MLB picks, best bets: Mets bats heat up, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper end regular season on a high

Hello and a tip to the cap to all fellow baseball fans on this fine Friday. It is the last one of the regular season and we’re going to try and finish hot after a 2-0 day last week. The postseason awaits and we’ll be running there with full pockets. Onward! 

Lines courtesy of DraftKings

Mets over 4.5 runs (-105) 

The Mets’ bats are inconsistent but generally good, despite the struggles of the team at large. They’ve averaged 4.95 runs per game this month and just scored 20 runs in three games against the Cubs in Wrigley Field. 

Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara gets the assignment Friday and while he’s been pretty good of late — a 2.70 ERA in his last seven starts — I still can’t fully trust him. We could pare down the arbitrary endpoint to say he has a 4.12 ERA in September, after all, and the Mets just saw him on Aug. 31. He shut them down on that date, but I like them getting another look at him within a month. 

I also just like how the offense looks right now. Plus, Juan Soto, Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte and Francisco Lindor all have good career numbers against Alcantara. 

Aaron Judge over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (+107)

In sticking with the concept of hitter familiarity, the Yankees saw Trevor Rogers of the Orioles last week. The lefty was brilliant for six scoreless innings, allowing only one hit and two walks with seven strikeouts. Judge struck out looking twice before lining out to left field. Generally speaking, the more looks a hitter gets at a pitcher, the more comfortable he becomes. The lineout goes with this theory here. 

Plus, Judge is really locked in right now, having gone 20 for his last 44 (.455) with two doubles, seven home runs, 11 RBI and 19 runs in his last 14 games. 

I like Judge, obviously, but the odds are shorter than +200 so we’ll go elsewhere. I also really like Soto in the Mets game, but we’ll diversify the portfolio a bit more. Did you know Harper only had nine home runs entering July? And 10 at the All-Star break? He’s hit 17 in 61 games since. The Phillies face Joe Ryan and what’s left of the Twins at home Friday evening. Harper has hit .297 with a .563 slugging percentage at home and has 17 of his 27 homers against righties. Ryan is a good pitcher, but susceptible to the bomb. He gave up four homers last time out and has allowed 16 in 319 at-bats against left-handed hitters this season. 

Futures play: Yankees win AL East +140

The Blue Jays and Yankees are tied for first in the AL East right now with three games to play. The Blue Jays have the tiebreaker, but still, the Jays don’t have great vibes right now after having lost six of their last eight. The Rays looking to play spoiler won’t be an easy assignment. I don’t necessarily think the Yankees have it easy with three home games against the Orioles, but it’s easier and the Yankees are playing really well right now (they’ve won eight of nine). I like the plus money on this one.