Fantasy hockey stock watch: Who’s up, who’s down and why?

There are a lot of ingredients that go into the meat grinder when we are crafting up fantasy rankings.

Without getting into how the sausage is made too much, there’s a blend of weighted fantasy points per game averages, which are then modified by a model generated by historical comparables for each individual skater. For goaltenders, it’s even more complex with current and past team dynamics, combined with a manual crease share estimation also thrown into the mix.

But they’re never quite perfect. Some sausages don’t have the right spice blend, the proper fat ratio, or the right bind.

It’s even trickier when the meat is out of season; the offseason grind often produces sausages that are a little … undercooked.

The ESPN fantasy hockey rankings got an in-season update for the first time on Friday. The previous rankings were for preseason drafts.

Since then, some of the sausages have turned out surprisingly well, while others are still a bit raw. Certain players who were ranked far too low have been flipped, now seasoned and ready for the table, while others who were overhyped have fallen apart.

Jump ahead: Goalies | Power Play

Undercooked

Linus Ullmark, G, Ottawa Senators (previously ranked 266; 54 last week): This applies to Ullmark and several other goaltenders. They are the toughest to project. Even now, Ullmark only has 0.6 fantasy points on the season. But what we are looking for above all else are positive team outcomes and workload. Ullmark has both of those going for him, so his season-long projection has come a long way since last spring.

Chris Kreider, LW, Anaheim Ducks (previously ranked 287; 114 last week): Five games into the season, in-season outcomes have already changed his fortunes. The energy the Ducks have shown — with Kreider in the heart of the attack, when he’s not ill — has been significant enough to suggest Kreider’s goal-scoring ways are making a return.

Shane Pinto, C, Ottawa Senators (previously ranked 248; 102 last week): Good things can happen when you shoot. Pinto fired 1.8 shots per game last season. He’s averaging 4.0 per game this season. No wonder he’s already taken down more than a third of his career-high goal total in just 10 games.

Dylan Larkin, C, Detroit Red Wings (previously ranked 154; 18 last week): It certainly looks like Larkin finally has the talent around him to be the dominant fantasy force that’s been just under the surface for years. Only 10 other skaters have started with better per-game fantasy totals.

Jaden Schwartz, LW, Seattle Kraken (previously ranked 200; 126 last week): To be fair, it still feels tricky to pick which members of the Kraken will truly be the ones rising to the top by season’s end. But Schwartz certainly has the early reins as offensive leader, with four goals and eight points across nine games.

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Jaden Schwartz taps in the opener for the Kraken

Jaden Schwartz taps in the opener for the Kraken

Overcooked

Andrei Svechnikov, LW, Carolina Hurricanes (previously ranked 139; 438 last week): Just 0.3 fantasy points per game? Svechnikov can recover from this atrocious start, but he has some hills to climb to do so. And it will be too late for fantasy managers.

Steven Stamkos, C, Nashville Predators (previously ranked 101; 341 last week): It seems last season wasn’t an aberration, but simply the new normal. Stamkos is not a fantasy force on the Predators.

Matt Duchene, C, Dallas Stars (previously ranked 105; 303 last week): Having Duchene as depth is going to payoff for the Stars, but fantasy managers can’t afford to wait for his number to be called up the depth chart.

Drew Doughty, D, Los Angeles Kings (previously ranked 99; 235 last week): Without the power play, Doughty’s stat line is getting a bit thin for fantasy. As long as the Kings keep their five-forward advantage, Doughty is out of the mix.

Goalie notes

Here’s this week’s selection of goaltending snapshots, showing crease shares, fantasy production, and key notes where relevant.

Buffalo Sabres in nine games (four last week):

• Alex Lyon (crease share season/week: 77.3%/49.3%, fantasy points season/week: 21.8/3.6, 81.8% available)

• Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (crease share season/week: 11.5%/25.7%, fantasy points season/week: -3.4/-3.4, 88.7% available)

• Colten Ellis (crease share season/week: 11.2%/25.0%, fantasy points season/week: 5.4/5.4, 99.9% available)

Luukkonen might not have started on the weekend if Ellis hadn’t been hurt, so this crease is getting quite intriguing. And with Lyon ranked eighth among goaltenders for fantasy points, it’s worth paying attention to how the rotation shapes out now.

Columbus Blue Jackets in eight games (three last week):

• Elvis Merzlikins (crease share season/week: 50.7%/67.6%, fantasy points season/week: 13.6/7.6, 73.1% available)

• Jet Greaves (crease share season/week: 49.3%/32.4%, fantasy points season/week: 2.4/-5.0, 93.1% available)

Chicago Blackhawks in nine games (two last week):

• Spencer Knight (crease share season/week: 67.1%/50.8%, fantasy points season/week: 24.6/5.8, 50.5% available)

• Arvid Soderblom (crease share season/week: 32.9%/49.2%, fantasy points season/week: 1.2/-0.2, 99.6% available)

Success in a losing cause isn’t an easy task, but volume looks like it will keep Knight as a fantasy play going forward. Only four other goaltenders have more fantasy points so far, despite Knight sitting on just three wins.

Colorado Avalanche in 10 games (five last week):

• Scott Wedgewood (crease share season/week: 81.4%/53.8%, fantasy points season/week: 19.8/-10.6, 29.5% available)

• Trent Miner (crease share season/week: 18.6%/46.2%, fantasy points season/week: 2.0/2.0, 99.4% available)

Three consecutive outings with negative fantasy points shows the risks inherent with backups like Wedgewood. When things are good, it’s great, but when they are not, they really are not. Mackenzie Blackwood is due back soon. He should be rostered in every league, but is available in about a quarter of them.

Edmonton Oilers in 10 games (four last week):

• Stuart Skinner (crease share season/week: 60.2%/49.8%, fantasy points season/week: 10.0/1.8, 32.3% available)

• Calvin Pickard (crease share season/week: 39.8%/50.2%, fantasy points season/week: -3.6/-4.0, 97.3% available)

Montreal Canadiens in 10 games (four last week):

• Jakub Dobes (crease share season/week: 50.5%/75.2%, fantasy points season/week: 30.2/18.8, 51.4% available)

• Sam Montembeault (crease share season/week: 49.5%/24.8%, fantasy points season/week: -9.8/-7.4, 37.0% available)

Sure, it’s been about 50-50 so far, but Dobes continues his hostile takeover and is a must-roster in all leagues.

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Jakub Dobes robs Flames with save

Jakub Dobes robs Flames with save

New Jersey Devils in nine games (four last week):

• Jake Allen (crease share season/week: 63.2%/75.2%, fantasy points season/week: 24.2/12.0, 66.1% available)

• Jacob Markstrom (crease share season/week: 25.7%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -0.2/DNP, 45.7% available)

• Nico Daws (crease share season/week: 11.1%/24.8%, fantasy points season/week: 7.8/7.8, 99.3% available)

Philadelphia Flyers in eight games (three last week):

• Dan Vladar (crease share season/week: 61.3%/64.3%, fantasy points season/week: 18.6/6.4, 87.4% available)

• Samuel Ersson (crease share season/week: 38.7%/35.7%, fantasy points season/week: -3.4/2.6, 97.7% available)

Toronto Maple Leafs in nine games (three last week):

• Anthony Stolarz (crease share season/week: 77.4%/65.3%, fantasy points season/week: -1.6/-7.0, 17.2% available)

• Cayden Primeau (crease share season/week: 22.6%/34.7%, fantasy points season/week: 3.8/2.6, 99.3% available)

Back at practice, Joseph Woll should be in game action sooner than later, relieving the pressure on Stolarz and hopefully getting both of them back to roster-worthy, as they managed to stay all last season.

Vancouver Canucks in 10 games (four last week):

• Thatcher Demko (crease share season/week: 59.7%/50.5%, fantasy points season/week: 21.2/5.8, 16.4% available)

• Kevin Lankinen (crease share season/week: 40.3%/49.5%, fantasy points season/week: -5.6/-9.8, 96.3% available)

Right now, it’s roughly a 60-40 split. The Lankinen contract gave us pause about a potential tandem during the offseason, but Demko is establishing clear separation. Good news for managers invested in Demko: volume is all he needs to climb from middling to near the top of fantasy goaltenders.

Power-play notes

Pavel Zacha, C, Boston Bruins (available in 74.5%)

Jason Zucker, LW, Buffalo Sabres (available in 88.0%)

If you need a specific boost in power-play points in a medium or deep fantasy league, surnames starting with Z might be the way to go. Zacha and Zucker don’t offer a lot at 5-on-5, but are both key cogs of their respective power-play units.

Zayne Parekh, D, Calgary Flames (available in 94.6%): Tuesday’s tilt is a big one for Parekh. The Flames have been rolling him into the quarterback role across the past few games and it’s a homecoming for him. But most importantly, it’s his ninth game, which is the last one the Flames get before he loses eligibility to go back to the OHL.

Valeri Nichushkin, RW, Colorado Avalanche (available in 56.1%): Elevated to the top unit over Brock Nelson, the results are starting to come in after a slow start for Nichushkin. If the second line ever gets going at even strength, he’ll become a must-have, but he fits fantasy rosters as a power-play specialist already.

David Tomasek, RW, Edmonton Oilers (available in 99.7%): It’s been nine games and the Oilers aren’t moving off Tomasek as the fifth forward on what could be one of the best power plays in the league. At some point, Connor McDavid will start scoring more, and some of that action will come on the power play. It’s worth considering Tomasek as a bench stash.

Ivan Demidov, RW, Montreal Canadiens (available in 49.7%): The Habs have switched to Demidov over Zach Bolduc on the top unit, which elevates Demidov’s potential significantly. We just need him to start shooting more.

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Ivan Demidov scores goal for Canadiens

Ivan Demidov nets goal for Canadiens

Brady Skjei, D, Nashville Predators (available in 44.4%): Someone has to fill in for an injured Roman Josi. That doesn’t mean you want Skjei on your fantasy team, but it’s at least worth noting. The unit did pick up a goal with Skjei at the helm already.

Trevor Zegras, C, Philadelphia Flyers (available in 45.8%): Zegras has been on the ice for all four of the Flyers power-play goals so far this season. He’s currently on what might be the second unit on paper, but is the first unit in practice, with three goals across the past three games.

Anthony Mantha, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins (available in 90.3%): The early answer to who replaces Rickard Rakell on the Pens top unit, Mantha has some potential with this added assignment. His 5-on-5 line with Evgeni Malkin and Justin Brazeau is on fire. Admittedly, they’ll cool off at some point, but they are hot now. Add in some looks with Sidney Crosby on the advantage, and we could have some fantasy value for the medium-term.

Shea Theodore, D, Vegas Golden Knights (available in 28.8%): So, either the Knights are in a serious funk on the advantage, or Mark Stone is absolutely critical to the attack. The top unit with Stone as part of a five-forward group had eight goals across 22:04 with 4.71 shot attempts per two minutes. With Theodore on the point and Stone injured, the group has no goals and 0.66 shot attempts per two minutes across 6:06.