We’re now past Labor Day in the 2025 MLB season and several of the high-profile awards look to be wrapped up right now, barring something unforeseen in the final few weeks. The American League Rookie of the Year, for example, will be won by Athletics slugger Nick Kurtz.Â
Over on the National League side, however, there’s a battle at the top right now between at least three players.
Here are the odds to win NL Rookie of the Year, courtesy of DraftKings.
- Drake Baldwin, Braves, -110
- Cade Horton, Cubs, +130
- Isaac Collins, Brewers, +450
- Matt Shaw, Cubs, +4500
- AgustÃn RamÃrez, Marlins, +6000
- Caleb Durbin, Brewers, +10000
- Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers, +10000
- Jakob Marsee, Marlins, +10000
First off, how about the concentration here with three teams having seven of the top eight? And yet, it’s a Braves player who’s leading the way.Â
Let’s zero in on the top three.Â
Drake Baldwin, C, Braves, -110
The backstop has now played in 101 games and amassed 2.6 WAR on both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. He’s hitting .283/.356/.462 with 12 doubles, 15 homers, 62 RBI and 43 runs. He doesn’t play every day but he has swung a good bat pretty much all season. He is 5 for his last 9 with a home run right now.Â
Baldwin isn’t on a contending team while the two other strong challengers here are in the playoff hunt, including one from the best team in baseball, at present. Sometimes that matters. It didn’t last season when Paul Skenes from the Pirates won the award over Jackson Merrill of a playoff team in the Padres, but Skenes feels like an exception. Baldwin doesn’t have his cachet.
Cade Horton, SP, Cubs, +130
Horton might end up being the prize of this rookie class, but has he been up long enough? He’s only racked up 1.5 WAR at FanGraphs; it’s only 1.1 at Baseball Reference. He’s 9-4 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 81 strikeouts in 98 â…” innings. That’s a low workload for a starting pitcher looking to pull in some hardware.Â
Horton is trending upward, though, in rather steep fashion. He’s 6-1 with a 0.86 ERA in his last eight starts. He’s only given up more than one run in one of those starts and that was at Coors Field. And he still only gave up two runs in five innings. The Cubs have won six of his last seven starts and given how much he’s solidified their rotation through uncertainty in several other spots, he could well get a narrative boost in the voting.Â
For those curious, the lowest innings total from a Rookie of the Year starting pitcher is 133 (Skenes, last year). The next lowest would be Jacob deGrom’s 140 â…“ in 2014. If Horton stays on regular rest and makes the rest of his starts, that’s five more outings. Let’s say he averages six innings per start. That would get him to 128 â…”. Is that enough?
Isaac Collins, OF, Brewers, +450
Collins has racked up 2.7 WAR already and has been a very valuable member of the team with the best record in baseball by several games. He’s started mostly in left field, but also in right field, at second base and as designated hitter. He’s hitting .276/.373/.426 (124 OPS+) with 19 doubles, three triples, eight homers, 51 RBI, 51 runs and 16 stolen bases.Â
He has seen a downturn in his numbers, though, in the last few weeks. In his last 21 games, Collins is hitting .217/.300/.391.Â
Then again, Collins has been clutch. He’s hit .318 with a .482 slugging percentage with runners in scoring position. He’s hit .375 with a .575 slugging with runners in scoring position and two outs. In “high leverage” situations, he’s hit .361/.440/.528.Â
If there are voters out there attaching a “value” component to the vote, it seems that the clutch stats for Collins might be of interest.Â
Overall, though, it seems that this is a three-horse race that is yet undetermined and what we see the rest of the way will largely decide the winner. Will either of the two hitters finish with a hot streak and close things down? If not, will Horton have enough workload for the voting body to win this thing? Stay tuned.