C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans are hitting their stride after a bumpy start to the season, and they’ll be well-rested coming off a bye as they head into Seattle.
Photo By – Imagn Images. Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7).
As an athlete and a sports bettor, you best believe I’m superstitious.
That’s why my motto has always been, “don’t celebrate until the confetti pops”.
Sticking to that mantra can be tough in this business. The better my bets are doing, the more eyeballs are on my weekly content.
But drawing that attention often means tooting your own horn before all the cash is counted — spitting in the face of my superstitious side.
Just a few weeks ago, NFL selections from our podcast “The Sharp 600” headed into Sunday night with a perfect record and three more bets on the board for the prime-time game.
And after unabashedly promoting our perfection all over social media, all three SNF wagers lost.
With that in mind, I’m going to tread lightly when singing the successes of my “NFL Underdogs” column bets. After a 0-3 ATS start to the schedule, I’m doing… better.
I’ll let you do the math and avoid any cosmic donkey kicks when it comes to my best NFL picks for Week 7.
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 10-8 ATS +0.88 units
NFL Week 7 predictions and picks
New Orleans Saints (+5.5) vs Chicago Bears
Best bet: Saints +5.5
(-110 at bet365)
Three turnovers from the Commanders were just enough to gift wrap a win for the Chicago Bears on Monday night.
Chicago still allowed 329 yards, 5.5 yards per play, and 22 first downs to Washington, which was playing without its two top receivers.
That trio of takeaways lifts the Bears to a dozen on the season, and those “game-changing plays” skew the defensive metrics for this team. After giving up a collective 79 points in the first two games, Chicago sits No. 6 in EPA allowed per play since Week 3.
Like suddenly switching deodorants, something doesn’t smell right.
If you erase the takeaways — which carry a lot of variance — Chicago’s defensive measurements put this group as a bottom-5 stop unit, sinking in stats like yards allowed per play and opponents’ points per drive.
Although the New Orleans Saints’ defense is right there in the basement with Chicago, the unit is getting better as the season progresses.
New Orleans was on its heels early versus New England on Sunday, yet stiffened for only three points against in the second half. The week before, NOLA shut out the Giants in the final 30 minutes for a 26-14 win.
The Saints’ offense is also on the up-and-up. New head coach Kellen Moore has found his groove with the playbook in the last two outings (628 total yards), and if not for a 1-for-5 flop in the red zone, power ratings would be much kinder to NOLA.
Chicago, which is playing on a short week, is a much easier nut to crack inside the 20-yard line. It sits 24th in defensive RZ touchdown rate (66.67%) and 29th in touchdowns allowed per game.
Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) vs Los Angeles Chargers
Best bet: Colts +1.5
(-110 at bet365)
We knew the wheels would wobble on the Indianapolis Colts after such a surprising start to the season.
Indianapolis got a little fat and happy after enjoying a 40 burger against Las Vegas in Week 5, nearly letting former QB Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals steal a win in Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday.
It was a chin check for the Colts, who travel to Southern California for just their third road game of the year in Week 7. Granted, the crowd in SoFi Stadium will feature its share of horseshoes.
Indianapolis can play a little defense on offense, considering the way the Los Angeles Chargers are rolling out the red carpet to opposing running backs.
Los Angeles has allowed its last four foes to average almost 145 rushing yards, including 137 gains on the ground from the Dolphins in a lucky 29-27 win at Miami in Week 6. Despite three turnovers from the Fins, the Bolts still needed a wild sack-shedding 42-yard catch-and-run to set up the game-winning field goal in the dying seconds.
Given the porous Chargers’ run defense, Indy’s playbook will feature a lot of Jonathan Taylor grinding behind an offensive line ranked No. 4 in run block win rate. The Colts can control possession and pace and park L.A. quarterback Justin Herbert on the sideline.
An already one-dimensional Los Angeles offense (missing its top two RBs and passing at a 65% rate the last three games) is easier to scheme for. The Colts’ secondary is running more man coverage, and Herbert’s completion rate and passer rating tank versus one-on-one schemes.
Houston Texans (+3.5) vs Seattle Seahawks
Best bet: Texans +3.5
(-110 at bet365)
Much like the new “Tron” movie, the Houston Texans’ 2-3 record isn’t as bad as you think.
Houston lost three straight games to start the year against quality clubs in the Rams, Bucs, and Jaguars. All were one-possession decisions, two of those L’s came away from home, and the scores were tight despite five total turnovers from the Texans.
Cake walks against the terrible Titans and the injury-ravaged Ravens served as quick fixes for this awful offense. The Texans put up 70 combined points in those wins after amassing 38 in the opening three weeks.
Yes, recent opposition was soft. However, the Texans made adjustments that sparked scoring beyond just playing a bad opponent, and they have had a bye week to tighten the bolts on that attack.
New offensive coordinator Nick Caley came down from the booth and improved the pace and timing by calling plays on the field. That’s helped QB C.J. Stroud and lifted Houston to No. 4 in EPA per play and No. 9 in offensive DVOA since Week 4 — two analytics that adjust for strength of opponent.
Backing up those offensive improvements is this elite defense. Houston is notably stingy versus the pass, ranking No. 3 in EPA allowed per dropback, No. 5 in opponent success rate per pass, No. 3 in pass defense DVOA at FTN, and No. 4 in pass rush rating at PFF.
If the Texans can keep Stroud upright against the Seattle Seahawks’ pass rush, this could be one of the better two-way teams in the AFC. I like Houston with the hook on Monday night.
My NFL Underdogs column is 10-8 this season for +0.88 units.
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