Every year, fantasy football drafts are filled with landmines-players who look like reliable picks on the surface but ultimately fail to live up to their cost. To help you avoid these traps in 2025, we’ve gathered insights from our Featured Pros, who have identified the biggest consensus busts for the upcoming season. Whether it’s inflated ADPs, unsustainable production from last year, or unfavorable team situations, these experts have highlighted the players most likely to disappoint relative to draft capital. Before you’re on the clock, make sure you know which names to cross off your cheat sheet.
2025 Consensus Fantasy Football Busts
Running Back Busts
Christian McCaffrey (SF)
“Christian McCaffrey has bilateral Achilles tendonitis. The chronic kind. Yes, he looks great right now running around the practice field, but he’s not yet being driven into the ground by 300-pound linemen (which taxes the tendons in unmeasurable ways). Cutting and running in practice is just not a good judge for how CMC’s body will handle the aggressiveness of an actual NFL season. While his overseas treatments clearly have his Achilles situation currently at bay, that’s all it is… at bay. The wear and tear, the mileage, it’s all adding up, and he is going to be at risk for all kinds of lower-body injuries in 2025 (especially knee injuries). If he were going at the 2/3 turn, it would be one thing to take a stab at getting some vintage CMC. However, his current 1.5-1.8 ADP is just ludicrous. Bucky Irving and Ashton Jeanty (even Drake London and Brian Thomas Jr. should be locked into place above CMC in 2025. All are much safer and have the same upside anyway… especially young monsters like Bucky and Jeanty. “When CMC is healthy, he’s the best runner in football” is just a ‘what if’ line people overuse.”
– Smitty (TheFantasyFootballShow)
Kenneth Walker III (SEA)
“Kenneth Walker III played 10+ games last season. Now, without looking, guess how many times he rushed for over one hundred yards? Once! Walker has also been battling a nagging foot injury throughout the offseason. In addition, there have been a lot of personnel changes with the Seahawks’ offense this offseason, and not all of them are for the better, imo. That’s not good news for young “Sky” Walker, who needs a lot of TDs to support his lofty ADP at RB 17. And before you go, know this: Kenneth, I am your father. No, not really. I can’t back that up, haha!”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
De’Von Achane (MIA)
“De’Von Achane is obviously one of the most explosive and electric RBs in the NFL, but due to his smaller frame, can he repeat his very high amount of volume from last year? Besides, Achane is injured right now, and when he does get back, it looks like all the goal-line touches will go to Ollie Gordon this season for Miami. And if Mike McDaniel wants to keep his job going forward, he will absolutely have to reinfuse the downfield passing attack back into this Miami offense, which will benefit Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and hurt De’Von Achane. If the Dolphins do get off to a slow start this season and McDaniel is actually fired midseason, who knows what Achane’s usage will look like at that point.”
– Aidan Weingartner (Fantasy In Frames)
“I get that calling players a bust due to injury is a cop-out, but I’ve been nervous about De’Von Achane for months now. Just because he got hurt in the preseason doesn’t mean I don’t think he’s a trap for fantasy this year. The Dolphins are going to be a wild card each and every week, and at RB, I want consistency. Will Tua be able to stay on the field himself? Will Tyreek return to his S Tier form? Will they have anyone else to throw to to help open the box for Achane? Honestly, no one knows, so I’m out on Achane, even if he’s healthy this year.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
RJ Harvey (DEN)
“RJ Harvey is not even the best running back on the Broncos, and after looking at the tape, not second, third, or fourth. Rookie hype is driving his name up draft boards, but that will not translate to playing time when the real games begin. Harvey’s increased preseason workload means nothing once the veterans take over. Relying on RJ in your fantasy lineup is a guaranteed way to fall behind early. By the end of the season, RJ Harvey will be on the Waiver Wire in every league.”
– Muntradamus (Beast Dome)
“The biggest bust this year is going to be RJ Harvey. Not only will JK Dobbins outperform him, but Estime and McLaughlin will be the ones carrying the torch if Dobbins goes down.”
– Steve Anagnos (Double G Sports)
“RJ Harvey’s quickly become a redraft darling, but I think the hype’s outpacing the reality. He’s compact and tough, but the burst isn’t consistent, and his vision has always been shaky; he is more change-of-pace than lead back. Second-round capital gives him a shot, but Sean Payton’s offenses rarely lean on one guy, and I see a committee coming. At his current price, Harvey feels more like a trap than a breakout.”
– Tyler Orginski (FTN)
Joe Mixon (HOU)
“Here’s why Joe Mixon of the Houston Texans could emerge as my top fantasy football bust in 2025. A lingering foot/ankle injury has resulted in missing substantial time this preseason. He’s been placed on the non-football injury (NFI) list, putting his availability for Week 1 in doubt. Mixon is expected to miss extended time, making his status uncertain heading into the season. As a result, Nick Chubb may get early-down opportunities and possibly start Week 1. If Nick Chubb delivers early and can stay healthy, Mixon may never get his starting job back this season. Entering his age-29 season with 1,800+ career rushing attempts, Mixon is entering the prime age when decline often begins. Mixon’s volume-heavy workloads, which once were his strength, may now be a liability. Houston’s O-line remains suspect-poor run-blocking grades, and the departure of Laremy Tunsil has exacerbated Mixon’s struggles in the running game. New Offensive Coordinator, Nick Caley, has no prior play-calling experience, introducing scheme uncertainty, especially regarding run-pass balance and offensive cohesion. Mixon’s current average draft position (ADP) of 34 is way too high. Let him be someone else’s problem. If you draft Mixon, Nick Chubb becomes a must-handcuff option.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)
Ashton Jeanty (LV)
“Ashton Jeanty. Listen, I’m a huge fan of Jeanty and his skillset. That said, he is currently being drafted at RB5 and ADP10. That’s an overpay for any rookie, especially one in this offense. The Raiders were the worst rushing team in the league last year, averaging under 80 YPG, nearly 12 yards less than any other team. Jeanty is a significant upgrade over the backs in this backfield last season, there is no doubt about that. That said, FantasyPros has the Las Vegas line ranked 22nd for the 2025 season. Jeanty will make some big plays. He will make the offensive line look better than it truly is. I just have a hard time believing that he will be a top-10 fantasy player in 2025. I know I’m in the minority on this take, but I’ll die on the hill that Jeanty is being drafted too high for his situation in Las Vegas.”
– Justin Elick (Daily Fantasy Circuit)
Omarion Hampton (LAC)
“I expect Omarion Hampton to be this year’s biggest fantasy bust. He has strong draft capital and lands in a run-heavy scheme under Greg Roman, but Roman favors committees over workhorses. No Ravens running back topped 45% of snaps in 2021 or 2022, and Edwards saw a 35.3% share in L.A. With Najee Harris likely to take a big portion of touches, Hampton’s path to a true lead is shaky. At RB14, you’re paying for a bellcow back that probably won’t happen.”
– Kyle Zeigler (Fantasy In Frames)
Aaron Jones (MIN)
“Aaron Jones. Jones did well as the Vikings starter last year, his first with the team. He was 15th overall in fantasy running back scoring and had 1,546 total yards. He did have just two 100-yard rushing games, though. And he made few plays after contact, breaking just 11 tackles. Jones is 30 years old and now has Jordan Mason to split the work with at running back. Things are trending the wrong way for him at this stage of his career. I want a player on the upswing – not the downswing.”
– Jeff Paur (RTSports)
Breece Hall (NYJ)
“Breece Hall. Jets head coach Aaron Glenn has been telling us all offseason that the Jets are going to use three running backs. We’re drafting a committee back on a team that probably isn’t going to score many touchdowns as a high-end RB2? Woof.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
“Breece Hall is still the “starter” in New York, but he’s going to be in more of a timeshare than people think. Braelon Allen is being drafted about 12 rounds after Hall and could end up being in a near 50/50 split. I can see Hall’s fantasy production mainly coming from receiving work, but how often are the Jets expected to pass? With Justin Fields and Allen also involved in the run game, Hall’s fantasy production won’t warrant his current ADP.”
– Rich Piazza (Fantasy Shed)
Wide Receiver Busts
Tyreek Hill (MIA)
“Tyreek Hill’s 2024 season was his least productive since his rookie year, with efficiency metrics like yards per route run and YAC plummeting. At 31 years old and coming off wrist surgery, Hill may be hitting the dreaded age cliff for speed-reliant receivers. Add in a contract standoff, trade rumors, and the rise of Jaylen Waddle, and Hill carries more risk than ever. Even if healthy, his ADP in the top two rounds assumes he’s still a WR1. In reality, he looks more like a volatile WR2 with downside.”
– Justin Sablich (5th Down Fantasy)
“Tyreek Hill, WR MIA. I don’t like how things are trending offensively in Miami. There are still concerns about Tua’s ability to be a difference-maker at QB, Tyreek Hill is now 31 and coming off a very inconsistent 2024 campaign, and his mental state and enthusiasm remain suspect. It won’t surprise me at all if Hill is traded mid-season or, worse, if Hill abruptly retires. I’ve moved on from Hill in all leagues and I’m not looking back.”
– Jeff Haverlack (Dynasty League Football)
“Tyreek Hill is smellier than a bologna sandwich in the sun. Figuratively, of course, but both are equally cooked. Last season, we witnessed the infamous fantasy cliff for aging receivers. Hill’s numbers had halved from the season prior, visibly losing a step. Miami is putting “all publicity is good publicity” to the test, making headlines for all the wrong reasons. Whether it’s Hill calling out personnel decisions or their running backs picking up injuries, the 2025 season is not off to a good start for the Dolphins. Hill is virtually off my draft board for 2025.”
– Ellis Johnson (FantasyPros)
“Drafting Tyreek Hill as a top-15 wide receiver… even a top-20 wide receiver in 2025? Nope, count me out at that price tag. Hill took a substantial step back in 2024, even if we disregard his frustrations with the team, the trade demands, and his off-field issues. Last year, with Tua Tagovailoa under center (Weeks 8-16), Hill was the WR24 in fantasy points per game while ranking 39th in yards per route run and 34th in target share. Among 112 qualifying wide receivers overall last year, he was 28th in separation and 48th in route win rate, per Fantasy Points Data. The per-route metrics aren’t damning, but expecting him to continue to hum along as a strong mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside is too much in 2025. If Hill takes another step back, Jaylen Waddle will pass him in the passing pecking order. ”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“Tyreek Hill is going to be the biggest bust in fantasy football this season. Hill checks off every single red flag one could imagine. Declining efficiency (career low YAC in 2024) for a player entering his age-31 season. He has been nursing an oblique injury and has been trying to ‘rebuild’ his relationship with his QB Tua Tagovailoa. Even when he played with Tua last season, he was just the WR18 in PPG. It’s so easy to see how this completely flames out for Tyreek in Miami, and it wouldn’t be surprising to me if he gets traded at some point.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Tyreek Hill is a player that every fantasy manager should be staying away from. After a career-worst season a year ago, Hill is currently the WR12 in half-PPR ADP, not even a little discount for a player that managers hope rebounds. Factor in the unpredictability of a player who already asked for out after last season, what happens now if Miami gets off to a slow start? Will Tyreek ask for out again? There is simply way too much risk associated with Hill, who may have seen his best days already pass him by.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
“Tyreek Hill struggled in 2024, finishing WR21 overall and WR29 after Week 2. Was it a decline due to age or situational factors? If it were age, he is not younger. If the factors were situational, what has changed? The team situation is the same. His name has remained in trade rumors. He has been a fantasy stalwart, but betting on players to reverse potential age-related decline usually comes out as a loss.”
– Jeff Bell (Footballguys)
Chris Olave (NO)
“Chris Olave has the talent to be a top fantasy wide receiver, but the current situation in New Orleans sets him up to disappoint in 2025. The Saints haven’t even settled on a starting quarterback, and their two options both inspire little confidence in sustaining a reliable passing attack. That uncertainty under center makes it hard to trust Olave’s week-to-week production. Add in his concerning concussion history, and there’s a real risk he can’t stay on the field or deliver on his draft cost this season. In his draft range, I am seeking more reliable options.”
– Joe Beldner (The Fantasy Footballers)
“I’m a big fan of Chris Olave’s talent, but there are a lot of ways in which this doesn’t work out for fantasy. The concussion risks are real, and this Saints QB room is possibly the worst in football. Who gets excited about Tyler Shough & Spencer Rattler? You’ve also got a first-time head coach, and it would not be surprising at all to see this team in the mix for a top-10 pick yet again in 2026, as this team looks to potentially find its QB of the future in next year’s class.”
– Marc Shannep (Fantasy Knockout)
“Chris Olave is one of the most talented young receivers in the league, but his 2025 outlook comes with real risk. The Saints enter the season with a questionable quarterback situation, turning to rookie Tyler Shough in an offense that’s still finding its identity. Olave’s route running, separation, and hands are elite, but inconsistent target quality could limit his ceiling. The offense may struggle to sustain drives and generate red-zone chances, which caps his weekly upside. He’s also missed time in each of his first three seasons, including multiple concussions in 2024, making durability a growing concern.”
– Lawrence Iacona (Gridiron Experts)
DJ Moore (CHI)
“DJ Moore will be a massive bust this season if fantasy players draft him anywhere near his WR21 and 48.8 overall ADP. Many were afraid to draft him last year after the Bears added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze in the offseason. However, the former Maryland star finished the year as the WR16, averaging 11.1 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, the veteran will have even more target competition this season than last year after Chicago used their top two picks in the 2025 NFL Draft on Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III. More importantly, Moore has had a rocky offseason, reportedly having issues with Ben Johnson. Meanwhile, Odunze could break out and be the Bears’ No. 1 wide receiver in 2025, while Burden is a popular sleeper candidate. There are several wide receivers with a later ADP than Moore I would draft over him, including Courtland Sutton, Xavier Worthy, and Tetairoa McMillan.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“DJ Moore only topped 75 yards five times in 2024. He failed to reach 1000 yards and only recorded six touchdowns despite finishing tied for 12th with 140 targets. Moore finished with 98 receptions, which buoyed his fantasy production. Moore will have more competition for targets in 2025 as Rome Odunze is expected to play a bigger role in his second season. The Bears also took Luther Burden III in the second round and Colston Loveland in the first round expect to have impacts in their rookie seasons. Cole Kmet and D’Andre Swift also figure to be factored in the passing game as well. Moore will likely have a solid season, but I don’t think he’ll live up to his WR2 ADP.”
– Ryan Lester (Lesters Legends)
“The Chicago Bears offense will be this year’s biggest fantasy bust. Ben Johnson is installing a new scheme, the Erhardt-Perkins offense, which puts more of an onus on everyone to know the roles of all 11 players on any given play; last year, the Bears ran the West Coast offense, which only asks players to memorize their specific task. In time, the Erhardt-Perkins system will free up a QB like Caleb Williams to tap into his improvisational nature and, hopefully, become the first 4,000-yard passer in Bears’ history. However, as Rome Odunze said during training camp, “Ben’s offense isn’t something that you’re going to completely and totally understand in Year 1.” In terms of fantasy production, it’s likely to get worse before it gets better.”
– Brad Beatson (Bandit Fantasy Football)
Malik Nabers (NYG)
“Russell Wilson averaged just 225 passing yards and 1.45 touchdowns per game in 2024, and that was with an above-average offensive line. His top target, George Pickens, only managed to be WR43 in points per game. Now in 2025, Wilson is behind one of the six worst offensive lines in football, so how exactly is he supposed to support Malik Nabers as a top 5 fantasy receiver? I love Nabers’ talent, but how does he have more upside than Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, and Brian Thomas Jr.?”
– Lance Gandy (Tap Into Fantasy)
Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI)
“Marvin Harrison Jr. will be this year’s biggest fantasy bust, because he won’t make the 2nd year jump that many are projecting him to. While I still believe in the player, there are serious concerns that lead me to go in the other direction at his ADP of WR16. Many analysts expect his route usage to change drastically this season, but that is no guarantee, considering the OC remains the same. Kyler Murray has also proven to be inconsistent through his career, and with an elite tight end in Trey McBride demanding targets across from Marvin, you can count me out at the WR16 price tag this season.”
– Mike Romar (Self)
” I think Marvin Harrison will be this year’s biggest bust; from the standpoint of the massive (over) expectations the media and NFL executives and scouts have pushed on MHJ — when in reality he is a very limited WR talent. Football people got caught up in the hype and made him into something he’s not. You could see it on his scouting tape — he has a hard time separating and he doesn’t like physical play/coverage against him and is prone to drops against it, but has the occasional nice contested catch highlight (always contested because he cannot separate well)…that’s why we graded him not even in the top 5 WR prospects in the 2024 draft class, and that scouting is coming into the light/truth more and more as each game goes by. Harrison is OK/solid but has troubling flaws that emerged all last season. He’ll be OK/decent for Fantasy because they force him the ball a bunch, but he’ll never become that predicted ‘slam dunk’ WR1 that was supposed to dominate the NFL. He isn’t in the same stratosphere of talent as Nabers-McConkey-Thomas from the 2024 class.”
– R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metrics)
Ladd McConkey (LAC)
“Ladd McConkey was a player who pleasantly surprised me during his rookie season! He had a very successful rookie campaign with 1,149 yards and seven touchdowns. He was the best pass catcher on the team. This year, he is being drafted as the WR11, which sets him up to be a potential bust for fantasy owners who draft him early as their WR1. The biggest challenge to repeating is competition. Keenan Allen is coming back to the team, and even though he is 32 years old, he has a very successful history with Justin Herbert. The Chargers also have two young receivers in Tre Harris and KeAndre Lambert-Smith, who will demand targets. McConkey will still be an important part of the passing offense, but due to the additions to the team, he is set up to bust at his WR11 ranking.”
– Adam Dove (The Fantasy Couriers)
“Ladd McConkey. While it’s not automatic that Keenan Allen will take chunks out of McConkey’s production, the fact that Allen is there and still reliable enough puts a fantasy squeeze on the situation. Putting any single receiver with all the quality targets is risky for the Chargers. Quentin Johnston is a notorious red zone threat with only four targets or so per game, for example.”
– Richard Savill (Fantasy Six Pack)
Terry McLaurin (WAS)
“Terry McLaurin surprised us all and finished as the WR6 overall in 2024, but just WR14 per game. His production was drastically inflated by an unsustainable 11.1% touchdown rate, which was nearly double his career average (~5.5%). His target share (23.3%), receptions (82), and yardage were nearly identical to career norms, showing his spike was efficiency-driven, not volume-driven. Even if you take the touchdown surge at face value, he’s already missed significant camp time due to a contract “hold-in,” and historically, players coming off holdouts rarely hit their ceiling. With Deebo Samuel Sr.now in the mix and Washington’s red zone distribution likely shifting, banking on another top-10 finish is a risky proposition. At his WR19 ADP, you’re drafting him at his 2025 ceiling, and to quote Randy Jackson on this one, “That’s going to be a no for me, Dawg.””
– James Emrick-Wilson (The Armchair Sports Corner)
Garrett Wilson (NYJ)
“Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets – The Jets’ mediocre passing attack last season threw for 3,714 yards, ranking just 16th in the NFL, and Wilson managed only five Top-20 Half-PPR weeks with three games over 20 points. Now he’ll be catching passes from Justin Fields, whose career-high in passing yards is just 2,562. Fields’ WR1 that year in Chicago, DJ Moore, was a boom-or-bust option with as many 20+ point games as games under 4 points. That same inconsistency could follow Wilson, making him a risky draft pick at his current ADP.”
– Steve Bonham (Important Nonsense)
A.J. Brown (PHI)
“A.J. Brown – This is simply a matter of volume. Brown is without a doubt one of the best receivers in the league, but he plays in one of the most run-heavy offenses that had the fewest pass attempts in the NFL in 2024. Last year, Brown set a career high in catch percentage and had his highest yards per target since his rookie season. To live up to his lofty ADP, Brown would need to exceed career highs in rate metrics, something I am not counting on for the 28-year-old.”
– Michael Tomlin (Fantasy Six Pack)
Brian Thomas Jr. (JAC)
“I expect Brian Thomas Jr. to be the biggest fantasy “bust.” I think he’ll have a solid season, but I don’t buy him as WR8. Thomas Jr. finished as WR4 last year, but that was buoyed by a weak schedule and half of his touchdowns coming in a five-week span. I expect him to see some regression in the touchdown department, and with some better defenses on the horizon, he’ll be looked at as a “bust” by the end of the year thanks to his high ADP.”
– Trevor Land (FlurrySports)
Puka Nacua (LAR)
“Puka Nacua WR Los Angeles Rams — Of my list, Brock Purdy and Sam LaPorta are going to be the most underwhelming on the “bust” list. However, this is about expectations based on ADP cost, and that’s why it’s Nacua. Mathew Stafford is struggling with significant health issues, Kyren Williams emerged as a legitimate RB1 in 2024, and the Rams added an aging, but still effective, WR1-B in Davante Adams to the mix. I’m not down on Nacua’s skills; it’s his situation. No Stafford and the targets and effectiveness and efficiency tanks, and I see that scenario being not a slim possibility, but almost likely. If Stafford plays 12 games, I’ll be shocked, and with only 10-12 games from Stafford, I don’t see how Nacua justifies being a Top #15 pick, value-wise. Good is nice, but at No. 14, you need to be special, and Stafford’s health, the likelihood that Williams carries a HUGE workload in Stafford’s absence, while Adams vultures some red zone scores and valuable targets. I’m steering clear of Mr Nacua and his Bust potential.”
– Chris Mitchell (FantasyData)
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
“Without Ben Johnson, I think Amon-Ra St. Brown is the big loser. Jameson Williams would be the guy in Detroit these years; he would outperform St. Brown.”
– Alejandro Orellana (Estadio Fantasy)
Quarterback Busts
Patrick Mahomes (KC)
“People are still chasing Patrick Mahomes from years ago. He is being drafted as the QB6 right now. He was a top 6 QB twice in 2023 and three times in 2024. In 2024, Mahomes finished outside the top-12 QBs in over 50% of his games (11). Kelce is aging, Rice has a pending suspension, and this team can’t pass block. They have morphed into a defensive team and a ball control offense. Don’t draft Mahomes this early.”
– David Heilman (Sports Gambling Podcast Network)
“Patrick Mahomes – Before I explain myself, let me preface with acknowledging that Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks right now and possibly ever. With that said, I don’t think the Chiefs need him to be the highly productive fantasy quarterback he once was a few years ago. He’s currently being drafted near the 5th or 6th round as the QB6, which I think is too high. You can wait and draft a Brock Purdy or a Jared Goff in the 8th or 9th round and get similar production at the QB position. Bust is probably the wrong word to use for Mahomes, but I don’t believe he’s going to have the fantasy production his ADP warrants.”
– Joey Meinerding (Fantasy Dink)
Kyler Murray (ARI)
“The rushing upside of Kyler Murray keeps him palatable for fantasy managers, but his passing stats continue to underwhelm, and his 6.8 AYPA ranked 34th last year. Thus, Arizona struggled to generate chunk plays. By shrinking the field to Murray’s benefit, the Cardinals’ offense lacks scoring potential. The offensive line overperformed in 2024, and I foresee a regression to the mean this season. Ultimately, Murray doesn’t elevate his teammates: he never has, and he never will.”
– Matt De Lima (Athlon Sports)
Jared Goff (DET)
“Jared Goff comes crashing back down to Earth with the loss of Ben Johnson. Fantasy managers are selecting him as a late-round “value” to be their QB1. I wouldn’t count on him this year as more than a spot start, bye week replacement.”
– Stephen L Tomasin (IDP+)
Baker Mayfield (TB)
“Baker Mayfield had such an outlier season and is now being drafted as if that is his new floor. Mayfield had his highest yards per attempt at 7.9 of his career and had a touchdown percentage 1.6% higher than the best in his career. He also had the same number of rush attempts as his career averages, but gained more than double the yards. Everything about his profile is screaming regression while his OC leaves, Evans is now 32, his WR2 is likely starting the year on the PUP, and his left tackle is injured.”
– Justin Weigal (FantasySharks)
Joe Burrow (CIN)
“Joe Burrow – Despite having Burrow as my QB5, which is right around where he tends to go in drafts, I am weary of selecting him this season. The issue I take with him is that he is currently being drafted right around the four elite rushing quarterbacks – all of whom have much safer floors than Burrow. Last year, Burrow threw a league-leading 43 touchdowns; this year, his over/under is set for 33.5. If you kept all his stats the same as last year, but gave him 9.5 fewer passing TDs, he would have been the QB7 in points per game (4-point passing TD). Due to his lack of rushing, Burrow needs to have another extreme outlier touchdown season in order to pay off his ADP – something difficult to predict, making Burrow difficult to bank on high in fantasy drafts.”
– Charlie Sisian (The Fantasy DC)
Tight End Busts
Tyler Warren (IND)
“There are a few things that concern me about Tyler Warren’s value. His ADP is really high because people are chasing the “next big thing” this year. The hype is about finding the “next Brock Bowers.” I’ve seen this before, like with the search for the “next Deebo Samuel” a few years ago, and we’re still looking for that player. The players you’ll pass on to reach for Warren don’t justify the price.”
– Luke Renton (King Fantasy Sports)
Tucker Kraft (GB)
“Tucker Kraft is my biggest bust of the fantasy season. People are riding the highs from last year without realizing they need to pay attention to the present. The Packers added a first round wide receiver while we also have the return of Luke Musgrave, an athletic tight end in his own. He still has to share with Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Matthew Golden, and eventually Christian Watson. Green Bay ran the ball at the third-highest clip (50.69%), which means this is a run-heavy team with too many cooks in the kitchen for a clear second passing attack.”
– Joe Pepe (Beyond The Gridiron)
Travis Kelce (KC)
“Drafting Travis Kelce in 2025 is a bet that you can capture one last middling season before fading into the Swiftset. We already saw glimpses of that end last year: 3.7PPG in three games prior to Rashee Rice’s injury. Career lows in Y/RR and YAC/REC. Kelce produced TE7 PPG numbers after Rice’s injury, but is no longer efficient enough to be the quick-game focal point. Scoop Kelce off waivers if Rashee Rice‘s suspension comes in 2025, but save yourself from being the manager who holds onto the name too long.”
– Seth Miller (Crossroads Fantasy Football)
Evan Engram (DEN)
“I could not be more out on Evan Engram. He’s the TE8 in ADP, going in the 7th round, yet there are several tight ends going rounds later that I prefer straight up over Engram. I worry about his role as a full-time tight end, as he’s a subpar blocker and has been splitting snaps/routes with the 1s in preseason alongside Adam Trautman. He’s also not some elite receiving talent by any means, as he finished just 23rd among TEs in 1D/RR rate, and near dead last in missed tackles forced per reception. Combine a middling talent at receiver with a part-time route share, and I have no idea how he returns value at cost.”
– Jake Maraia (FF Dataroma)
Expert Bust Picks
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