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Eric Karabell
Each week in the NFL is its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true … don’t be surprised!
NOTE: All mention of fantasy points is for PPR formats, unless otherwise mentioned.
Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase was the No. 1 pick in most ESPN drafts this year, coming off a season in which he caught 127 passes for 1,708 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns. He was the top flex-eligible scorer in PPR formats, second overall only to Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. However, awesome QB Joe Burrow threw every one of Cincinnati’s passes for the 2024 season. He might not throw another this season.
Don’t be surprised if … Chase remains the No. 1 player in fantasy football
Backup QB Jake Browning has been in this situation before. It was 2023, his first season with the Bengals, years after he led the Washington Huskies in the Pac-12 (look it up, it was a legit conference). Browning finished sixth in the 2016 Heisman Trophy voting. He tossed 43 touchdown passes. He played in the Peach Bowl. He took over for an injured Burrow during the Week 11 game at Baltimore and was a top-10 fantasy QB in five of the final six weeks, averaging 20 fantasy points per game. Browning should not be overwhelmed.
Oddly enough, Chase was not overly productive during the Browning games, though he lit up the Jacksonville Jaguars for 11 catches, 149 yards and a touchdown in Week 13. Some will use this seven-game period when Chase had only one big game as proof that he no longer belongs in the WR1 conversation at all. I don’t believe it. I left Chase at the very top in this week’s rest-of-season rankings. We can find potential blemishes with other top WRs and their QBs, too. Did Chase score 403 points because of Burrow, or because he is unstoppable? Let’s call it a combination of factors. Don’t underestimate Chase … or Browning.
Other QB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:
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Los Angeles Chargers starter Justin Herbert has the look of a top-10 fantasy QB yet again, but I still think this Jim Harbaugh-led offense wants to run the football considerably more than it has so far. Herbert finished ninth in fantasy QB scoring as a rookie in 2020 and second to Josh Allen his second season, but it is tough for Herbert to score 300 points while playing little role as a runner. Now is the time to get rookie RB Omarion Hampton (and veteran Najee Harris), not shy away. I still don’t think Herbert passes for 4,000 yards or more than 25 touchdowns.
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There were times last season that I predicted Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts would finish with more rushing touchdowns than passing ones, which is quite preposterous for a QB in this era. He ended up with 18 passing scores and 14 rushing. Hurts will throw more in the coming weeks. He and his WRs are too talented, and the offense will not stay this unbalanced. Game flow and opponent dictated strategy. Still, do not expect Hurts to eclipse 3,000 passing yards or 20 TD passes, though. Ending up with 17 rushing TDs and 16 passing would be kind of wild, but it might happen.
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I don’t think Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams played so badly in the Week 2 demolition loss to the Detroit Lions. I bet he plays even better this week against the Dallas Cowboys. Yes, a borderline QB1 option still lurks here. Don’t give up on Williams or his new No. 1 WR Rome Odunze. The narrative should alter soon.
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Should fantasy managers rank Odunze ahead of Moore?
Eric Karabell breaks down Rome Odunze’s nice start to the season and whether fantasy managers should consider him over DJ Moore.
Don’t be surprised if … Denver Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins finally rushes for 1,000 yards
Dobbins was a late signing this summer, more than a month after the NFL draft, and most fantasy managers probably gave this transaction little thought. RJ Harvey was a second-round pick, full of potential after delivering massive college numbers at UCF, including 25 touchdowns last season. Harvey might be great. He busted loose for a 50-yard run in Week 1. However, he has 28 rushing yards on his other 10 carries through two games. Dobbins is the better player right now.
The Broncos saw Dobbins, then with the Chargers, run 25 times for 96 yards and a touchdown in Week 6 last season. I think they want that version of Dobbins, volume and all, especially since QB Bo Nix looks like a turnover machine. Dobbins rushed for 905 yards and nine touchdowns last season over 13 games. Based on his unfortunate injury history, there is considerable risk he cannot play in all 17 games, but let’s hope he plays enough. It is early, but Dobbins is on pace for 1,190 rushing yards.
Other RB thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:
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I wouldn’t trade away Las Vegas Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty yet. He hasn’t had any room to run so far, but the volume is only going to rise. This offense must get Jeanty out into space and use him that way. Five catches for 3 yards is an embarrassment. Get this man the football! A big Week 3 performance against the Washington Commanders is pending.
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New England Patriots rookie TreVeyon Henderson maintains a bright future, but veteran Rhamondre Stevenson is a superior pass blocker. As a result, the Patriots will play Stevenson more until he gets hurt or starts fumbling again, with each scenario in play based on recent seasons. When healthy, Stevenson is a bit underrated. Remember, he caught 69 passes in 2022. The Patriots really should present all the volume he can handle until he can’t handle it.
Don’t be surprised if … Zay Flowers remains a WR1 option
The Baltimore Ravens star enters Week 3 with 43.0 points, fifth among wide receivers, and what is stunning is how much more productive he has been than his pass-catching teammates. QB Lamar Jackson has thrown 48 passes. Flowers has been targeted on 20 of them, hauling in seven in each game. He also has three rushing attempts, after averaging 8.5 rushing attempts his first two seasons. It seems quite unsustainable that Flowers will continue to earn 42% of the team’s targets, but what about 30%? That would work!
Jackson threw 474 passes last season, 16th among passers. Remove Burrow, who threw 652 times, and the No. 2 QB for pass attempts was Aaron Rodgers, with 110 more than Jackson. That’s not that big of an edge over 17 games. Jackson can support Flowers as a top-10 fantasy WR, even if the target share is more like 30-35%. Last season, Flowers was targeted only 24% of the time. This year’s Ravens, however, are different. DeAndre Hopkins won’t approach 100 targets. Rashod Bateman never has. Flowers tied for 20th in WR targets last season. I think he can reach the top 10 there, too.
Meanwhile, TE Mark Andrews has two receptions on four targets so far. I featured Andrews in the Do Not Draft article because there was obvious touchdown regression coming, after he scored 11 times on only 55 catches. I didn’t think he also would regress to something like 40 catches and 500 receiving yards, too. This is happening, and it is why Andrews is among the most-dropped tight ends. The pending return of TE Isaiah Likely won’t help, either.
Other WR/TE thoughts that shouldn’t surprise:
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What I wrote earlier about Chase maintaining expected production works for Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson as well. You don’t have to rely on the QB in fantasy to expect big things from the top WR. Jefferson is special, and let’s remember that Jordan Addison returns from suspension in Week 4. That helps Jefferson, too. It doesn’t matter who plays QB, though in this case, Carson Wentz is at least experienced and boasts the skills to thrive. Ignore what happened in Week 17 last season when Wentz started for the Kansas City Chiefs and lost 38-0 at Denver. That was not on him.
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I like Houston’s schedule for the next two weeks and expect WR Nico Collins to produce bigger numbers, but we should be prepared for his move out of WR1 range. I was wrong about the Texans having a better offensive line. It looks offensive, all right, and no better than last season when QB C.J. Stroud ran for his life (proverbially, not literally). Stroud hasn’t had time to find Collins downfield. There is constant pressure. Collins averages a mere 5.5 yards per target, and it should have been much better against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.