Breakout
Candidate: Connor
Zary, C/LW/RW
Zary enters
a contract season where he’s shown flashes of having top-six chops. Through 117
career games, he’s scored 27 goals, 61 points and averaging 1.72 shots per
game. Between Martin Pospisil, Adam Klapka and Zary, all of whom have taken shifts
on the top line, Zary possesses the most upside on offense. If he can stay
healthy, a 20-goal, 40-point season is easily attainable. Among Flames forwards
with at least 500 TOI at 5-on-5, Zary ranked in the top five in nearly all
possession metrics.
The issue
is that Zary’s offensive ceiling isn’t very high, probably topping out as a
second-line forward and clearly behind Coronato. His shot volume isn’t
particularly notable and offers few peripherals, and there are a lot of moving
parts in the Flames’ lineup heading into the season.
It’s
possible Zary plays all over the lineup all season, depending which of their
young forwards perform the best on a nightly basis, and will likely play PP2
with Frost and Coronato getting preferred minutes with Kadri and Huberdeau on
PP1. If Zary’s contract situation is not resolved before the start of the
season, it could also hamper his ability to get off to a strong start.
Buy Low
Candidate: Yegor
Sharangovich, C/LW/RW
This is an obvious
call. The Flames have invested a lot of years and dollars into ‘Sharky’ and
expect him to have more bite on offense. A decline in both shot volume and
shooting percentage – both of which should bounce back for someone who has a
very good wrist shot – were big reasons why he scored 14 fewer goals from the
previous season.
He was also
inconsistent, and uninspired play forced Ryan Huska to try and get his game
going by playing him in all three forward positions. Call it an off-year for a
young player who’s already scored 101 goals in five seasons. Sharangovich
should go undrafted in most leagues and he’s worth keeping an eye on the waiver
wire for 25-goal potential.
Riser: Matt Coronato, RW
This is
another easy call because the Flames currently don’t have a forward with a
higher ceiling. (Cole Reschny is still at least a few more years away). Asides
from Kadri, Coronato is the most likely to score 30 goals based on his
increasing shot volume, ice time and role.
Does he
have a chance at 40? Yes… one day, and probably not this coming season. Coronato’s long-term extension means he’s sticking around, and if the Flames are betting big on his potential, fantasy managers in keeper leagues can sleep a little easier doing so as well. Fantasy mangers who want to pick up some
high-upside scoring in the middle-late rounds should target Coronato, who has a high
floor as the Flames’ undisputed top right winger. He’s projected to score 52 points
according to the THN Yearbook & Fantasy Guide.
Faller: Joel Farabee, LW/RW
I liked
Farabee’s game when he first broke into the league but it’s hard to get excited
about him as he enters his seventh season. He’s scored 20 goals just twice in
his career on modest volume and isn’t often the first choice on the power play.
He scored
just three goals and six points in 31 games with the Flames and, even a
reversion to his career shooting percentage, it’s hard to envision him scoring
more than 50 points with very few peripherals for added fantasy value. Zary,
Klapka and Pospisil all seem more likely to skate top-six minutes than Farabee.
All
stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeyviz.com, allthreezones.com,
hockey-reference.com, eliteprospects.com unless otherwise noted.