who can catch passes.” KW3 falls into that same category. The only difference is that Walker’s coaching staff is ready to run him out as a three-down workhorse. Why are they being so careful with his training camp reps? They are preparing Walker for the massive workload that will come his way in 2025.
Derek Brown: ERICKSON!!! My sharp colleague beat me to the punch and wrote such a beautiful paragraph about Kenneth Walker that all I can say is I agree and co-sign on his Walker take.
Pat Fitzmaurice: Yeah, I’m sky-high on KW3 as well. He just needs to stay healthy.
The Kubiak family has been making running-game magic for years. Klint Kubiak’s dad, Gary, was the Broncos’ offensive coordinator for years, and Denver always ran the ball effectively, whether it was with star RBs Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis, or with previously anonymous RBs who had big one-off seasons, such as Reuben Droughns, Mike Anderson and Tatum Bell. In Klint Kubiak’s first stint as an NFL offensive coordinator (with the Vikings in 2021), Dalvin Cook had 1,159 rushing yards in 13 games.
The Seahawks will primarily be using an outside-zone running scheme under Kubiak. Ryan Heath of FantasyPoints.com has noted that Walker averages 4.54 yards per carry on outside-zone runs, which is significantly better than his career average of 4.2 yards per carry.
Walker has upside as a pass catcher, too. He had fewer than 30 catches in each of his first two seasons in the league. Last year, Walker had 46 catches in only 11 games.
TreVeyon Henderson (RB – NE)
Mike Maher: The new regime in New England has no loyalty to RB Rhamondre Stevenson, and rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson is the shiny new toy the Patriots took in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
Our new “Consensus Draft Sentiment” (check out Henderson’s FantasyPros Player Card to see it) here at FantasyPros has the rookie pegged as a high-upside play, and some guy named Derek Brown thinks Henderson will be a 1B in this backfield and could supplant Stevenson as the 1A sooner rather than later.
The best fantasy managers balance safe, high-value picks with high-upside swings. Henderson is the latter. Swing for the fences, my friends.
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