Fantasy playbook: NFL Week 6 Shadow Reports, lineup locks and projected scores

Welcome to The Playbook for Week 6, which kicks off Thursday with the Eagles at the Giants.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.

All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

DEN-NYJ | ARI-IND | LAC-MIA | NE-NO | CLE-PIT | DAL-CAR
SEA-JAX | LAR-BAL | TEN-LV | CIN-GB | SF-TB | DET-KC | BUF-ATL | CHI-WAS

Projected score: Broncos 29, Jets 18

Lineup locks: Breece Hall, J.K. Dobbins, Garrett Wilson, Courtland Sutton

Fantasy scoop: Mason Taylor exploded for career-high marks in targets (12), catches (nine), yardage (67) and fantasy points (17.7) on Sunday. The second-round rookie has seen his target number increase each week of the season and he’s now produced 65-plus yards in consecutive games. In fact, he leads the Jets in targets (19) during the span. Taylor’s connection with Justin Fields has allowed consecutive top-12 fantasy outings, but he has yet to find the end zone and may not do that often in the Jets’ run-heavy scheme. The rookie is best viewed as a good TE2 against a strong Denver defense that has allowed a league-low 53% catch rate to tight ends. No tight end has reached 12 fantasy points in a game against the Broncos this season.

Shadow Report: Sauce Gardner is a strong bet to shadow Sutton in London this week. The Jets’ standout corner has already traveled with DK Metcalf (12.3 fantasy points in the game), Mike Evans (13.3) and George Pickens (13.7). Gardner is one of the best in the business and has clearly limited the statistical ceiling of several standout receivers, but New York has struggled against the pass overall (second-highest EPA allowed), which has allowed secondary receivers such as Ryan Flournoy, Calvin Austin III and Emeka Egbuka to deliver 14-plus fantasy points against them. Expectations for Sutton should be lowered a bit, whereas Denver’s secondary receivers (Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims Jr., Pat Bryant) get a boost.

Shadow Report: Wilson’s Week 6 ranking may seem low, but that’s because he can expect to see Pat Surtain II shadow coverage this week. Perhaps the league’s best corner, Surtain has traveled with Calvin Ridley (6.7 fantasy points in the game), Michael Pittman Jr. (8.0), Quentin Johnston (14.9), Ja’Marr Chase (7.3) and A.J. Brown (9.3) this season. That works out to 9.2 fantasy PPG. Denver’s overall pass defense has been as good as expected, sitting fourth best in EPA against the pass, having allowed just 6.6 yards per target to receivers (second lowest). Wilson should remain in lineups, but his bust risk is higher than usual.

Over/under: 46.7 (10th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 86% (2nd highest)

Projected score: Colts 27, Cardinals 19

Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Pittman Jr., Trey McBride, Tyler Warren

Fantasy scoop: Week 5 gave us our first look at the Arizona backfield sans both James Conner and Trey Benson. Michael Carter was the clear lead back, pacing the RB room in snaps (38), carries (18), targets (five) and routes (19). Emari Demercado (17 snaps, three carries, zero targets, eight routes) and Bam Knight (10 snaps, four carries, one targets, four routes) were the secondary options. Carter (73 yards on 23 touches) wasn’t particularly effective, but he did find the end zone (as did Knight). Carter’s heavy usage is enough to make him a flex option, though he’ll have his hands full this week against a Colts defense that has yet to allow a running back more than 16.5 fantasy points this season.

Shadow Report: Expect Charvarius Ward to shadow Harrison, as he did against Calvin Ridley (3.7 fantasy points in the game) in Week 3 and Davante Adams (15.6) in Week 4. The Colts have been effective against the pass (sixth-lowest EPA allowed), but they’ve also faced substantial WR target volume (seventh-most targets), which has led to them sitting in the top six in WR catches, yards, TDs and fantasy points allowed. Harrison’s tough matchup figures to be offset by added volume in a game in which Arizona is likely to trail. He remains a WR3 option.

Over/under: 45.9 (11th highest)
Win probability: Colts 78% (4th highest)

Projected score: Chargers 26, Dolphins 24

Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, De’Von Achane, Quentin Johnston, Jaylen Waddle, Keenan Allen, Ladd McConkey

Fantasy scoop: Darren Waller posted a 5-78-1 receiving line on five targets Sunday, one week after delivering a 3-27-2 line on four targets in his Dolphins debut. Though his targets barely increased, Waller did see a huge boost in playing time, from 25% of the snaps in Week 4 to 60% in Week 5. With Tyreek Hill done for the season, Waller appears to be Miami’s No. 3 pass-catcher behind Waddle (nine targets on Sunday) and Achane (seven). Waller’s durability remains a concern, but as long as he’s on the field, he’ll be on the fantasy radar. Consider him a fringe TE1 in a tough Week 6 battle against a Chargers defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

Fantasy scoop: With both Omarion Hampton joining Najee Harris on injured reserve, the Chargers will turn to Hassan Haskins and Kimani Vidal to lead the backfield. Both have limited experience playing a significant offensive role. Haskins entered 2025 with 60 carries and 16 targets in 33 career games, whereas Vidal handled 43 carries and eight targets in 10 games as a sixth-round rookie last season, maxing out at eight touches in a game. Neither has been particularly effective (career 3.1 YPC for Haskins and 3.7 for Vidal).

Following Hampton’s departure Sunday, Haskins played seven straight snaps, but then Vidal stepped in and handled 12 of the final 13 plays of the game. This is a situation best avoided in fantasy, especially considering how little the team targets its backs. But if we’re choosing one of the two, Haskins gets the nod, as he’s the better bet to lead the way in carries and goal-line work.

Over/under: 50.2 (7th highest)
Win probability: Chargers 60% (13th highest)

Projected score: Patriots 23, Saints 19

Lineup locks: Chris Olave, Stefon Diggs

Fantasy scoop: It’s been a while since this has been the case, but it’s tough to categorize Alvin Kamara as a “lineup lock” right now. Kamara remains New Orleans’ top back, but he’s scored just one touchdown (Week 1), has cleared 72 yards only once (Week 2 … on 27 touches) and is averaging a mere 11.4 fantasy PPG. Kamara sits 11th among backs in carries, though his target share is down from years past and he sits 10th in receptions. That’s extremely low for a player who has never finished a season lower than fifth in the category.

Perhaps most concerning is that Kendre Miller actually paced the team with 10 carries in Week 5 (Kamara had eight). Maybe that will flip back in Kamara’s direction in Week 6, but it’s also possible the 30-year-old’s workload will be limited to some extent. Both backs are set for a tough matchup against a Patriots defense that has allowed 3.2 yards per carry (third lowest) and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Kamara is a flex, and Miller belongs on benches.

Over/under: 41.8 (13th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 65% (7th highest)

Projected score: Steelers 23, Browns 16

Lineup locks: Jaylen Warren, Quinshon Judkins, DK Metcalf

Fantasy scoop: With Charles Tillman (IR) sidelined in Week 5, both David Njoku (6-67-1 on eight targets) and Harold Fannin Jr. (4-13-1 on five targets) delivered double-digit fantasy points. Njoku set season highs in all categories (including snap and target share) and finds himself back on the fantasy radar now that Dillon Gabriel has replaced Joe Flacco under center. Some caution is required here, however, as Njoku entered the game averaging 6.7 fantasy PPG with zero TDs. He’s a fringe TE1 against the Steelers.

Fannin, meanwhile, found the end zone for the first time Sunday, hasn’t cleared six targets in a game since Week 1 and has fallen short of 30 yards in three straight. He’s on the field a ton (72% snap share) but is likely to max out as a TE2 as long as Njoku is in the fold.

Over/under: 38.8 (Lowest)
Win probability: Steelers 72% (5th highest)

Projected score: Cowboys 28, Panthers 28

Lineup locks: Javonte Williams, George Pickens, Tetairoa McMillan, Jake Ferguson

Fantasy scoop: With Chuba Hubbard sidelined last week, Rico Dowdle paced all running backs with 32.4 fantasy points. The ex-Cowboy exploded for career highs in rushing yards (206) and scrimmage yards (234), while also finding the end zone for the second time this season (he recorded only two rushing TDs on 235 carries all of last season). Dowdle played 68% of the snaps, compared to 18% for both DeeJay Dallas and Trevor Etienne. Dowdle’s impressive day may lead to a larger role at the expense of Hubbard, but he’ll be long shot for consistent RB2/flex production unless his running mate misses more action.

Should Hubbard remain out this week, Dowdle will be a solid RB2 option in a revenge game and good matchup against a Dallas defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. Both Josh Jacobs and Breece Hall cleared 150 yards against Dallas over the last two weeks.

Shadow Report: New week, same story. We’re upgrading McMillan and the Carolina wide receivers against Dallas’ struggling pass defense. The Cowboys have allowed the most yards, TDs (10) and fantasy points (including the most to the perimeter), as well as the highest YPT (10.4) and catch rate (74%) to the position. Perhaps Dallas’ pass defense will improve with Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland nearing full health, but in the meantime, we can feel comfortable upgrading McMillan and viewing Xavier Legette as a Week 6 deep sleeper.

Over/Under: 56.1 (Highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 52% (Lowest)

Projected score: Jaguars 25, Seahawks 24

Lineup locks: Travis Etienne Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Brian Thomas Jr.

Fantasy scoop: Sam Darnold completed 28 of 34 passes for 341 yards, four TDs and 1 INT on Sunday. The big game produced 27.6 fantasy points (third most among QBs) and his first top-eight fantasy outing of the season, but it was not enough to vault him into the QB1 discussion moving forward. Darnold entered the week with one weekly finish better than 18th (ninth in Week 3) and a total of five touchdowns. Darnold may continue to do some damage through the air (he sits seventh among QBs in passing yards), but he’s operating in a run-first offense (he’s 21st in pass attempts) and has been a nonfactor with his legs (38 yards on three carries). Darnold shouldn’t be near lineups against Jacksonville.

Over/under: 49.3 (8th highest)
Win probability: Jaguars 53% (14th highest)

Projected score: Rams 31, Ravens 20

Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Zay Flowers

Fantasy scoop: Looking for a Week 6 QB streamer? Matthew Stafford is your guy. The NFL’s leading passer generally maxes out as a fringe QB1 due to his rushing limitation (-4 yards this season), but he’s set up with an elite matchup against an injury-ruined Ravens defense that has allowed the most passing TDs (13) and sits in the top three in yards and fantasy points to QBs. It helps that Stafford is red-hot right now, having thrown for 375-plus yards and three TDs in consecutive games (25-plus fantasy points in both).

Shadow Report: The injury-plagued Ravens defense continues to struggle against receivers, having allowed at least 50 fantasy points to three of the five WR units it has faced. That includes a season-high 60.2 fantasy points to Houston’s wideouts in Week 5. The shorthanded Ravens were without Chidobe Awuzie and Marlon Humphrey for that game, and those players remain in doubt for Week 6. Baltimore, which has allowed the most TDs (10) and second-most fantasy points to WRs, as well as the fourth-highest EPA against the pass, presents a terrific opportunity for Nacua and Adams to produce at an elite level.

Over/under: 50.3 (5th highest)
Win probability: Rams 62% (10th highest)

Projected Score: Raiders 22, Titans 19